The Orioles’ homegrown middle infield of shortstop Gunnar Henderson and second baseman Jackson Holliday will be together for a long time. 

Henderson won American League Rookie of the Year last year and is under Baltimore club control through 2028. 

Holliday is a favorite to win ROY this year—though the AL class is deep with the Rangers’ duo of Evan Carter and Wyatt Langford and the Rays’ Junior Caminero—and will be tied to the Orioles through the 2029 season.

Long before that point, Henderson and Holliday may establish a new precedent.

The post Orioles’ Double-Play Combo Of Gunnar Henderson and Jackson Holliday Truly Are Rare Birds appeared first on College Baseball, MLB Draft, Prospects - Baseball America.

The game’s top prospect joined No. 1 overall prospects Gunnar Henderson and Adley Rutschman on the big league club less than two years after being drafted. Now the trio will form an exceptional core that should help the Orioles compete in the AL East for the foreseeable future. 

We’ve written and talked about how the Holliday pick for the Orioles at 1-1 in the 2022 draft wasn’t the draft day no-brainer that Adley Rutschman was for the club in 2019. But other picks also highlight Baltimore and Mike Elias’s savvy—and money-saving—top-of-the-draft selections. Perhaps none more than 2021 and 2020 first rounders Colton Cowser and Heston Kjerstad. 

Cowser made the Orioles opening day roster and just last night was instrumental in the team’s 9-4 extra-inning win over the Red Sox. He went 3-for-5 with his first and second homers of his big league career and through 11 games is slashing .458/.462/.917 with seven extra-base hits. 

Kjerstad is still knocking on the door with Triple-A Norfolk, but led our first Hot Sheet of the season and has exploded out of the gate with six home runs in his first 11 games and a .413/.500/.891 slash line. Were he with another organization he might have begun the season with a big league team like Cowser did.

Cowser was the fifth overall pick in the 2021 draft. Kjerstad was picked second overall in 2020. Neither picks were consensus selections on draft day and both ranked just outside of the top 10 in their respective draft classes. Several years later, both look like excellent picks and also had the benefit of creating more bonus pool flexibility for the team to use on subsequent picks. 

The Kjerstad selection in 2020 is perhaps the best example. The 2020 draft was as difficult as any class for teams to evaluate given the shortened season in the middle of the covid pandemic. The Tigers took No. 1 draft prospect Spencer Torkelson with the first overall pick and the Orioles went off the board for Kjerstad at No. 2. We ranked Kjerstad as the No. 13 prospect in the draft class and expected him to be selected more in the middle of the first round than at the very top.

On draft day I wrote that the Blue Jays could potentially be one of the day one winners after getting No. 2 prospect Austin Martin with the fifth overall pick. In the same piece I wrote that the Orioles threw a curveball with their Kjerstad selection, noted his power and also the fact that it felt like a potential under-slot move that could allow them to be aggressive on day two. 

The post Colton Cowser, Heston Kjerstad Highlight Orioles’ Top-Of-The-Draft Strategy appeared first on College Baseball, MLB Draft, Prospects - Baseball America.

Adley Rutschman’s MLB debut? Missed it.

Gunnar Henderson’s? Missed it.

Grayson Rodriguez’s? Same.

So Jackson Holliday’s much anticipated MLB arrival was off limits to me, and almost anyone else in North Carolina (as well as many viewers in Virginia, Maryland and D.C.)

You know why.

It’s a bane of baseball.

(And yes, I know there are ways around it. Please don’t tell me I should be scouring Reddit threads or using VPNs, I’m talking about how this should be solved for fans in an easy/legal/non-technical way my parents could understand).

Days like yesterday are a frequent reminder of what baseball loses because of an arcane system. Most baseball fans in North Carolina couldn’t watch Holliday’s debut, even though they live a six-hour drive away from Camden Yards. Big Inning (which doesn’t black out pop-ins) helps, but as the O’s have gone from afterthought to AL East champs, for me their stars go from must-watch TV in the minors to can’t watch TV when they reach the majors.

Our blind spots in Eastern North Carolina are Orioles and Nationals games. No matter where you live in the U.S., you are likely blacked out of at least one team, and if you live in Iowa, MLB.tv becomes semi-useless with six teams on the blackout list.

It’s a problem for baseball, and one that MLB knows it has to fix.

“Blackouts are the kind of opposite side of the coin of reach. We need to deliver product to fans who want to watch on platforms that they customarily use at a realistic price. That is our No. 1 priority,” Rob Manfred told reporters at a 2023 press conference.

It’s easy to blame Major League Baseball for the problem, but it’s more reasonable to criticize MLB for allowing the problem to develop years ago. MLB officials have made it clear they realize the blackout system is bad for the sport’s growth. And whenever MLB has taken over a team’s RSN rights, it’s provided a way for people in that local market to stream games without blackouts.

Blackouts are an artifact of a different media world. In the 1980s/1990s when many of these regional sports networks sprung up, if you paid for television, you had your local cable system. Streaming wasn’t even a possibility in an era of 56K modems. There was very little choice, and even when satellite TV sprung up, your choices went from one provider to two or three.

Everyone who paid for TV channels in an area had cable or satellite. Your local teams were on the cable system (and on DirectTV), so no matter where you lived, you got to see your closest teams, whether they were local or not.

And that led to plenty of greed, which only added to the problem. There should have always been a rule that any area can only be within the “local” market of two teams at most. And logically, those markets should have had radiuses of a few hundred miles. If you live a day’s drive from any big league ballpark, no team is your “local” team.

Instead of tying blackout regions logically, it became a land grab with teams trying to claim as large an area as possible for their “local” footprint. That’s how you end up with the Cardinals, Twins, Cubs, White Sox, Brewers and Royals all claiming Iowa as home turf.

Something should have been done about that in the 1990s/2000s, as it defies logic to expect any cable system to carry six (!) different regional sports networks. All this did was ensure that baseball fans in Iowa would have no reason to try to watch a lot of MLB games.

But the blackout system in general made at least some sense in a world dominated by cable TV. In 2024, it just doesn’t. As cable systems saw vast swaths of their customers cut the cord, they focused more and more on cutting the fees they pay to channels. And RSNs, which had usually negotiated placement on the most basic cable TV tier, were a logical target.

Non-sports fans were paying significant chunks of ever-growing cable bills to RSN channels they never watched. As Internet TV providers sprung up, they found they could offer lower-cost bundles by avoiding adding these niche channels.

So nowadays, if I wanted to get MASN (the Orioles’ TV network) in North Carolina, I can’t get it through my local cable system. MASN lists only five cable systems in the entire state of North Carolina that offer it, and three of those are cable systems serving cities of fewer than 10,000 people. I can’t get it through the vast multitude of Internet TV providers (YouTube TV, Hulu, Sling, etc.). DirectTV is the only real option.

There’s some version of this story happening all around the country. Even diehard fans are unlikely to pick a TV provider solely because it offers an RSN, but in many cases, it’s not even an option. We now live in a world where a baseball fan may not even have a realistic option to pay to watch their “local” team.

And with this, baseball loses chances to get casual fans excited about these moments. It’s a problem that hopefully is nearing its expiration point.

By the time Ethan Holliday reaches the major leagues, hopefully these blackouts will be as much an ancient memory as The Baseball Network or radio-only games.

The post Cooper: MLB Blackouts Impact Baseball Fans’ Ability To Witness History appeared first on College Baseball, MLB Draft, Prospects - Baseball America.

The much-talked about pitcher injury epidemic. Velocity and max effort throwing certainly seems like a factor, but what about others like the pitch clock? New pitching development and pitch design? Managing workloads too critically or not critically enough? Changes to youth baseball and the velocity you’re seeing at those levels? What about shoulder injuries?

After that the two move on to the top pitching prospect in baseball, Paul Skenes who made quick work of Triple-A hitters in his first two starts of the season. They talk about how he’s looked and get into another conversation about fastball shape and why it’s not the end all be all for pitchers and also wonder about when he should be promoted to the majors.

Next the two pivot to the 2024 draft class and talk about the barrage of home runs that Wake Forest first baseman Nick Kurtz has hit in the last two weeks. Has he re-entered the 1-1 conversation and how does he stack up against fellow first baseman Jac Caglianone tool-for-tool? That leads into a conversation about the top of the draft class generally, and Ben asks about who the best pitcher in the class is after Chase Burns and Hagen Smith which leads to talk about ECU righthander Trey Yesavage. After that Ben brings up another righthander who might deserve a bit more attention in Vanderbilt righthander Bryce Cunningham.

The two close the podcast with thoughts on Boston’s contract extension of center fielder and shortstop Ceddanne Rafaela.

Time Stamps

(0:00) Jackson Holliday
(14:00) Retiring numbers
(18:00) The pitcher injury epidemic
(25:00) High school pitchers throwing harder
(33:00) Ben’s thoughts on shoulder injuries
(35:30) Is the pitch clock a factor?
(38:00) Paul Skenes and fastball shape
(49:00) When should Skenes be in the majors?
(55:00) Nick Kurtz’s home run binge
(1:05:00) Nick Kurtz vs. Jac Caglianone
(1:15:00) ECU RHP Trey Yesavage
(1:25:00) Vanderbilt RHP Bryce Cunningham
(1:30:00) The Ceddanne Rafaela contract extension

Want more podcasts like this one? Subscribe below!

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The post Future Projection Episode 84: (Jackson) Holliday Season & Paul Skenes Domination appeared first on College Baseball, MLB Draft, Prospects - Baseball America.

Holliday, Baseball America’s No. 1 prospect on the Top 100 as well as Baseball America’s 2023 Minor League Player of the Year, was hitting .333/.482/.595 for Triple-A Norfolk in 10 games. Holliday was the No. 1 pick in the 2022 MLB Draft as well as Baseball America’s 2022 High School Player of the Year.

Holliday’s promotion comes after he the past week and a half in the minors playing second base, which is expected to become his primary position in the majors. The Orioles also wanted him to get some at-bats against lefthanders. In 11 plate appearances against lefties so far this season, he was 4-for-10 with two doubles, a home run and a sacrifice fly for a .400/.364/.900 slash line. He had not struck out against a lefty.

Because he’s coming up so quickly, he will be eligible for the Prospect Promotion Incentive, which means the Orioles will receive a bonus draft pick if he wins the American League Rookie of the Year. A player must reach 172 days of service to be eligible for PPI. If he is active tomorrow and stays up for the remainder of the season, he will have 173 days of service.

If Holliday were to win American League Rookie of the Year this year, then the Orioles receive a PPI draft pick after the first round of the 2025 draft.

Baltimore would have two more chances to add a pick even if Holliday fails to win ROY. A top three finish in MVP voting in 2025 or 2026 would also trigger a PPI draft pick.

The Orioles could have kept Holliday at Triple-A for a few additional days and gained an additional year of club control. While that must have been tempting, the latest Collective Bargaining Agreement disincentives teams from manipulating service for elite prospects.

Any player who finishes first or second in Rookie of the Year voting is awarded one year of MLB service, no matter when he was called up.

Holliday is so talented that he could have been called up in May or maybe even June and would still be a threat to finish first or second for the ROY award.

If Holliday receives one year of MLB service, then the Orioles would be best served to receive one year of MLB production.

The son of long-time big leaguer Matt Holliday, Jackson will make his MLB debut as a 20-year-old. He’ll become the youngest player in the American League and the second youngest player in the major leagues (Jackson Chourio is younger). He is the youngest Oriole to debut since Dylan Bundy in Sept. 2012 and the youngest Orioles position player since Manny Machado arrived in August 2012.

Here’s more on Holliday’s promotion and what to expect from Baseball America’s YouTube channel.

The post Report: Orioles Call Up Jackson Holliday To Major Leagues appeared first on College Baseball, MLB Draft, Prospects - Baseball America.

This volume of thievery is especially impressive because fewer hitters stop at first base today than they have for most of the 30-team era. The total of singles plus walks plus hit by pitches last season was 43,962, the sixth-lowest total of the past 25 full seasons.

It’s no secret that a series of rules changes spurred the stolen base surge of 2023. What may be less appreciated is where those stolen bases are coming from.

Every batting order position saw an uptick in stolen-base attempts in 2023 compared with 2022. These comparison points are a perfect snapshot, given that both seasons featured the universal DH but were played with different rules governing time between pitches, disengagements from the pitching rubber and base size. 

Stolen Bases Attempted By Batting Order Position

The results are even more dramatic than this. 

Bottom-of-the-order hitters have fewer overall stolen-base opportunities because they bat fewer times and also reach base far less often than batters at the top of the order. If we restate the above as stolen bases attempted in relation to estimated times on first base we see the following.

Stolen Bases Attempted In Relation To Times On First Base

Now we see that No. 9 hitters took advantage of the new MLB milieu more than any other lineup position, and No. 8 hitters had the third-highest increase in stolen base attempt rate.

And while leadoff hitters increased their raw stolen base output more than any batting order position but No. 2 hitters, in fact their rate of attempts increased by about two per 100 times on first base, which was just the fifth-highest year-over-year increase.

When you stop to think, it makes sense that No. 8 and 9 hitters would attempt stolen bases nearly as often as leadoff hitters.

• Many players batting eighth or ninth are strong defensive players with plus athleticism and minus hitting ability. 

On that point, the leaders in stolen bases out of the No. 9 spot last year were Jorge Mateo (15), Myles Straw (13), Esteury Ruiz (13), Brenton Doyle (13) and Jose Caballero (12).   

It’s a similar story with No. 8 hitters. The stolen-base leaders were Brice Turang (14), Ji-Hwan Bae (12), Will Benson (11), Dairon Blanco (10) and Drew Waters (10).

• Bottom-of-the-order hitters are less effective hitters overall who are more likely to gain only one base when they do reach. Since it’s easier to steal second base than third or home, these players increase their value by stealing second base occasionally.

• The benefit of a No. 9 hitter gaining an extra base often outweighs the cost of being thrown out. Advancing into scoring position for the top of the order has tremendous value, especially with two outs. Scoring a runner from first base with two outs is unlikely, so moving to second base has enhanced value in that game state.

Even if the basestealer is unsuccessful, the leadoff hitter begins the next inning. 

Early in the 2024 season, we are seeing No. 8 and 9 hitters attempting stolen bases at the same high rate as leadoff hitters, though overall takeoff rates are lower than last year—caveat: It’s early, but still much higher than they were in 2022.

The post In New MLB Milieu, Bottom-Of-The-Order Hitters Have Become Unsung Men Of Steal appeared first on College Baseball, MLB Draft, Prospects - Baseball America.

2024 MLB Mock Draft 1.0

Welcome to the first in-season MLB mock draft for the 2024 class.

Read More…

Below are the full bonus pool amounts for each team: 

The slot values for the draft are determined each year by matching the growth in revenues in baseball. The 2023 draft had a first overall pick with a slot value of $9,721,000 compared to this year’s $10,570,600 1-1 slot value—an 8.7% increase.  

The total bonus pool value for all clubs in the 2024 draft checks in at $334,375,000, which is more than $27 million more than the total bonus pool value from the 2023 draft—$307,335,300.

The 2023 draft saw two players sign for $9 million or more, with Paul Skenes shattering the all-time draft bonus record with a $9.2 million bonus as the first overall pick and LSU teammate Dylan Crews checking in just behind at $9 million as the second overall pick.

The teams picking in the top three in 2024 each have the top three bonus pools to work with, though the Rockies (picking No. 3 overall) have the second-largest bonus pool at $17,243,400, while the Reds (picking No. 2 overall) have the third-largest bonus pool at $15,842,100. This is primarily because the Rockies have a supplemental first-round pick that comes with nearly a $2.5 million slot value and the fact that the Rockies will pick third overall in each round following the first, while the Reds will pick 12th.

2024 Top MLB Draft Prospects

Baseball America’s draft rankings are an attempt to capture the industry’s consensus on the talent of the 2024 draft class.

Read More…

The D-backs have a tremendous amount of bonus pool money to work with considering where they are picking in the first round. Despite picking 29th overall, Arizona’s $12,662,000 bonus pool is the 10th largest and a greater total pool than each of the teams picking in the 18-30 range. This is the impact of a PPI selection (via Corbin Carroll) just after the first round worth $2.9 million in slot value as well as a supplemental first-round selection worth $2.6 million in slot value. Those picks and additional bonus pool money could allow Arizona to be proactive and creative in how it navigates the draft board.

On the other end of the spectrum, the Cardinals have just a $10,213,000 total bonus pool while picking 7th overall. That bonus pool is good for 17th-most overall and less than every other team with a top-12 pick.

Each pick among the top 10 rounds carries a slot value, and the individual amounts added together get each team’s total bonus pool. Teams are able to use that money however they like in the draft—i.e. each pick doesn’t automatically sign for the assigned slot value—with penalties incurring if teams go over their total bonus pools. 

Many teams will go over their total bonus pools and incur a tax, though no team has ever gone over the 5% threshold that triggers pick loss penalties in the bonus pool era. 

Picks in rounds 11 to 20 don’t come with assigned slot values, though any money spent over $150,000 for those players will come out of the bonus pool. These dynamics are why you will often see college seniors with little leverage signing for significantly under-slot deals in the five-10 round range while other players—specifically high schoolers with more leverage—will sign for larger amounts after the 10th round.

Below you can see the complete slot values for the top 10 rounds: 

The post 2024 MLB Draft: Bonus Pools, Slot Values For Each Team appeared first on College Baseball, MLB Draft, Prospects - Baseball America.

Consider Corbin Carroll entering 2023. He was already being drafted in the early-middle rounds due to his status as a top prospect, but it was easy to see that if he were to succeed as a rookie, “the market” would get aggressive with him the following season. It turns out that Carroll was good enough to where he became an unquestioned first-rounder in 2024.

The goal is also to avoid early-round “landmines” that could be drafted significantly later by next year for one reason or another. Perhaps a player is getting older, or there’s a significant injury concern. It’s easy to forget how early Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander were going in 2023 drafts. Age can be overcome, but declining skill sets are worth monitoring.

Of course, baseball is a hard game, and typically the best players are drafted early year after year. You’ll notice a lot of familiar names on the list below, and it’s for good reason. Spoiler alert, Mookie Betts and Yordan Alvarez will probably be pretty good this year.

Note: These ADP projections are for 12-team roto leagues.

1. Ronald Acuña, OF, Braves

Spencer Strider was drafted first overall this spring in some high-stakes drafts, and that’s coming off Acuña’s historic campaign. His March knee aggravation is a slight concern that may have tipped the scales for some, but Acuña is a safe bet to be a top-three pick again next year. Like Acuña, his lineup protection is locked in for the long run. There’s no need to overthink this one. Acuña could even lose 20 steals and a handful of homers and still warrant 1.01 next season. His .337 average, aided by a dramatic drop in his strikeout rate, was an underrated part of his MVP season in 2023. Monitoring that area is arguably more important than his stolen-base rate this season.

2. Julio Rodríguez, OF, Mariners

One could go in a few directions with the second overall choice, making this a matter of personal preference. Perhaps those in five-outfielder leagues prefer Rodriguez and Tatis over Witt. Regardless, all three players represent power-speed combos that are building blocks of any fantasy squad.

3. Bobby Witt Jr., SS, Royals

Given his combination of elite sprint speed on a team with nothing to lose, it remains fascinating to think about Witt’s stolen-base ceiling. He already made history in his sophomore campaign from a HR-SB outlook. A 30-45 season feels like the floor this time around, with the upside for more.

Are we talking enough about 2023 Bobby Witt becoming one of just 5 players in the history of major league baseball to total 30 HR & 49 SB? pic.twitter.com/IjWCsjf7Qv

— Brendan Tuma (@toomuchtuma) January 9, 2024

4. Fernando Tatis Jr., OF, Padres

Here’s our first “tier jump” from 2023 drafts, as Tatis went as the No. 8 overall player in the final week of NFBC Main Event drafts.

It’s easy to compare him to this year’s Acuña—a former superstar who looked like he was shaking off the rust after a long layoff, only to bounce back in a monstrous way the following season.

Tatis’ max exit velocity was 113.4 mph in 2023. Within a few days of the 2024 season, he’s already hit two balls topping that, including a new career-high of 116.7 mph. Insert John Wick voice: “Yeah, I’m thinking I’m back!”

5. Shohei Ohtani, UTIL/SP, Dodgers

It’s hard to predict that the Dodgers’ lineup will be as historically great as the Braves’ last year. They have the talent to do it, but Atlanta remained healthy and was deep 1-9, while getting possible career years from multiple superstars.

That said, the Dodgers’ top three in their lineup are special, and Ohtani is uniquely positioned to pile up counting stats while hitting between Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman. Add in the return of starting pitching eligibility, and it’s hard to imagine baseball’s best player being drafted outside the top five. 

6. Mookie Betts, 2B/SS, Dodgers

The Dodgers’ lineup provides such a boost to Betts’ run production. It’s funny to project him as having dual middle infield eligibility without OF, but that seems to be the direction we’re headed in. The market will properly value that when it comes to a future Hall of Fame hitter with a 100th-percentile supporting cast.

7. Spencer Strider, SP, Braves

If Strider reaches his true ceiling this year, and if there are no other contenders for the title of “No. 1 SP in fantasy”, then we could once again see drafts where he’s taken first overall. This projection hedges a bit, with half a dozen hitters selected before him, but with the SP2 lasting until the middle of Round 2.

For those who need the reminder, Strider’s 2023 swinging strike rate was the highest recorded in MLB history.

8. Corbin Carroll, OF, D-Backs

Carroll’s power production fell just enough after last summer’s shoulder scare to keep fantasy managers on edge this spring. The stolen base and runs scored projections kept his ADP firmly in Round 1, but we’re now facing another season where the market is questioning his power potential. If Carroll once again looks like the hitter we saw in the first half of 2023, he could squeeze into the top five next spring.

9. Kyle Tucker, OF, Astros

Fantasy managers love their stability, and the next two names on this list are as “safe” of back-end, Round 1 commodities as there are. Tucker’s fantasy valuation will be interesting to track if and when he leaves Houston, but he’s under contract through 2025, which means at least one more year of hitting alongside Jose Altuve and Yordan Alvarez. Note Alex Bregman is currently in a walk year.

10. Freddie Freeman, 1B, Dodgers

Freeman is such an interesting first-round player to build around. He’s an aging hitter yet to show signs of slowing down. He has an elite supporting cast. He’s a first baseman without top-end power, but he’ll contribute more steals than others at his position, and it comes with an elite batting average.

Expect the average to be his calling card in 2025. With another year of league-wide stolen base madness, one can predict that batting average cements itself as the scarcest rotisserie category. Longtime roto players know it’s incredibly difficult to find good batting averages on the wire in-season.

11. Juan Soto, OF, Yankees

The next four players on our list are four-category monsters who become too good to pass up around the 1/2 turn. Not only are these hitters supremely reliable, but each has enough upside to sneak in a top-five overall finish in any given year.

Perhaps that’ll be 2024 for Soto, who is in a walk year and should be expected to maximize plate appearances. He’ll be eager to take advantage of the short porch at Yankee Stadium, and there’s no limit on what his counting stats could look like hitting in front of Judge.

12. Matt Olson, 1B, Braves

It’s tempting to fade Olson’s ridiculous combination of power and run production for speed or an ace, but drafters can pair him with either of those profiles around the 1/2 turn. It’s also worth noting that Atlanta doesn’t subscribe to modern-day “load management.” When healthy, their stars are in the lineup, and Olson has played 162 games in back-to-back seasons.

13. Yordan Alvarez, OF, Astros

Any manager beginning a 2025 draft with Olson/Alvarez will be set with runs, homers, RBIs and (mostly) batting average for a while.

Interestingly, Alvarez has never hit more than 37 homers in a season and has been held under 100 RBIs in the past two years. Still just 26 years old, his Statcast page presents enough upside for him to finally have that dominant campaign in any of the next few seasons.

14. Aaron Judge, OF, Yankees

Judge was mispriced for the entire offseason when comparing projections to ADP. Personally, I was willing to reach on him for the upside of his 2022 MVP campaign. Judge missed time last season, but when healthy, he hit similarly enough to ‘22 for me to remain aggressive with him.

This spring, he announced the turf toe injury would be an issue for the rest of his career. He then dealt with some mysterious abdominal issues that required testing and, at one point, put Opening Day in jeopardy. If he misses more time in 2024, the market will push him down further. Conversely, Soto remaining in New York for 2025 could help keep his ADP afloat.

15. Michael Harris, OF, Braves

Many will view Harris as nothing more than a 20/20 player who hits in a great lineup, though he’s always in the bottom half of the order with everyone healthy. However, he’s already more than that entering 2024 as someone who has hit above .290 in his first two seasons.

A strong batting average with power and speed is a rare player in our fake baseball game. Further skill improvement (for the homers and steals) and/or moving up in the lineup could mean Harris is drafted even closer to the wheel at this time next year.

16. Bryce Harper, 1B, Phillies

Harper was once a low/mid batting average hitter with elite OBP skills. He’s now a batting average anchor. Locked in at first base moving forward, he’s similar to Freeman in that he’ll also supply steals without Olson-esque power. The supporting cast should remain strong in 2025, cementing Harper’s status as a safe, top-20 bat with upside.

Bryce Harper has quietly turned himself into a batting average anchor for roto leagues and it’s like nobody even cares! https://t.co/Q7YHSxpueE

— Brendan Tuma (@toomuchtuma) January 9, 2024

17. George Kirby, SP, Mariners

Kirby absolutely popped in projection systems entering 2024, fueled in particular by microscopic WHIP expectations. This leads to many viewing him as a “safe” starting pitcher option, which he is.

However, there’s also some hidden upside for Kirby. A midseason arsenal change spiked his strikeout rate from 20.8% in the first half of 2023 to 25.2% afterward. Can the 26-year-old continue providing elite ratios while pitching in a favorable home park, but with more Ks? It seems very possible. Kirby’s swinging strike rate improvements back up the K% gains from last summer:

18. Austin Riley, 3B, Braves

It’s incredible how many great early-round bats there are to fill out the first two rounds of next year’s draft. Riley isn’t particularly noteworthy other than he’s a great hitter in a great lineup whose team plays him all the time. He has missed just eight games over the past three seasons, and the market will once again appreciate his consistency.

19. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 1B, Blue Jays

This projection is a bit of a hedge as to whether Guerrero rediscovers his 2021 form this season. The most likely outcome is that he splits the difference between ‘21 and ‘23, which is his 2022. Perhaps that’s a letdown to those who are chasing unanimous MVP production, but it still makes for a reliable, four-category stud. Of course, the upside for more remains present, as he just turned 25 this March.

20. CJ Abrams, SS, Nationals

Robert Orr of Baseball Prospectus already wrote this offseason’s definitive Abrams piece, referring to him as a slugger inside a speedster’s body. There are questions about Abrams’ real-life abilities as a hitter, just like with Witt and Harris before him, but if he holds his own, the homers and steals will come in bunches. Of course, there’s an upside for more with a player entering his age-23 season.

CJ Abrams is one of four players in the history of baseball to hit 18 HR and steal 47 bases at age 22 or younger. pic.twitter.com/AO61urH0xA

— Brendan Tuma (@toomuchtuma) March 23, 2024

21. Corey Seager, SS, Rangers

.330 batting averages don’t grow on trees. In 2023, Seager parlayed a BABIP bounceback with the new shift restrictions to deliver a historically great year. Health will always be a question with him, but Seager’s batting average contributions will be highly sought after next spring as long as he doesn’t miss significant time this season.

22. Zack Wheeler, SP, Phillies

There are still some hitters in play who could sneak into the end of Round 2, but durable (and good) pitching should once again be at a premium this season. Wheeler differs from the next two names in that he’s much older, and perhaps Gerrit Cole’s recent elbow injury will scare drafters away. Conversely, Wheeler is at least “built up”, and starting pitchers are balloons.

Strider is the favorite to win the National League Cy Young award, but Wheeler is an exciting pivot who should hold his value entering 2025.

23. Grayson Rodriguez, SP, Orioles

Grayson Rodriguez Primed For Strong 2024 Season After Revamping Arsenal

24. Bobby Miller, SP, Dodgers

Like Rodriguez, Miller improved throughout his rookie season and is already off to a dominating start in 2024. He combines hellacious stuff with an organization likely to maximize his skill set. Traditional scouting, advanced stats and Stuff+ models agree here. Miller has it all in what could be a breakout campaign.

Honorable Mentions

• Trea Turner, SS, Phillies
• Jose Ramírez, 3B, Guardians
• Rafael Devers, 3B, Red Sox
• Elly De La Cruz, SS, Reds
• Gunnar Henderson, SS, Orioles
• Tarik Skubal, SP, Tigers
• Corbin Burnes, SP, Orioles
• Oneil Cruz, SS, Pirates

Players Falling Out Of The First Two Rounds Of 2024

• Turner (11.6 ADP)
• Ramírez (16.1 ADP)
• Burnes (16.5 ADP)
• Luis Castillo (21.5 ADP)
• Pablo Lopez (25.9 ADP)

Final Thoughts

By looking ahead to 2025, we’re forecasting the story of 2024. In this case, the fantasy community primarily targets elite bats in the top-24 picks. A few select arms will be taken early, followed by flattening the SP5-15 range. Burnes, Castillo and Lopez could fall victim to this.

Injuries and down years will strike, but as of now, even more honorable mentions could’ve been listed.

Turner and Jo-Ram remain reliable stars who will be on the wrong side of 30, but the market typically likes to reach for upside in the second round, especially in early drafts with an overall component.

Devers falls victim to Vlad Jr. syndrome, where drafters get tired of waiting for another level.

If Elly De La Cruz hits his 90th percentile outcome this year, he will go in Round 1. Even if he falters somewhat, the market will likely remain interested at a “discount” in 2025. The homers and steals should be there, but it remains to be seen how streaky he’ll be and whether some lingering questions remain about his game. This projection has his ADP “stabilizing” somewhere in Rounds 3-4.

The post 2025 Fantasy Baseball: Predicting The First Two Rounds Of Drafts appeared first on College Baseball, MLB Draft, Prospects - Baseball America.

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There are 583 draftees on Opening Day active rosters (74.8% of the total number of players on rosters), so the average team will produce 19.4 big leaguers. Any club with more than that is above average. Anyone below that is below average.

It’s probably no surprise that the Los Angeles Dodgers lead the way with 29 active big leaguers on Opening Day. There are six homegrown Dodgers on its own roster (Will Smith, Bobby Miller, Michael Grove, James Outman, Gavin Stone and Gavin Lux), but 23 other Dodgers draftees have made other teams’ rosters, led by Corey Seager, Nathan Eovaldi and Alex Verdugo.

The San Diego Padres only have four players they drafted and signed on their own roster (Jackson Merrill, Luis Campusano, Graham Pauley and Tom Cosgrove), but there are 24 Padres draftees on other rosters, which leaves the club second overall.

The Nationals have the fewest, with 10 draftees on Opening Day rosters. Jake Irvin is the only National draftee on Washington’s Opening Day roster.

Here’s a look at how many players each team drafted and signed are on Opening Day rosters.

The post Which MLB Teams Drafted The Most Big Leaguers In 2024? appeared first on College Baseball, MLB Draft, Prospects - Baseball America.