Jud Fabian

Organization Prospect Rankings

• 
  Ranked Baltimore Orioles #13 prospect in 2024
  BA Grade: 50/Very High
  
  Track Record: The Red Sox drafted Fabian in the second round in 2021 but he returned to Florida for his senior year to team up with his younger brother Deric. Jud ended up signing with the Orioles--who were connected to him for an above-slot deal the year before--for $1.03 million as the 67th pick in the 2022 draft. Fabian fared well at High-A Aberdeen to begin 2023 before an all-or-nothing profile emerged at Double-A Bowie, where he struck out 108 times with 15 home runs in 288 plate appearances.
  
  Scouting Report: Fabian kept his strikeout rate manageable at Aberdeen, but some of the hit tool issues he came out of Florida with resurfaced when he struck out nearly 38% of the time at Bowie. Much of that came as higher-level pitchers attacked him with high fastballs, which Fabian struggled to reach with his uphill swing. He could still have plus power in games, which would be a requirement if his hit tool is only fringe-avearge. Defensively, Fabian is a true plus center fielder with advanced instincts, range and playmaking ability and an above-average arm, giving him the potential to play the position every day in the big leagues.
  
  The Future: Fabian’s defense alone could make him a second-division regular or platoon player on a playoff team, and his contact ability is the only thing that is limiting him to that type of role. He’ll likely be back at Bowie to attack those issues to begin 2024.
  
  Scouting Grades Hit: 40 | Power: 60 | Run: 60 | Field: 60 | Arm: 55
• 
  Ranked Baltimore Orioles #14 prospect in 2023
  BA Grade/Risk: 50/Very High
  
  Track Record: Fabian entered 2021 as a potential top pick candidate but struggled to make contact, forcing him out of the first round. The Orioles were connected to him for an above-slot deal in the second round, and when Boston took him one pick ahead of Baltimore and didn't meet his bonus demands, Fabian returned to Florida for his senior season to play with his younger brother Deric. Fabian cut down on his strikeouts in 2022 and ultimately ended up with the Orioles anyway, signing for slot at $1.03 million.
  
  Scouting Report: As a pro, he destroyed Low-A Delmarva thanks to his ability to recognize spin and pound fastballs, and High-A Aberdeen in September proved a more appropriate challenge. Overall, however, the Orioles saw an exciting skillset that features at least plus power, an advanced approach at the plate, and the potential for plus defense in center field. Fabian was among the organizational leaders with 41.8% of his batted balls above 95 mph. While the Orioles appreciate how he managed his strikeouts and continued to slug in college, they understand that will be part of his game thanks to some natural swing-and-miss that they believe is manageable. He made immediate gains in terms of formulating plans at the plate, and showed he can cover the high fastball well in his pro debut, with the next step being defending against right-handed spin.
  
  The Future: If Fabian can make enough contact to be a fringe-average hitter, his power and defensive tools can support an everyday role on a winning club. He'll likely start his first full season back at Aberdeen, but could move quickly.
  
  Scouting Grades: Hit: 45. Power: 60. Speed: 60. Fielding: 60. Arm: 50.

Draft Prospects

• Ranked #61 prospect in 2022 draft
  School: Florida Committed/Drafted: Red Sox ’21 (2)
  Age At Draft: 21.8
  BA Grade: 55/Extreme
  Scouting Grades: Hit: 40 | Power: 55 | Run: 55 | Field: 65 | Arm: 55
  Fabian enrolled early at Florida and was draft-eligible in 2021 as one of the younger college players in the class. He ranked as the No. 27 prospect on the 2021 BA 500 and the Red Sox drafted him in the second round, but the two sides failed to come to terms and Fabian went back to Gainesville for his third college season. A 6-foot-2, 195-pound center fielder, Fabian is a standout athlete who has impressive power, speed and defensive tools. The biggest question in his profile is his pure hitting ability. Fabian has a keen eye at the plate and rarely expands the zone, and after walking 14.9% of the time in 2021 has increased that mark to 20% in 2022. He’s managed that walk rate while also hitting for a career-best 24 home runs. While most of that power has come to the pull side, scouts believe Fabian has real plus raw power. Despite that power and on-base ability, Fabian has never hit above .300 with Florida and this spring against conference competition in 30 games he hit .193 with 37 strikeouts and 33 walks. Defensively, Fabian is one of the better center fielders in the class, with solid speed, athleticism and instincts to stick at the position and be an impact defender. Given his tool set and up-the-middle profile, there’s plenty of upside—especially for a team who believes they can help him make more contact—but his swing-and-miss tendencies create plenty of risk as well.
• Ranked #27 prospect in 2021 draft
  Fabian has become one of the biggest conundrums of the 2021 draft class. One of the youngest college players in the class after graduating from high school early and enrolling at Florida, Fabian won’t turn 21 until September and has been a standout defensive center fielder for the Gators since the day he stepped on campus. On top of that, this spring he has been among the top home run hitters in the country and through 57 games was tied for sixth among Division I bats with 20 dingers. Fabian’s age, defensive profile and power output should have him as one of the top players in the class, but teams have plenty of concerns about his pure feel for hitting and his high strikeout rates. He entered the year with question marks about his swing and miss against spin but has whiffed more than 30% against each pitch type. Fabian has attempted to make some tweaks mechanically to cut down on his strikeouts, removing a leg kick in two-strike counts which did help him lower his strikeout rate, but it’s still higher than the 25% mark teams generally prefer with first-round bats. Fabian does have solid bat speed and plus raw power that has translated mostly to the pull side, but he’s hit a few impressive homers over the right-field fence as well. A righthanded hitter and lefthanded thrower, Fabian should have no issues handling center field and playing it at a high level defensively at the next level. He’s an above-average runner but what makes him a special defender are his defensive instincts, first step, reads off the bat, athleticism and arm strength. He’s at least a plus defender in the outfield and some scouts have gone as far as putting double-plus grades on his glove, making him one of the best defensive center fielders in the 2021 draft class. While some teams might be scared off given the swing and miss, Fabian has upside with his age, power and defensive profile and has more leverage than most college hitters at the top of the draft considering he would still be age-appropriate in the 2022 class.

• February, 2023 Scouting Report
  BA Grade/Risk: 50/Very High
  
  Track Record: Fabian entered 2021 as a potential top pick candidate but struggled to make contact, forcing him out of the first round. The Orioles were connected to him for an above-slot deal in the second round, and when Boston took him one pick ahead of Baltimore and didn't meet his bonus demands, Fabian returned to Florida for his senior season to play with his younger brother Deric. Fabian cut down on his strikeouts in 2022 and ultimately ended up with the Orioles anyway, signing for slot at $1.03 million.
  
  Scouting Report: As a pro, he destroyed Low-A Delmarva thanks to his ability to recognize spin and pound fastballs, and High-A Aberdeen in September proved a more appropriate challenge. Overall, however, the Orioles saw an exciting skillset that features at least plus power, an advanced approach at the plate, and the potential for plus defense in center field. Fabian was among the organizational leaders with 41.8% of his batted balls above 95 mph. While the Orioles appreciate how he managed his strikeouts and continued to slug in college, they understand that will be part of his game thanks to some natural swing-and-miss that they believe is manageable. He made immediate gains in terms of formulating plans at the plate, and showed he can cover the high fastball well in his pro debut, with the next step being defending against right-handed spin.
  
  The Future: If Fabian can make enough contact to be a fringe-average hitter, his power and defensive tools can support an everyday role on a winning club. He'll likely start his first full season back at Aberdeen, but could move quickly.
  
  Scouting Grades: Hit: 45. Power: 60. Speed: 60. Fielding: 60. Arm: 50.
• December, 2022 Scouting Report
  BA Grade/Risk: 50/Very High
  
  Track Record: Fabian entered 2021 as a potential top pick candidate but struggled to make contact, forcing him out of the first round. The Orioles were connected to him for an above-slot deal in the second round, and when Boston took him one pick ahead of Baltimore and didn't meet his bonus demands, Fabian returned to Florida for his senior season to play with his younger brother Deric. Fabian cut down on his strikeouts in 2022 and ultimately ended up with the Orioles anyway, signing for slot at $1.03 million.
  
  Scouting Report: As a pro, he destroyed Low-A Delmarva thanks to his ability to recognize spin and pound fastballs, and High-A Aberdeen in September proved a more appropriate challenge. Overall, however, the Orioles saw an exciting skillset that features at least plus power, an advanced approach at the plate, and the potential for plus defense in center field. Fabian was among the organizational leaders with 41.8% of his batted balls above 95 mph. While the Orioles appreciate how he managed his strikeouts and continued to slug in college, they understand that will be part of his game thanks to some natural swing-and-miss that they believe is manageable. He made immediate gains in terms of formulating plans at the plate, and showed he can cover the high fastball well in his pro debut, with the next step being defending against right-handed spin.
  
  The Future: If Fabian can make enough contact to be a fringe-average hitter, his power and defensive tools can support an everyday role on a winning club. He'll likely start his first full season back at Aberdeen, but could move quickly.
  
  Scouting Grades: Hit: 45. Power: 60. Speed: 60. Fielding: 60. Arm: 50.
• April, 2022 Scouting Report
  BA Grade: 55/Extreme
  
  August Update: Fabian enrolled early at Florida and was draft-eligible in 2021 as one of the younger college players in the class. He ranked as the No. 27 prospect on the 2021 BA 500 and the Red Sox drafted him in the second round, but the two sides failed to come to terms and Fabian went back to Gainesville for his third college season. A 6-foot-2, 195-pound center fielder, Fabian is a standout athlete who has impressive power, speed and defensive tools. The biggest question in his profile is his pure hitting ability. Fabian has a keen eye at the plate and rarely expands the zone, and after walking 14.9% of the time in 2021 has increased that mark to 20% in 2022. He&#39s managed that walk rate while also hitting for a career-best 24 home runs. While most of that power has come to the pull side, scouts believe Fabian has real plus raw power. Despite that power and on-base ability, Fabian has never hit above .300 with Florida and this spring against conference competition in 30 games he hit .193 with 37 strikeouts and 33 walks. Defensively, Fabian is one of the better center fielders in the class, with solid speed, athleticism and instincts to stick at the position and be an impact defender. Given his tool set and up-the-middle profile, there&#39s plenty of upside but his swing-and-miss tendencies create plenty of risk as well. Fabian signed with the Orioles for $1,026,800 after being selected in the second supplemental round.