Fantasy — College Baseball, MLB Draft, Prospects - Baseball America https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/competition/fantasy/ Baseball America is the authority on the MLB Draft, MLB prospects, college baseball, high school baseball, international free agents. Baseball America finds the future of the game of baseball. Mon, 15 Apr 2024 14:10:39 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.4.3 https://www.baseballamerica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/bba-favicon-32x32-1.bmp Fantasy — College Baseball, MLB Draft, Prospects - Baseball America https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/competition/fantasy/ 32 32 Fantasy Baseball: RoboScout Early 2024 Teaser https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/fantasy-baseball-roboscout-early-2024-teaser/ https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/fantasy-baseball-roboscout-early-2024-teaser/#respond Mon, 15 Apr 2024 14:09:13 +0000 https://www.baseballamerica.com/?p=1375553 Welcome to the RoboScout 2024 teaser. As Vlad Guerrero Jr. might say: the trailer before the movie. It’s only been a couple weeks in the…

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Welcome to the RoboScout 2024 teaser. As Vlad Guerrero Jr. might say: the trailer before the movie. It’s only been a couple weeks in the minor leagues—the average number of plate appearances in the lower minors is around 25 and the most innings thrown thus far is only 18 innings in Triple-A—so it would be malpractice to make any conclusions thus far. But, still, there have been some interesting storylines thus far when running the stats through RoboScout, and I’ve already taken some action in my Dynasty Leagues.

There is actionable data—but the error bars are quite wide. It’s always fun to see what the robot says this early…

Triple A

Triple-A started earlier than the other levels and so there is more data—and some of it is pertinent to redraft leagues too. Obviously, we’ve seen Jackson Holliday already called up. We also know about the stratospheric exploits of the other Norfolk Tides batters: Heston Kjerstad, Kyle Stowers, Coby Mayo, and Connor Norby. Sure enough, RoboScout views Jackson Holliday as the second-best hitter in Triple-A, Mayo fourth and Kjerstad fifth (with Norby and Stowers also in the Top 50).

The best hitter is James Wood of the Nationals who has continued his improved pitch recognition and hit tool we caught glimpses of in spring training into the early minor league season. With more walks than strikeouts, a 225 wRC+, two home runs and five stolen bases in only 53 plate appearances, RoboScout sees him as a .275/.365 25/20 hitter at peak. Expect him in the major leagues this year.

Joey Loperfido with his 10 home runs for the Astros affiliate finds himself in the top seven, lower than expected because of the 34% strikeout rate and the fact that he’s a little older than some of the higher pedigreed hitters.

An interesting name is 5-foot-6-inch utility infielder Caleb Durbin of the Yankees, who has struck out less than 5% of the time and has stolen eight bases already. If he can be a .270 hitter with double-digit home runs, 30+ stolen bases and multi-positional eligibility—as his first 60 plate appearances are pointing to—it goes without saying that he would be a huge fantasy asset. Ideally, he is a mini clone of 2023 Tyler Black.

On the pitching side of things, the top four, or “one short of a pentaverate,” is made up of the cabal of Christian Scott, Cade Povich, Paul Skenes and a rejuvenated Jack Leiter. I expect all of these pitchers to make their MLB debuts this year and be key contributors in redraft leagues. In leagues where he hasn’t been drafted, expect $500+ in NFBC FAAB bidding for Paul Skenes when he debuts in the current armpocalypse wasteland. He’s only throwing three innings per outing—which creates some uncertainty in how much he’ll be let loose in the majors in 2024—but the numbers are clearly elite right now. The others aren’t too shabby either, with RoboScout expecting ERAs under 4.00 when they make their debuts. (Note that public projections will be lower on Jack Leiter on account of his struggles prior to these latest 14 innings).

Double A

On the mound, the top names per RoboScout—and some of these may pitch in the majors this year—are Ian Seymour (TBR), Yu-Min Lin (ARI), Drew Thorpe (CHW) and Caden Dana (LAA). For deeper leagues, a couple interesting names appear in the top eight: Tyler Woessner (MIL) and Ryan Bergert (SDP), two pitchers in their age-24 season who have strikeout rates around 40% and walk rates below 3%. We don’t have 2024 statcast data yet for Double-A, but in 2023, Bergert popped on the internal model with a 114 Stuff+ with a four-pitch mix.

The top hitters in Double-A so far in this young season are Emmanuel Rodriguez (MIN) with four home runs, four stolen bases and a 290 wRC+, Roman Anthony (BOS) with two home runs, two stolen bases as a 20-year-old, Agustin Ramirez (NYY) the 22-year-old catcher with six home runs in only 33 plate appearances and Carson Williams (TBR). The first name in the top 10 who might not be widely rostered in your dynasty leagues and who is showing an improved hit tool to complement his power-speed blend of athleticism is Colby Thomas (OAK), who has kept his strikeout rate below 18% while hitting four home runs and stealing three bags.

High-A

The top five in High-A are Ethan Salas (SDP), Jefferson Rojas (CHC), Carter Jensen (KCR, who was an honorable mention on my breakout list for 2024), Cam Collier (CIN) and Anyelo Encarnacion (STL). The least-heralded name, second baseman Encarnacion, may just be a temporary fixture at the top of the rankings as he has only 16 plate appearances and is being heavily buoyed by his 38% walk rate leading to a 333 wRC+. Last year, he did not have a better-than-average barrel rate, exit velocity or even contact rate, so we’ll only be keeping an eye on him for now until we can check under the hood. If you’re in a deep league, though, it might be worth a speculative bid if you have nothing to lose—after all, RoboScout is smarter than me and my skepticism that this isn’t anything other than a product of small sample sizes.

From the pitching side of things, the pentaverate is Sean Sullivan (COL), Noah Schultz (CHW), Calvin Ziegler (NYM), Jaden Hamm (DET) and Moises Chace (BAL). Hamm was one of Geoff Ponte’s breakout names and has a 45% strikeout rate with only a 3% walk rate. Brett Wichrowski (MIL) on my breakout list finds himself in the top 10 too.

Low-A

There are three Low-A pitchers who have separated themselves from the pack after two starts: Santiago Suarez (TBR) with a 47% strikeout rate and no walks over 10 innings, Charlee Soto (MIN) and George Klassen (PHI) who—and no, the record isn’t skipping—was on Geoff’s pitching breakout list (along with Landen Maroudis (TOR) who is seventh in Low-A). If any of these names are available in your league, I do not expect that to be the case next week.

In the batter’s box, the top seven names in Low-A are Colt Emerson (SEA), Juan Flores (a catcher for the Angels), Cristofer Torin (ARI), Yophery Rodriguez (another popular breakout outfielder name for the Brewers), Adrian Santana (TBR), Arjun Nimmala (TOR) and newly-acquired Dodger Zyhir Hope (LAD). It’s early and there will be a lot of volatility here, but I would roster any of these names—including the teenage catcher—in any leagues that roster 300 prospects.

So there you have it—a quick hit on what RoboScout sees thus far in the extremely young minor league season. Happy bidding!

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Top 700 Fantasy Baseball Dynasty Rankings For 2024 https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/fantasy-baseball-dynasty-rankings-for-2024/ https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/fantasy-baseball-dynasty-rankings-for-2024/#respond Thu, 11 Apr 2024 12:07:31 +0000 https://www.baseballamerica.com/?p=1338715 Our Dynasty Top 700 receives an April update taking some recent injury and player movement into consideration.

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We here at Baseball America culminated a full offseason of dynasty baseball rankings with an expansion of our dynasty list to 700 players.

Now, with the season underway, we’ve unveiled our first rankings update of the year to take into account injuries, change of value and more.

It’s important to note that these rankings are not measuring 2023 value or projected 2024 value. Conversely, these rankings look at a three-to-five-year window and look to balance a variety of scoring types. 

Top MLB Prospects In 2024

Looking to go even deeper? Here are our Preseason Top 30s for every organization.

Within each writeup we make reference to players who might be worth moving up in your rankings if you’re in an OBP or points style scoring format. All 2023 rankings referenced within these rankings are based on Razzball’s player rater, a free tool that measures each player’s fantasy value per season. 

We’ve also ranked players by position and also outlined which players to target or fade, as well as potential sleepers. You can find all of our 2024 fantasy coverage here.

We will continue to update this list throughout the year. Our April 9th update has a variety of moves throughout the 700.

In closing, this was the handwork of the entire team at Baseball America but was curated by Geoff Pontes and Dylan White. Baseball America subscribers can access the full list and a downloadable file at the bottom of this post.


1. Ronald Acuna Jr., OF, Braves — The reigning NL MVP is fresh off hitting 41 home runs and stealing 73 bases in 2023. He’s still just 26 years old in 2024 and is at the forefront of an elite group of players with power-speed combinations at the top. 

2. Julio Rodriguez, OF, Mariners — At age 22, Rodriguez produced his first 30 home run and 30 stolen base season while scoring 102 runs and driving in 103 RBIs. He is a slam dunk top-three pick in all dynasty formats. 

3. Bobby Witt Jr., SS, Royals  After a strong rookie campaign in 2022, Witt took it to another level in 2023 hitting 30 home runs with 49 stolen bases and a .276 batting average. Witt takes a slight hit in OBP leagues due to his low walk rate, but is still a slam dunk top 5-10 pick in all formats. 

4. Fernando Tatis Jr., OF, Padres — Despite missing all of 2022 and the beginning of 2023 with a wrist injury and an 80-game PED suspension, Tatis returned to his classic form hitting 25 home runs and stealing 29 bases. His overall slashline numbers were down but his strikeout rate was the lowest of his career. 

5.  Corbin Carroll, OF, D-backs — The NL Rookie of the Year and Baseball America’s Rookie of the Year led the D-Backs to the World Series and is fresh off a rookie season where he hit .285/.362/.506 with 25 home runs and 54 stolen bases. Carroll is blessed with an outlier combination of plate skills, power and speed. 

6. Kyle Tucker, OF, Astros — Tucker is heading into his age-27 season in 2024. He came up one homer short of his first 30-homer, 30-steal season in 2023. Tucker has averaged 30 home runs a year over the last three seasons and has stolen 69 bases since 2021. 

7. Juan Soto, OF, Yankees — Soto’s elite on-base ability makes him a potential category winner in OBP leagues, but his combination of hitting ability and 30+ home run power places him among the elite. Soto lacks the stolen base numbers of the names ahead of him, but he’s capable of being the No. 1 player in dynasty heading into his peak seasons.

8. Yordan Alvarez, OF, Astros — Alvarez joins Soto as the two players with the best combination of hitting skills and power – and it can be argued he’s the better of the two. At age 26, Alvarez is coming off his third consecutive 30-homer season and provides a high batting average floor for a premium slugger. 

9. Shohei Ohtani, UTIL/SP, Dodgers — When healthy, Ohtani is arguably the top player in any daily roster format because he can be toggled between hitter and pitcher. Regardless of what pitcher Ohtani provides in 2024, Ohtani the hitter slugged 44 home runs, stole 20 bases and hit .304/.412/.654 in 135 games. 

10. Mookie Betts, 2B/OF, Dodgers — Had it not been for Acuña’s spectacular 2023, Betts may have run away with the NL MVP. Betts set a career high in home runs for a second consecutive season, while scoring 120+ runs for the fourth time in his career. Betts shows no signs of slowing down heading into his age-31 season and has gained positional eligibility at second base this season 

11. . Aaron Judge, OF, Yankees — Judge was held to just 106 games in 2023 after slugging 62 homers in 2022. Injuries have plagued Judge’s career, but his combination of elite power and on-base skills are enough to produce a top-five fantasy season in any given year. Judge’s health and age – he’ll be 32 for most of next season – are potential risks.

12. Matt Olson, 1B, Braves  Olson led MLB in homers (54) while topping the 50-homer mark for the first time in his career in 2023. Beyond his 80-grade power, Olson’s strikeout rate has improved each of the last two seasons and he hit a career-best .283 at 29 years old. Olson is squarely in his peak and the type of elite power hitter that ages well.

13. Gunnar Henderson, SS/3B, Orioles — Henderson hit 28 home runs and scored 100 runs en route to an AL Rookie of the Year award. Henderson has some improvements to make against lefthanded pitching, but heads into his age-22 season in 2024 with the ability to return top-two round fantasy value for the next decade. 

14. Wyatt Langford, OF, Rangers  — Langford is neck and neck with Caminero as the top dynasty prospect. He offers a strong combination of fantasy relevant tools with plus-plus power, excellent plate skills and a potential plush landing spot in the world champion Rangers lineup

15. Corey Seager, SS, Rangers — The Rangers superstar is fresh off a historic playoff run, but it’s his top-20 finish among positional players in 2023 that pushes him inside the top 15 overall. Seager hit .327/.390/.623 with 33 home runs in 2023 and returns as the catalyst of a loaded lineup. 

16. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 1B, Blue Jays — Guerrero’s power numbers have trended down in consecutive seasons since his elite 2021 campaign, lending credence to the boost minor league parks provided that season. Despite those concerns, Guerrero is still just 25 years old in 2024 and has a high power and batting average floor with an MVP-caliber ceiling. 

17. Austin Riley, 3B, Braves — The Braves lineup in 2023 was among the most deadly in MLB history and Riley was among four Braves hitters that ranked within the top-15 position players for fantasy. Riley hit .281/.345/.516 with 37 home runs in his age-26 season and has provided that level of production in three consecutive seasons.  

18Jose Ramirez, 3B, Guardians — Ramirez hit 24 home runs and stole 28 bases in his age-30 season, surpassing the 20 home run and 20 stolen base mark for the fifth time in his career. Ramirez’s numbers were down a little in 2023 from his previous two seasons, but he still returned top-25 positional value and should continue to do so in the coming seasons. 

19. Junior Caminero, 3B, Rays — Caminero hit his way to the majors at 20 years old and is the top prospect in our rankings. He’ll still be 20 for most of 2024 and has the potential to be among the best combinations of elite power and batting average.

20. Bryce Harper, 1B, Phillies — A long-time superstar in all formats, Harper always gets a slight bump in OBP style. After missing the beginning of 2023 recovering from elbow surgery, Harper returned and hit .293/.401/.499 with 21 home runs and 11 steals over 126 games. With the move to first base, Harper at 31 years old has plenty of runway to remain a top fantasy producer for years to come. 

21. Freddie Freeman, 1B, Dodgers — Freeman is an older but still an elite producer in fantasy baseball at age 34. He hit .331/.410/.567 with 29 home runs and over 100 runs and 100 RBIs for the second consecutive season. Freeman still has plenty of years left of upper-echelon production with elite plate skills and 25+ home run power.  

22. Michael Harris II, OF, Braves — Harris can get lost in the fold because there are so many standouts in the Braves lineup. In his age-22 season, Harris nearly replicated his rookie performance despite producing a .725 OPS in this first half. Harris takes a hit in OBP leagues but his combination of power, speed and batting average provide a high floor with projection for more. 

23. Rafael Devers, 3B, Red Sox — One of the premier power hitters in the game, Devers reached the 30 home run plateau for the third time at age 26. Devers provides a high batting average and power floor with improving on-base skills. He’s the last of the top tier of third baseman still available. 

24. Pete Alonso, 1B, Mets — Despite hitting .217 in 2023, Alonso hit 46 home runs and drove in 118 RBIs finishing inside the top-25 of positional players. One of the premier power hitters in the game heading into his age-29 season in 2024, Alonso should have another five plus seasons of elite power production. 

25. Ozzie Albies, 2B, Braves — In his age-26 season Albies hit new highs in home runs and RBIs while hitting .280/.336/.513. He takes a slight hit in OBP, but Albies finished in the top three at the second base position and has arguably the best long-term outlook among elite options at the position.

26. Jackson Chourio, OF, Brewers — The Brewers committed $82 million over the next eight years to lock Chourio up, giving a good indication of their plans for the 19-year-old outfielder. Chourio has an explosive combination of power and speed with good underlying skills. He could rank in the top 10 a year from now. 

27. Jackson Holliday, SS, Orioles — Holliday burst onto the scene in 2023 with a loud first full professional season, hitting .323/.442/.499 with 12 home runs and 24 stolen bases. Holliday played at all four full-season levels and finished the season with 18 games at Triple-A. Holliday could be up early in 2024. His elite plate skills and on-base ability make him valuable regardless of scoring style or format. 

28. Bo Bichette, SS, Blue Jays — Bichette’s stolen bases dropped for the second consecutive season as he dealt with injury. Whether the 20-20 seasons for Bichette are gone is a matter of debate. Still, he’s a career .299 hitter with 20+ home run upside entering his age 26 season. 

29. Elly De La Cruz, SS, Reds — De La Cruz is a good measure of your risk tolerance. Few players can match his explosive skills, especially his easy plus-plus power and speed. But De La Cruz needs to cut his strikeout rate and improve his plate discipline to reach his first-round potential. He’s a highly volatile investment. 

30. Evan Carter, OF, Rangers  — The Rangers showed supreme confidence in Carter throughout their championship run and for good reason. Carter has an extremely refined set of plate skills with 20+ stolen base speed and more power to come. Carter is 21 years old and could be a difference maker in OBP and points formats for the next decade. 

31. Adley Rutschman, C, Orioles — The top catcher in dynasty baseball, the switch-hitting Rutschman hit .277/.374/.435 with 20 home runs in his first full major league season. Rutschman enters 2024 at 26 years old heading into his prime years with a rapidly improving Orioles lineup and core. Rutschman is the only catcher in consideration among the top 50 dynasty players. 

32. Corbin Burnes, RHP, Orioles — 2023 was a down year for Burnes. He ranked 20th among pitchers as his strikeout rate dropped, walk rate rose and his ERA jumped nearly half a run. Despite the down season, Burnes still possesses an elite pitch in his cut fastball with a deep arsenal of average or better secondaries. Burnes could bounce back in 2024 at age 29 with plenty of good years remaining. The move to the Orioles potentially boosts Burnes win total in standard 5×5.

33. Mike Trout, OF, Angels — Once the universal top pick in dynasty drafts for the better part of a decade, Trout is now 32 years old and hasn’t played more than 140 games in a season since 2016. Trout doesn’t run any longer but his power and hitting ability should allow him to be productive into his 30s if his health permits.

34. Triston Casas, 1B, Red Sox — Despite dark days at Fenway in 2023, Casas was a true bright spot hitting .263/.367/.490 with 24 home runs as a rookie. Casas will be 24 for all of 2024 and has the skills to develop into one of the top batting average and power hitters in fantasy. 

35. Grayson Rodriguez, RHP, Orioles — While his debut wasn’t what Orioles fans hoped, Gray-Rod returned in July with a vengeance after a reclamation at Triple-A and pitched to a 2.58 ERA with a 24% strikeout rate in 13 starts.

36. George Kirby, RHP, Mariners — The 25-year-old Kirby may have the best command of any pitcher in baseball. He showed the ability to handle a heavy workload, throwing more than 190 innings in 2023. Kirby has an excellent fastball and his slider and curveball took big steps forward last season. Kirby ranked 11th overall among starters for fantasy in 2023. 

37. Tarik Skubal, LHP, Tigers — When Skubal returned from flexor tendon surgery in July, he gained nearly two mph on his fastball and subsequently finished the season with a 0.90 WHIP, 2.80 ERA and was arguably one of the best pitchers in the second half of 2023. Heading into his age-27 season and calling the most home run-suppressing stadium in Comerica Park home, projection systems generally expect him to be a top-five pitcher in 2024 and for the next three years.

38.  Trea Turner, SS, Phillies — After a down first half that saw Turner hit .247/.299/.389 over the first 88 games of the season, Turner returned to form in the second half hitting .292/.348/.554. Turner seemed to settle into his new surroundings and finished with his third consecutive 20 home run and 20 stolen base season. 

39. Randy Arozarena, OF, Rays — After starring in the World Baseball Classic for Mexico, Arozarena set career highs in 2023 in home runs, runs and walk rate on his way to finishing as the 48th overall player in fantasy. Arozarena will be 29 entering 2024 and the late bloomer has shown no signs of slowing down as he enters his 30s. 

40. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, RHP, Dodgers — Yamamoto is coming to MLB after seven seasons with the Orix Buffaloes. At 25 years old, Yamamoto is a two-time NPB MVP and five-time All-Star. His fastball sits in the mid 90s and he mixes in a splitter, curveball and cutter, showing command for his entire arsenal.

41. Kevin Gausman, RHP, Blue Jays — Gausman threw 175+ innings with an ERA under 3.40 and notched over 200 strikeouts for the third consecutive year. He turns 33 years old before the 2024 season, but Gausman should still be counted on for top-10 starting pitcher production for 2024 and sub-4.00 ERAs through 2026.

42. Pablo Lopez, RHP, Twins — Lopez posted a career-high 194 innings and 4.5 fWAR at age 27 after the Twins acquired him from the Marlins for Luis Arraez. All of Lopez’s ERA estimators (xERA, FIP, xFIP, SIERA) were even lower than his 3.66 ERA. As long as he’s healthy, Lopez should have a low ERA, low WHIP and 9+ K/9 for the next three years. A model of consistency, he has never had an ERA, xFIP, FIP, SIERA, or xERA above 4.00 in the 2020s. 

43. Luis Castillo, RHP, Mariners — The Mariners ace put together another standout season finishing as the sixth-best pitcher in fantasy in 2023. Castillo has transformed from a groundball-heavy fireballer to one of the best strikeout pitchers in the game. At age 31, Castillo still has several more seasons of top-10 fantasy starter production remaining. 

44. CJ Abrams, SS, Padres — Abrams ranked as the No. 8 shortstop in fantasy on the strength of 18 homers and 47 steals, even despite posting a 90 wRC+ in 2023. He’s still young and has many more years to grow as a hitter while already providing elite stolen base numbers and power. 

45. Francisco Lindor, SS, Mets — At age 29, Lindor had his first 30 home run and 30 stolen base season in 2023. It’d be foolish to expect Lindor to continue to put up 30-30 seasons as he ages, but he hasn’t stopped running yet. Lindor is on the wrong side of 30 years old but is still one of the best hitters in the game. 

46. Oneil Cruz, SS, Pirates — Few players push fantasy managers’ imaginations into hyperdrive the way Oneil Cruz does. His combination of top of the scale power, plate skills and speed provide glimpses of superstar upside. An ankle injury that required surgery robbed managers of his 2023 season, but he’s fully recovered and ready for 2024. Cruz is a risk/reward pick in dynasty that could pay dividends.

47.  Tyler Glasnow, RHP, Dodgers — A career 3.89 ERA and 1.21 WHIP pitcher, Glasnow will call Dodger Stadium home for the next four years after the Dodgers acquired him from the Rays and signed him to a new four-year, $110 million extension. He missed all of 2022 due to Tommy John surgery and his 2023 debut was delayed two months while tending to a preseason oblique injury. Still, Glasnow managed to throw the most innings of his career in 2023. Never having an xFIP or FIP over 4.00 since 2017, Glasnow’s primary issue has been staying on the field. One word of caution: Glasnow has consistently given up barrels and hard hits at a higher rate than expected and Dodger Stadium is second only to Cincinnati’s Great American Ball Park for home run propensity. Assuming that suppressing hard contact isn’t something a pitcher significantly controls, expect a top-10 starting pitcher for the next three years.

48. Spencer Strider, RHP, Braves — Pitchers are risky choices in dynasty, and Strider’s managers are feeling that pain, as his future is up in the air with an elbow injury.

49. Bobby Miller, RHP, Dodgers — Miller’s excellent rookie season was lost in the haze of a historic rookie class. The fireballing righthander showcased a strong combination of stuff and pitchability in his debut. Over 22 starts, Miller walked just 6.3% of batters faced while driving groundballs at a rate of 47.7% and an 11.3% swinging strike rate. Miller shows a balance of power stuff, strike-throwing and flyball suppression that should help him develop into a frontline starter.

50. Manny Machado, 3B, Padres — Machado has averaged more than 600 plate appearances and 30 homers over the last three seasons, but his .258 average and 114 wRC+ in 2023 were his lowest marks since 2019. He underwent right elbow surgery after the season, which may explain the drop in production. Machado still offers offensive production 25% above league average — and should remain above-average for at least five more years — but he may not be a top-10 third baseman after 2024.

51. Marcus Semien, 2B, Rangers –Semien leads all second basemen in home runs, runs and RBIs over the last three seasons. He is a pillar of durability, making 700 or more plate appearances in each of his last five full seasons. At age 33, Semien still has five years left on his contract and finds himself at the top of a strong lineup with a talented core. He hit .276/.348/.478 scoring 122 runs with 100 RBI in 2023. Semien is one of the top names at the position, but he could start to regress as he ages into his mid 30s. 

52. Zac Gallen, RHP, D-backs — The D-backs ace built on his breakout 2022, ranking as the fourth-best pitcher in fantasy baseball in 2023. Gallen has shown the ability to go 200+ innings and has the swing and miss stuff and command to rank among the top starters in the game for years to come. 

53. Jose Altuve, 2B, Astros –Altuve fractured his thumb in the World Baseball Classic and missed more than a month to begin the 2023 season. He returned in mid May and played 32 games before an oblique injury forced Altuve back onto the IL for most of July. In the 58 games following his return on July 26, we saw vintage Altuve, as he hit .335/.404/.544 with 11 home runs. The high stolen base totals are gone, but Altuve provides an extremely high batting average floor with an opportunity to score 90+ runs with 70+ RBIs over the next few seasons even as he ages into his mid 30s. 

54. Zack Wheeler, RHP, Phillies –Now 33, Wheeler has made good on his once highly-rated prospect status and developed into one of the more consistent top-of-the-rotation starters in the game. Wheeler has averaged 30 starts and 186 innings per year over the last three seasons, posting a 3.08 ERA, 3.14 xFIP with 10.0 K/9 and 1.92 BB/9. Wheeler still has a few more high-level seasons remaining, health permitting.

55. Riley Greene, OF, Tigers — There were high hopes for the No. 5 pick in the 2019 draft entering his first full season in 2023. Disappointingly, a broken fibula and later Tommy John surgery in his non-throwing arm led to fewer plate appearances than he had in 2022. Still, over two partial MLB seasons, Greene has a 108 wRC+ with few holes in his game. As he heads into his age-23 season, expect solid, if not spectacular, numbers across five categories in 2024 as he hits at the top of an improved Tigers lineup.

56. Spencer Torkelson, 1B, Tigers –In his first full season with the Tigers, the former Arizona State star hit 31 home runs with 16 of them coming in the final two months. Even with Riley Greene missing a large part of the season, Torkelson managed 94 RBIs. Heading into his age-24 season, you can count on 30 home run seasons for a while in a Detroit lineup that should be getting better.

57. Jordan Walker, OF, Cardinals — Walker hit .276/.342/.445 with 16 home runs and seven stolen bases over 117 games as a rookie despite taking a month-long detour in Triple-A. Walker has a high batting average floor, improving approach and plus-plus power he’s still learning to get to consistently in games. Walker could develop into one of the top hitters in fantasy if he takes another step forward in the coming years. 

58. Gleyber Torres, 2B, Yankees — After mediocre results in 2020 and 2021, Torres’ resurgence in 2022 gathered further steam as he took another step forward in his age-26 season in 2023. He produced a career-low strikeout rate (14.6%) while his walk rate (10%) climbed to double digits for the first time over a full season. With improved contact and on-base ability, Torres now has value for across a variety of formats, and at age 27 he’s entering his prime in a Yankees lineup that now boasts Juan Soto.

59. Royce Lewis, 3B, Twins — A string of injuries robbed Lewis of much of the last three seasons, but 2023 gave us a glimpse of what he can be when in the field. Lewis hit .309/.372/.548 with 15 home runs over 58 games. Lewis is 24 years old entering 2024 and is poised for a breakout with a full healthy season.

60. Francisco Alvarez, C, Mets — Prior to the 2023 season, we projected Alvarez to have a wRC+ at peak of around 130. After putting together a 97 wRC+ in his 423 plate appearance major league debut at age 21, that prime projection remains the same. If anything, his improved defense and ability to handle a rotation makes him an even more desirable target.

61. Jazz Chisholm Jr., OF, Marlins — In his first full season as an outfielder, the toolsy Bahamian performed well defensively but unfortunately had a hard time staying on the field, dealing with turf toe, an oblique injury, knee and hamstring issues. When he’s on the field, he is an electrifying blend of power and speed. Over his major league career, he’s averaged 25+ home runs and 30 stolen bases per 600 plate appearances. The 26-year-old’s aggressive approach though leads to below-average batting average and OBP.

62. Freddy Peralta, RHP, Brewers — As good as Tarik Skubal was in the second half, Peralta’s strikeout-to-walk percentage (30.6% to 2.8%) was even better and he won just as many games (seven). Peralta seemingly put his 2022 shoulder woes behind him and gained two mph on his fastball, subsequently throwing a career-high 165 innings with a 1.12 WHIP and 3.86 ERA. Heading into his age-28 season, Peralta is easily a top-15 arm if he stays healthy. 

63. Will Smith, C, Dodgers — Although Smith hit fewer than 20 homers and his wRC+ dropped 10 points from the previous two years, there is a compelling rationale that he deserves a mulligan, and the downturn can be acutely attributed to nagging injuries. He is still only 28 years old and hits in the middle of a dangerous Dodger lineup, which will probably be even more dangerous in 2024 and beyond.

64. Luis Robert Jr., OF, White Sox — Robert provided the elite fantasy season in 2023 that many had anticipated would surface as he hit .264/.315/.542 with 38 home runs and 20 stolen bases. There’s still a highwire act Robert needs to walk with his low walk rate and high strikeout rate, but his combination of power and speed is extremely valuable.

65. Cody Bellinger, 1B/OF, Cubs — After two down seasons with the Dodgers saw Bellinger drop from one of the top picks in dynasty startups to a later round afterthought, he signed a one-year challenge deal with the Cubs prior to 2023. He responded by hitting .307/.356/.525 with 26 home runs and 20 stolen bases. Despite the loud rebound season for Bellinger, there’s healthy skepticism around him heading into 2024 and beyond. Under the hood, Bellinger’s 87.9 mph average exit velocity is nearly a 2 mph drop from his career average. Bellinger’s barrel and hard-hit rates in 2023 were the lowest of his career. There were skill improvements from a bat-to-ball perspective that give some hope for only slight regression. He returns to the Cubs and should hit in the middle of the lineup.

66. Anthony Volpe, SS, Yankees — It’s a testament to the depth at the position that after being the first Yankees rookie to win a Gold Glove and have a 20/20 season, Volpe doesn’t crack the top 10 at the position for dynasty. Despite the excellent glove, baserunning value and counting stats, the jury is still out on the hit tool—especially against non-fastballs—but he should be a contributor in the Bronx for a long time.

67. Vinnie Pasquantino, 1B, Royals — After a 2022 season during which he had a scorching 138 wRC+ over just shy of 300 plate appearances, expectations were high for 2023. Unfortunately, a labrum injury—and later, season-ending surgery on the shoulder—felled the Royals’ first baseman. Expected to be ready for 2024, his plus hit tool, great approach and above-average game power should lead to a .270 to .290 batting average with double-digit walks and about 25 home run power. He will be 26 years old for the entire 2024 season and just entering his prime.

68. Jesus Luzardo, LHP, Marlins — In his first season exceeding 18 starts, Luzardo had 205 strikeouts, a 3.58 ERA and a solid 1.21 WHIP. He averaged roughly one mph more in velocity on his four-seamer, slider and changeup compared to 2022. The 25-year-old lefty sustained the velocity gains throughout the entire season, and his average fastball velocity dipped to 96 mph just once during a start in September. Luzardo showed he has the stamina to take on the rigors of a full season. Roster him with confidence.

69. Jasson Dominguez, OF, Yankees — He’ll miss a large bulk of 2024 recovering from Tommy John surgery, but after hitting four home runs in his first eight major league gamesand adding a stolen base to bootYankee fans and his dynasty owners will be dreaming of what he can do hitting in a lineup beside Judge and Soto. Dominguez isn’t quite projected to be a 20/20 bat yet, but considering he will only be 21 years old, it won’t be long before he’s contributing at that rate yearlyand for a long time.

70. Logan Gilbert, RHP, Mariners — Gilbert’s xFIP has improved each of the last three seasons, pointing to a strong underlying mix of skills. He showed the best command of his career in 2023, walking just 4.7% of batters he faced. He finished 2023 with the highest groundball rate of his career as well as a career high in called + looking strikes rate (27.1%). Gilbert sits 95-96 mph on his fastball with a plus slider and two additional secondaries that finished with positive run values in 2023.

71. Xander Bogaerts, SS, Padres — Bogaerts is a remarkably consistent workhorse. In the last 10 years not including the shortened 2020 season, Bogaerts’ lowest plate appearance total was 580. He also took advantage of the new baserunning rules to steal a career-high 19 bases in 2023. Bogaerts is on the other side of 30 years old now and his decline phase is likely beginning, but he should age reasonably gracefully, and over the last two years has improved his shortstop defense to be in the upper half of the league. He’s a solid set-it-and-forget-it piece of your roster.

72. Josh Naylor, 1B, Guardians — The burly Canadian cemented himself as an everyday player in 2022 and took a step forward in 2023, hitting .308/.354/.489. Naylor has a balance of plus bat-to-ball skills and power. He is limited by his hyper-aggressive approach, limiting his value in OBP formats. Naylor saw a climb in both his line-drive and fly-ball rates in 2023, hinting toward potential for further power growth.

73. Aaron Nola, RHP, Phillies –Nola lacks the power of other frontline starters and instead rides the quality of his fastball and curveball to great success. But his fastball lost effectiveness in 2023 and his numbers suffered. Suppressing hard contact is essential to Nola’s success. Similarly to his 2021 season, Nola was penalized for hard contact allowed in 2023. Nola’s barrel rates and hard-hit rates jumped in 2023, leading to a jump in home runs allowed. It’s tough to know if these are signs of Nola regressing or simply an unlucky season.

74. William Contreras, C, Brewers — Getting 600 plate appearances from the catcher position by also getting 150 plate appearances as the team’s designated hitter translates to huge fantasy value. Contreras has no real holes in his game and is only 26 years old. He has Top 100 dynasty talent.

75. Alex Bregman, 3B, Astros — Bregman has produced nearly identical hitting lines over the last two seasons, averaging 24 homers, a .260 average, .360 OBP and around 200 runs and RBIs. With his elite pitch recognition, he rarely chases and nearly always has a competitive at bat — skills that typically prolong a hitter’s career. Bregman is a consistent contributor who is even better in OBP leagues and is only now entering his age-30 season.

76. Christian Yelich, OF, Brewers — Yelich’s 2023 campaign wasn’t on par with his MVP-level production in 2018 and 2019, but the Brewers left fielder turned in his best season since 2020 with a line of .278/.370/.447 and 19 homers to go along with 28 steals. Don’t interpret this as the beginning of positive regression back to his lofty heights of the pre-COVID era; this past season’s production was most likely driven by the rule changes. Yelich’s batting average on pulled groundballs improved by 0.070and not due to a change in his true talent. In 2023, his groundball rate was yet again above 50%, his barrel rate was still in the single digits, and his maximum exit velocity actually dropped over three mph from 2022. As such, expect a similar 2024: above average rate statseven better in OBP leagueswith 20/20 power/speed production.

77. Dylan Crews, OF, Nationals — Crews has been a well-known name for some time following a historic college career. His combination of elite on-base skills, power and feel to hit provides one of the safest profiles in the class with potential for superstar upside.

78. Adolis Garcia, OF, Rangers — Garcia burst onto the scene in 2021 hitting 31 homers and stealing 16 bases in his age-28 season. Skeptics wondered whether his production was sustainable on account of his 31% strikeout rate and sub-.300 OBP. Proving the skeptics wrong, Garcia has improved his wRC+, OBP, barrel rate, wOBA, xwOBA, SLG, xSLG, and WAR each of the next two seasons, culminating in a 39-home run season in 2023. Garcia was also a huge postseason contributor for the Rangers’ World Series championship. Turning 31 years old just before 2024 begins, the electrifying Cuban should be a 30- home run, 15-steal contributor for at least a few more yearsbut might moved to DH sooner rather than later to accommodate the arrival of Wyatt Langford.

79. Seiya Suzuki, OF, Cubs — Fantasy tends to underrate players like Suzuki and Riley Greene (above) because they don’t excel in any one area despite providing a high floor across all roto categories. But being average in all statistical columns is not commonplace. Suzuki built off of his 2022 season in nearly every metric across the board, and actually has a better projection than Greene in 2024, though is six years older. Suzuki has shown some difficulty in holding up to the rigors of playing a full season and his fringy defense may lead to playing time concerns down the road, but he’s a solid fantasy piece.

80. Eury Perez, RHP, Marlins — Perez underwent Tommy John surgery and will miss all of 2024 and a good chunk of 2025. He’s so young that he should return and regain his top 50 value.

81. Blake Snell, LHP, Giants — Snell won his second Cy Young award last year with a 2.25 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 234 strikeouts over 180 innings. That marked his first time reaching 175 strikeouts and 130 innings since 2018 when he won his previous Cy Young award with the Rays.Snell signed with the Giants and will reap the rewards of a great home ballpark.

82. Nolan Jones, OF, Rockies — It’s not really a breakout when it’s your debut, but the 25-year-old enjoyed an unexpected 20/20 season for the Rockies. Jones’ patient approach in the minors was always expected to lead to a high OBP in the majors and it carried over to the majors. He had one of the 30 lowest swing rates among players with at least 400 plate appearances in 2023. But Jones’ .401 BABIP also led to a .297 batting average. Expect something in the .260 area in 2024, but considering his barrel rate was higher than Corey Seager and Bryce Harper, 25/20 production in a full season shouldn’t be out of the question.

83. Logan Webb, RHP, Giants — Webb enters his age-27 season as the preeminent groundball pitcher in baseball. He surpassed the 200-inning threshold in 2023 and finished tied with Gerrit Cole for the most quality starts in MLB. Webb sees a value jump in points and quality start formats, as his innings totals and ability to go six or more innings each start is of the utmost value.

84. Kyle Schwarber, OF, Phillies –For three straight years, the stocky outfielder has averaged 600 plate appearances and 40 home runs. One of the most consistent home run bats in the game, Schwarber is a batting average sinkcloser to average in OBPand offers no base running value. Despite this, because of the counting stats he gives your team, he has been the No. 17 and No. 8 most valuable outfielder the last two years (in 15-team batting average league configurations).

85. Framber Valdez, LHP, Astros — Valdez has cemented himself as Houston’s most reliable starter over the last two seasons. He consistently goes deep into games, drives groundballs and generates strikeouts at an above-average rate. Valdez enters his age-30 season with the expectation of providing fantasy No. 2 style numbers for the next few seasons.

86. Cole Ragans, LHP, Royals — To say that Ragans was a revelation for the Royals after they acquired him from the Rangers is an understatement. He racked up 89 strikeouts over 71.2 innings with a 2.64 ERA supported by a 3.28 xFIP in a dozen starts for the Royals after the all-star break. Ragans went six or more innings in nine of those 12 starts, mixing three breaking ball shapes, a changeup and a fastball that sits 94-97 mph. All of Ragans pitches graded as average to plus per run values and they missed bats, generating a 15% swinging strike rate as a starter. The biggest question is how many innings will Ragans pitch in 2024 and can he maintain health?

87. Ketel Marte, 2B, D-Backs — Marte returned to prime form in 2023, recapturing the 2019 production that vaulted him near to the top of second base rankings entering 2020. He struggled with health and production from 2020-2022, but finished third among second basemen in wRC+ (127) in 2023. Marte finished fifth among second basemen for overall fantasy value per the Razzball player rater, and just outside the top 50 in overall value. Marte enters his age-30 season with a talented lineup around him and a prime spot hitting behind Corbin Carroll. 

88. Gerrit Cole, SP, Yankees — Fresh off his first Cy Young Award, Cole looked like an elite pitcher at age 33. Then disaster struck in Mid-March as Cole went down with an elbow injury and looks likely to spend at least the first two months on the IL. Cole is currently an avoid in startup drafts, as more information becomes available we’ll adjust the rank further.

89. Bryan Reynolds, OF, Pirates — Like Riley Greene and Seiya Suzuki, Reynolds is another solid-average performer at outfield across all categories. He’s now two years removed from his six-WAR season in 2021. Nearly 30 years old, Reynolds’ ceiling and upside is likely capped, but his production profile is solid and should decline relatively gracefully over the next few years, especially if he stays in the middle of an improving Pirates lineup.

90. Matt McLain, 2B, Reds — McLain’s prospect status tumbled heading into 2023, but a scorching hot 40 games to open the season with Triple-A Louisville led to a mid-May callup. McLain hit .290/.357/.507 with 16 home runs over 89 games. His 128 wRC+ ranked fifth among all rookies and second basemen with a minimum of 400 plate appearances. McLain qualifies as both a second baseman and shortstop entering 2023, giving him a slight value bump for his flexibility.

91. Andres Gimenez, 2B, Guardians — After a 2022 season that saw Gimenez finish second in wRC+ (142) for the second base position, he slid back to a league-average performer in 2023. While Gimenez’s home runs, stolen bases, runs and RBIs were stable, his batting average dropped by 46 points. Gimenez’s contact-first profile leaves him susceptible to large swings in production based on BABIP luck. Gimenez will be 25 years old for almost all of 2024 and better luck on balls in play could be coming.

92. Hunter Greene, RHP, Reds — Greene was a trendy breakout pick heading into 2023, but he struggled to keep hitters off his fastball and the pitch continues to return negative run value. Despite triple-digit fastball velocity, Greene’s upper-80s slider remains his bread and butter. His lack of a third pitch complicates matters, as opposing hitters slugged .518 his fastball, making Greene far too predictable.

93. Coby Mayo, 3B, Orioles — In his age-21 season, Coby Mayo had a slash line in Double-A of .307/.424/.603 with 17 home runs over 347 plate appearances. Paired with his 90th percentile exit velocity of 107 mph, better-than-league-average contact rate and chase rate, RoboScout had him as the No.1 prospect at the level. After his promotion to Triple-A Norfolk, the 6-foot-5 third baseman hit another 12 home runs and continued to show a keen eye and ability to drive the ball. After his fantastic 2023 in the upper levels, Mayo looks like he could hit .260 with a .340 OBP and 25 homers. He should be plugged into the middle of Baltimore’s formidable batting order for years to come, most likely starting in 2024.

94. Paul Skenes, RHP, Pirates –The No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 draft was an easy choice for the top spot in the Pirates’ system and has one of the highest ceilings of any pitching prospect in the sport. There might be a few tweaks required, but he has the stuff and pedigree to lead Pittsburgh’s next generation.

95. Nico Hoerner, 2B, Cubs — Hoerner moved to second base in 2023 following the addition of Dansby Swanson last offseason, but he played enough games at shortstop (20) to retain eligibility for another season. Hoerner lacks impact, but his combination of positive contributions in batting average, stolen bases and counting stats float his fantasy profile. He is 26 entering 2024 and should have three to four more years of premium stolen base contributions.

96. Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, Cardinals — For the first time since 2017 (not including the COVID year), Goldy hit fewer than 30 home runs. It was also his lowest wRC+ since 2019. Whether this is the beginning of his decline or not, he should still be an above-average hitter for at least four more years, but he is likely no longer a top-100 dynasty asset.

97. Max Fried, LHP, Braves — Fried enters a contract year in 2024 looking to stay healthy after he was limited to just 14 starts last season. The lefthander has produced excellent numbers when on the mound but has yet to exceed 185 innings in a season as a professional. Despite holding his velocity consistently over the last three seasons, Fried’s fastball performance took a hit in 2023. He’s a solid performer with injury risk and some cracks beginning to show.

98. Colt Keith, 3B, Tigers — Keith showed signs of elite hitting ability in the minors in 2022, but injuries limited his time on the field. Assigned to Double-A Erie out of spring training in 2023, Keith hit .325/.391/.585 across 59 games, earning a promotion to Triple-A. He then hit .289/.369/.521 over 67 games at the highest level of the minors to finish his season. Keith enters 2024 at 22 years old with exit velocity data above the major league average with above-average bat-to-ball skills and approach. He also appears in line to contribute in the majors quite soon after inking a six-year extension with the Tigers in late January.

99. Ha-Seong Kim, 2B/3B/SS, Padres — Kim enjoyed his best year to date in his third season with the Padres, hitting 17 home runs with 38 stolen bases while seeing time at second base, shortstop and third base. He showed balanced plate skills, with increased on-base skills allowing him to get the most out of his skills at the plate. Kim doesn’t hit the ball particularly hard but he shows the ability to elevate enough to run into 13-18 home runs a season. 

100. Yandy Diaz, 1B, Rays — Having a career wRC+ of 131 means his bat will be in the lineup as much as possible. Always a batting average and OBP asset, Diaz also hit 22 home runs in 2023. As long as he can stay healthy, he should be a top-10 first baseman for the next two years.

101. Zach Eflin, RHP, Rays The Rays made tangible changes to Eflin’s pitch mix in his first season in the AL East. The righthander threw his cutter and curve more while using his fastball less—to both-handed batters—and the result was a career high in innings pitched and a career-best ERA, FIP and xFIP. Projections see some regression, but the 29-year-old should still have a low-to-mid-3s ERA with a better-than-average WHIP.

102. Josh Jung, 3B, Rangers — After multiple injury-riddled seasons, Jung finally stayed healthy in 2023 and delivered the rookie campaign many had anticipated. Jung hit .266/.315/.467 with 23 home runs and a combined 145 RBIs and runs. Jung’s once-refined approach and above-average contact skills have given way to a power-first mentality. It’s worked as Jung boasts good underlying power data, including a 11.9% barrel rate, tying him with Julio Rodriguez and Paul Goldschmidt.

103. Zack Gelof, 2B, Athletics — Gelof was a revelation for those that rostered the A’s infielder in 2023. He hit .267/.337/.504 with 14 home runs and 14 stolen bases over 69 games. Gelof frequently hits the ball hard, often at good angles. His 11.1% barrel rate was tied for 10th among rookies and his .443 xSLUG ranked sixth. Gelof’s aggressive approach and below-average contact skills are red flags. The good news is those are both areas that typically improve with age and experience. 

104. Joe Ryan, RHP, Twins — There was a lot of optimism Ryan would take a large step forward last season after posting a 3.55 ERA and 1.10 WHIP across 147 innings in 2022. Indeed, he increased his strikeout rate from 25.0% to 29.3% and lowered his walk rate from 7.8% to 5.1% while throwing 161 innings for the playoff-bound Twins. But those gains were diminished by allowing the seventh-most home runs in the league. As a flyball pitcher who has been in the bottom percentiles in groundball rate in both 2022 and 2023, he will be susceptible to the long ball and HR/9 variance. Assuming regression to league average in 2024, though, ERA estimators project around a 4.00 ERA with a better-than-average WHIP for the 27-year-old. That’s a solid midrotation starter.

105. Roman Anthony, OF, Red Sox — Anthony ranks as the No. 2 prospect in the Red Sox organization entering 2024. The teenager had a .272/.403/.466 slash line across three levels in 2023. We expect him to be a middle of the order bat who could hit 20 or more homers a year, with even more value in OBP leagues.

106. Carlos Rodon, LHP, Yankees — Rodon dealt with injuries that limited him to just 14 starts in his first season in New York. There’s concern the back injury he dealt with last year could be a chronic issue, which isn’t great news for managers of the 31-year-old lefty in fantasy. Rodon has the ability to be one of the bigger bounceback players of 2024 if he can remain healthy and approach his production from 2021 and 2022. Rodon is a classic risk versus reward proposition in fantasy.

107. Nolan Gorman, 2B, Cardinals –The 2023 season was one of disappointment for the Cardinals, but Gorman’s play was a bright spot as he hit 27 home runs with an .805 OPS. Gorman finished 10th among second basemen in wRC+ (118) and was fourth in home runs. Gorman turns 24 during the 2024 season, and it’s reasonable to expect slight skill gains in the coming seasons. 

108. Gavin Williams, RHP, Guardians — Williams showed his high-powered arsenal can be effective against major league hitters over 16 starts in 2023. His fastball and slider both graded out as above-average pitchers per run value. His command was shaky at times (10.7% walk rate), but he showed swing-and-miss ability (12.1% swinging strike rate) and pitched to a 2.98 ERA and 25.1% strikeout rate post all-star break. Williams will start the season on the IL.

109. Christian Encarnacion-Strand, 1B, Reds — The signing of Jeimer Candelario made the Reds infield battle even murkier, but Noelvi Marte’s PED suspension opened up playing time for Encarnacion-Strand.

110. Walker Jenkins, OF, Twins — One of two highly touted prep hitters at the top of the class, Jenkins enjoyed a strong debut, hitting .362/.417/.571 over 26 games across two levels. Jenkins showed advanced plate skills and plus power projection that hints at one of the top upsides in the class.

111. George Springer, OF, Blue Jays — Springer had the worst year of his career in 2023 despite achieving a 20/20 season, posting a slugging percentage below .430 and an OBP below .330 for the first time. Don’t expect too much of a resurgence entering his age-34 season considering his sprint speed has declined for three straight years. Still, hitting at the top of a potent Blue Jays lineup should allow him to rank as a top-30 outfielder for at least two of his final three years of his remaining contract.

112. Gabriel Moreno, C, D-backs — After a big NLCS and WS where he batted third, restricted the running game and generally showed impressive composure at 23 years old, Moreno’s dynasty value skyrocketed. Already a good hitter who will bring batting average and OBP, Moreno showed that there is thump in his bat, too.

113. Ricky Tiedemann, LHP, Blue Jays — An early May biceps injury robbed Tiedemann of the majority of his 2023, but he returned late in the season and impressed in the Arizona Fall League. He’s a low-slot lefthander with a chance to develop three plus pitches with above-average command. Health is the biggest question mark facing the Blue Jays top prospect.

114. Jared Jones, RHP, Pirates: Jones broke camp as a member of the Pirates rotation and struck out ten in his major league debut. Jones has an upper-90s fastball with a hard plus slider and a deceptive release.

115. Edwin Diaz, RHP, Mets — Mets fans were ready to cancel the World Baseball Classic after Diaz suffered a season-ending injury celebrating a team Puerto Rico victory. The closer is poised to return to full strength in 2024. At 29 years old, Diaz is one of the elite relievers in the game and should have several more years of relevance.

116 Josh Lowe, OF, Rays –Putting up a 20-homer, 30-steal season in your major league debut at 25 years old, let alone doing it over only 501 plate appearances, will cause your dynasty stock to skyrocket. The Rays will probably platoon him, at least in the near future, but his home run and stolen base rates per plate appearancewithout hurting your batting average or OBPshould keep Lowe’s value sky high.

117. Bryson Stott, 2B, Phillies –Stott was a below league-average performer as a rookie hitting .234/.295/.358 over 127 games. He returned strong in his sophomore campaign, hitting .280/.329/.419 with 15 home runs and 31 stolen bases in 2023. Stott shows strong underlying skills with solid-average exit velocity data. It’s not unreasonable to expect slight power gains in the coming years with slight tweaks. Stott’s contact skills provide a high floor of production outside the top names at the position. 

118. Jackson Merrill, OF, Padres — No player had the meteoric rise that Merrill has had this offseason, at just 20 years old Merrill will break camp with the Padres, making him one of the youngest players in the majors over the last few seasons. Merrill is the same age as 2024 College eligible draftees and will be starting games for a competitive major league club.

119. Tanner Bibee, RHP, Guardians — Hip inflammation ended Bibee’s standout rookie campaign, but the righthander impressed over his previous 25 starts. Bibee showed above-average bat-missing ability and command. His fastball, slider and changeup all graded as above-average pitches per run values. Health permitting, Bibee looks like a fantasy No. 2 in the making.

120. Dylan Cease, RHP, Padres — After finishing as the sixth-best pitcher in fantasy in 2022, the bottom fell out for Cease in 2023 en route to finishing as starting pitcher No. 127. Cease’s command backed up and he was hit hard. There’s some bad batted ball luck at play with Cease and a potential change of scenery might do him some good. Cease has elite bat-missing ability (13.6% swinging strike rate) and the stuff to back it. At 28 years old, Cease isn’t a bad bounceback candidate in dynasty with the move to San Diego.

121. Christian Walker, 1B, D-backs — Walker has been underrated his entire career. His 69 more home runs over the last two years are more than Yordan Alvarez, Manny Machado, Paul Goldschmidt and Rafael Devers. Although he will be 33 years old heading into 2024, Walker should be good for about 30 home runs and 100 RBIs in a D-backs lineup looking to be World Series bound again.

122. James Wood, OF, Nationals — The hulking outfielder had 26 home runs and 18 stolen bases across two minor league levels in 2023. There is little doubt that he will hit 30+ homers for the Nationals for years and contribute double-digit steals. But he needs to cut back on the strikeouts, especially against secondaries, if he wants to become a top-tier fantasy contributor.

123. Nolan Arenado, 3B, Cardinals — For the naysayers, 2023 was the season where the wheels came off for Arenado after finishing inside the top 4-6 at the position in each of the last three full seasons, Arenado ranked 15th among third baseman in 2023 per the Razzball player rater. Arenado hit under 30 home runs for the first time since 2014, while also producing under 100 RBIs for the first time since 2014. With the counting stats drying up, Arenado presents a solid floor option, but his days of top 5-10 third base seasons might be over.

124. Jackson Jobe, RHP, Tigers — Jobe missed the first half of the 2023 season with a back injury, but once he returned, he was every bit as dominant as the Tigers had hoped for when they picked him third overall in 2021. Jobe has multiple ways to get hitters out, as well as some of the best pure stuff in the minors.

125. Noelvi Marte, 3B, Reds — Entering the spring few rookies had the level of hype Marte did, but an 80 game suspension for PEDs that came down in early March. Marte had a .280 batting average across the upper levels in 2023. His .316/.366/.456 debut in the majors over 123 plate appearances showed he could be a power/speed combo. It’s tough to know how much was synthetic. We’re moving Marte down for now but will hold here until he returns.

126. Jordan Lawlar, SS, D-backs — In his second professional season, the No. 6 overall pick in the 2021 draft took a big step forward with the bat. Lawlar cut his strikeout rate by nearly 10 percentage points while improving his contact rate, chase rate, and exit velocities. Still only 21 years old, though his MLB debut was less than auspicious, his glove should give him a high floor and he should be able to string together multiple 20/20 seasons with solid batting average and OBP.

127. Luis Arraez, 2B, Marlins — In standard 5×5 batting average leagues, Arraez is a category stuffer. His .354 batting average in 2023 was the first time a hitter qualified for the batting title hitting above .350 since Josh Hamilton in 2010. Arraez hit a career high 10 home runs while reaching new career highs in hits, RBIs and isolated slugging. His profile is heavily slanted toward batting average and point- style scoring where strikeouts are a negative. His lack of all-around skills makes Arraez less attractive than his batting average lets on.

128. Ian Happ, OF, Cubs — Another outfielder who should hit roughly 20 home runs with around 10 steals, Happ is a solid contributor, especially in OBP leagues. He should be in the middle of the Cubs’ lineup for the next three years and doesn’t turn 30 until the 2024 season is almost over.

129. Jorge Soler, OF, Giants — Soler signed a three-year, $42 million deal with the Giants in February. Prior to that, we wrote the Cuban slugger where one of the rare free agents where his landing spot likely won’t impact his power projection too much. But San Francisco is one of the few parks that may slightly inhibit his home run totals. Assuming health, count on him for at least 30 home runs over the next two to three years. He could easily reach 40 or more, but it’s likely he loses outfield eligibility somewhere along the way.

130. Chris Sale, LHP, Braves — The lefthander has struggled with health dating back to the 2019 season as he’s had Tommy John surgery as well as a litany of other issues. Sale logged more than 100 innings for the first time since 2019 and pitched to a 3.72 xFIP, 29.4% strikeout rate and a 6.8% walk rate. He pitched well after returning in August and now finds himself in a much better situation with the Braves after they acquired him from the Red Sox. Sale has an opportunity to return to fantasy relevancy with a full healthy season with the Braves.

131. Adael Amador, SS, Rockies — Amador has shown some of the best plate skills in the minor leagues over the last three seasons. In 2023, Amador was one of four players in the minor leagues with a contact rate of 87% or above, an in-zone contact rate of 88% or above, a chase rate of 21% or less and an average exit velocity above 85 mph. While Amador lacks above-average power, his combination of barrel control with fringy raw power allows him to be one of the most complete hitters in the minors.

132. Alec Bohm, 3B, Phillies — Bohm has been a consistent performer for his managers over the last few seasons. He produced the 12th-best season by a third baseman in 2022 and ranked 14th per the Razzball player rater in 2023. Bohm set new career highs in home runs (20) and RBIs (97), while striking out just 15.4% of the time in 2023. Bohm hits the ball on the ground more than you’d like, and his power hitting is capped by his more level swing, but he provides a solid floor of production for standard 5×5 roto scoring.

133. Lars Nootbaar, OF, Cardinals With the trade of Tyler O’Neill, the Cardinals indirectly showed their faith in Nootbaar. With an extremely similar profile to Seiya Suzukibut three years youngerNootbaar should be a solid contributor to any fantasy team, with a boost in OBP leagues.

134. Yainer Diaz, C, Astros –If you hit 20+ home runs in fewer than 400 plate appearances and are not yet 25 years old, it generally implies that you will be a 30-homer hitter at some point in the next few years. Translation: dynasty asset. If you’re doing all that while a catcher? Even more valuable.

135. Bryce Miller, RHP, Mariners — Entering 2023, Miller was viewed as a strong pitching prospect with some relief risk. After struggling over four starts at Double-A to begin 2023, Miller was promoted to majors and made 25 starts. He racked up 131 innings, striking out 22.2% of batters he faced while walking just 4.8%. Miller sits 94-96 mph with excellent fastball movement, and he leans into its quality throwing 66.1% fastballs in 2023. Miller’s slider showed well in spurts and his changeup graded as a fringe-average pitch.

136. Brandon Nimmo, OF, Mets — Nimmo’s playing time shouldn’t change despite the Mets signing Harrison Bader, although Nimmo will likely slide over to left field. His elite OBPhe has a career .380 markmeans he is the table-setter for Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso and Francisco Alvarez. Nimmo fits the same archetype as Bryan Reynolds, Ian Happ, et al, but is already in his 30s.

137. Anthony Santander, OF, Orioles — The last two years have been remarkably consistent for Santander and 2024 looks to be the same: .250/.320 with 30 home runs. The 29-year-old will be a free agent after the season, and the resultant uncertainty of what his future home will be, paired with the fact that he may be signed as a DH only, lowers his value slightly from what his performance projections should imply.

138. Emmanuel Clase, RHP, Guardians — A year after finishing as the top reliever in fantasy in 2022, Clase slipped back to eighth overall. Clase put up nearly identical totals in innings and saves year over year, but saw his strikeouts drop 25% year over year. Both his cut-fastball and slider took a step back. Clase did lose a half a mph on his fastball velocity and it’s uncertain if that was the difference, or if it was merely just bad luck.

139. Max Muncy, 3B, Dodgers — In many ways, Muncy has been underrated for years by the consensus. After a down season in 2022 that saw Muncy finish outside the top 10 at the position for the first time since 2017, the slugger bounced back in 2023 with 36 home runs, 95 runs and 105 RBIs. Due to the nature of Muncy’s approach, he loses value in batting average 5×5 roto leagues. For those in OBP or points-based scoring formats, Muncy is a very productive option heading into his age-33 season.

140. Jordan Westburg, 2B/3B, Orioles — Westburg began his 2023 season with Triple-A Norfolk hitting .295/.372/.567 with 18 home runs over the first half of the season. He was promoted to the major leagues in late June and hit .260/.311/.404 over 68 games. While his underlying stats are pedestrian, Westburg shows a collection of skills that will make him relevant in fantasy in the coming years. His average plate skills complement above-average exit velocity data (90.2 mph average) and hard-hit rate (44.5%) while showing the ability to pull the ball in the air. But as a righthander, his home ballpark in Baltimore isn’t ideal. 

141. Cedric Mullins, OF, Orioles — After stealing 30 or more bases in 2021 and 2022, Mullins’ 19 steals in 2023 were disappointing considering the new rules. We can most likely attribute the decline to two groin-related injuries rather than a sign he is past his prime years. Mullins will still only be 29 years old for the entire 2024 season, and assuming health, should bounce back to a 20/25 season in the midst of a championship-caliber lineup.

142. Matt Shaw, SS, Cubs — The former Cape Cod League MVP enjoyed one of the best post-draft debuts, hitting .357/.400/.618 across three levels and reaching Double-A. An exciting combination of hitting ability, power and speed, Shaw looks like a multi-category contributor.

143. Brandon Lowe, 2B, Rays — Chronic back issues have impacted Lowe’s production in each of the last two seasons and hasn’t recaptured his 2021 form. Lowe has power and on-base skills, and his 117 wRC+ ranked 11th among second basemen with 400 or more plate appearances. If Lowe can put together a full healthy season, he could return good value in OBP-style scoring formats in 2024. Lowe has ability, it’s just a matter of him maintaining health after two injury-plagued campaigns.

144. Chas McCormick, OF, Astros — McCormick managed 22 home runs and 19 stolen bases in only 457 plate appearances and provided above average defensive value in all three outfield spots. On the positive side, McCormick should get full-time at-bats with Dusty Baker no longer at the helm for the Astros. The counterpoint is that McCormick’s offensive track record is extremely short and, out of prudence, is a step down from Ian Happ and Brandon Nimmo.

145. Ezequiel Tovar, SS, Rockies — Tovar is an excellent defender, which sets a high floor for playing time, and hit near the top of the order for most of 2023. But the ascendance of Nolan Jones and (hopefully) full seasons from Kris Bryant and Brendan Rodgers may drop Tovar down the batting order unless he increases his production. Tovar posted a .695 OPS last year–and that’s with the Coors BABIP bump. On the positive side of the ledger, he had 15 home runs, 11 stolen bases and is only 22 years old. Expect something like 20 home runs and 15 stolen bases in 2024.

146. Nathaniel Lowe, 1B, Rangers — Despite the overall success of the Rangers lineup in 2023, Lowe had a down year. His hard-hit rate, barrel rate and expected numbers all dropped. Lowe showed improved skills, but his calling card power regressed as he hit just 17 home runs. Lowe did see a bump in on-base percentage, and it’s not outrageous to anticipate some positive power regression back to his 2022 numbers. He’s an ideal fit in most 12-team leagues as a corner infielder or utility player.

147. Hunter Brown, RHP, Astros — The fireballing Brown dealt with tricky luck over 29 starts during his rookie campaign. Brown showed the ability to generate groundballs (52.4% groundball rate) and strikeouts (10.29 K/9), but was crushed by bad luck on balls in play (.330 BABIP). With three pitches that feature outlier power, it’s not unreasonable to expect Brown to take a step forward in 2024.

148. J.T. Realmuto, C, Phillies — Since 2021, JTR has been the No. 2, No. 1 and No. 4 catcher, respectively, in 15-team batting average formats, and was by far the biggest contributor to the stolen base category of any catcher. The bad news is that he will be entering his age-33 season and produced his lowest fWAR season since 2017 (along with his lowest walk rate and highest strikeout rate over that same period). The end is not necessarily near, but this may be his last season in the top 10 for dynasty.

149. Spencer Steer, 1B/OF, Reds — Acquired alongside Christian Encarnacion-Strand in the Tyler Mahle trade, Steer had a standout rookie campaign in 2023. He hit .271/.356/.464 with 23 home runs and 15 steals, while striking out 20.9% of the time. Steer has an exciting mix of contact skills, approach, power and speed. There doesn’t seem to be any area of Steer’s profile that points toward coming regression in 2024.

150. Eloy Jimenez, OF, White Sox — Jimenez played 14 games in the outfield last year, so he may still be eligible to play in the grass depending on your league settings. With his litany of lower body, soft-tissue injuries, don’t be surprised if he is a full-time DH for the rest of his career. That might be in his best interest though, as it should protect his plate appearance totals. Still only 27 years old, he is a valuable contributor with above-average numbers in four categories and arguably underrated.

151. Joe Musgrove, RHP, Padres — Musgrove was a top-20 pitcher in 2021 and a top-30 pitcher in 2022. But he made just 17 starts in 2023 and his value took a tumble. Musgrove enters his age-31 season with a good setup to return to value, as he missed time early with a freak toe injury (he dropped a weight on it) and late-season shoulder soreness. The latter injury is certainly a wart, but the production was there when Musgrove was healthy in 2023. Musgrove could have a few more top-30 starting pitcher seasons remaining if he can stay healthy.

152. Bryan Woo, RHP, Mariners — After a dominant showing with Double-A Arkansas to begin the season, Woo was promoted to the major leagues where he impressed over 18 starts. Woo mixes a mid-90s fastball from a low release and it accounts for 70% of his usage. He shares similar concerns as fellow Mariners righty Bryce Miller, as his fastball usage is unusually high. Woo throws a cutter and slider, and increased usage of either could welcome more sustainable production.

153. Isaac Paredes, 3B, Rays — Paredes faced playing time questions entering 2023 with the Rays, but he enjoyed one of the year’s biggest breakout campaigns. He hit 31 homers and drove in 98 runs, mostly on the strength of his pulled flyball rate, despite seeing a decline in average exit velocity, max exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rate. Expect some regression in 2024, but considering he is only entering his age-25 season and his contact rates are world class, he should still be expected to be a 25-home run threat with multi-positional eligibility.

154. Mason Miller, RHP, Athletics — Miller enters the season ranked as Oakland’s No. 1 Prospect. He impressed when healthy in 2023, striking out 27.3% of batters in the majors with a 98.3 mph average four-seam fastball that ranked in the 97th percentile among pitchers. Health, though, is the bugaboo for Miller, who has missed significant time each of the last two seasons with injury. The A’s said this winter they’re likely to limit Miller to a relief role in 2024, potentially putting him in line for saves (which may be few and far between) but limiting his short-term value. He has frontline starter stuff if he can manage to stay healthy in the long run.

155. Jacob deGrom, RHP, Rangers — DeGrom was discounted in drafts heading into 2023 because of his poor health the previous two seasons. Worst fears were confirmed when DeGrom went down with an elbow injury that required Tommy John surgery in late April. Whether or not he can return to his pre-2021 form is a major question, but it’s a worthy gamble if you’re a year away from competing.

156. Colson Montgomery, SS, White Sox — Despite dealing with injuries in 2023, Montgomery’s underlying data was excellent. The shortstop has a knack for optimizing his best contact, leading to some of the best expected numbers in the minor leagues. Montgomery’s .408 xWOBA, 104.7 mph 90th percentile exit velocity and .433 xWOBAcon showcase his combination of plate skills, hard contact and optimal launch angles. If Montgomery can stay healthy he has an opportunity to see a heavy chunk of his time in 2024 and beyond as the White Sox starting shortstop.

157. Bo Naylor, C, Guardians –Although it was only 230 plate appearances, Naylor had little fanfare considering he had a higher wRC+ in 2023 than Will Smith, Jonah Heim and Cal Raleigh. He is better in OBP leagues than batting average leagues. Naylor is only entering his age-24 season and is a legitimate threat for double-digit steals, so his dynasty arrow is way up.

158. Samuel Basallo, C, Orioles –RoboScout’s favorite catcher, Basallo projects to be a 30–home run bat at peak. Unfortunately for him—and fortunately for the Orioles—Adley Rutschman won’t be relinquishing his position any time soon. That’s okay, though, because Basallo’s bat is so good it would play at DH or 1B.

159. Shane McClanahan, LHP, Rays — McClanahan looked poised to perform as one of the 10 best fantasy starters in baseball in 2023 after finishing as the 11th-best pitcher in 2022. Instead, he underwent Tommy John surgery and is on the shelf for all of 2024. McClanahan will be 28 years old when he returns and it’s a question as to whether or not he retains his upper-90s fastball long term.

160. Nick Lodolo, LHP, Reds — After a standout rookie campaign in 2022, Lodolo entered 2023 with significant buzz. Unfortunately, the hype didn’t match the production, as Lodolo was limited to just seven starts total. When healthy, the 6-foot-6 lefty mixes an unusual fastball shape with a nasty slider and a changeup. It’s never been a matter of stuff or execution with Lodolo, but simply whether or not he can maintain health.

161. Zach Neto, SS, Angels — Neto acquitted himself well enough in his big league debut to validate the Angels’ decision to call him up after just 201 minor league plate appearances. An oblique and back injury essentially cut his debut short in August, before which he had a 99 wRC+ with eight home runs and five stolen bases in 252 plate appearances. Heading into the season at age 23, he is projected as a league-average bat with 20 home runs and 10 stolen bases.

162. Justin Steele, LHP, Cubs — After a standout second half in 2022, Steele rode that momentum into 2023 finishing 10th overall among pitchers. Steele is unique, as he’s a two-pitch lefthander that sits low 90s on his fastball. He does a great job of generating whiffs against his fastball and slider particularly out of the zone. Steele proved late 2022 was no fluke, but whether or not he can hold this level of production remains to be seen.

163. Andrew Painter, RHP, Phillies — Before having Tommy John surgery, Painter ranked as one of the sport’s elite pitching prospects. Even after the surgery, little has changed. If his stuff returns intact, he could give Philly its next homegrown ace.

164. Jhoan Duran, RHP, Twins — One of the premier power relievers in the game, Duran took over closer duties for the Twins in 2023 and saved 27 games. His power mix is noteworthy, as his splinker sits 97-98 mph and is the first secondary to touch 100 mph in MLB history. A power reliever through and through, a top-five closer season for Duran in 2024 isn’t out of the realm of possibility.

165. Andres Munoz, RHP, Mariners — Munoz essentially assumed the Mariners closer role after they traded Paul Sewald to the D-backs and is the presumptive favorite to retain the role heading into 2024. Although he missed the first two months of the season with a shoulder injury, his fastball/slider combo was nearly as dominant as 2022. He is not a lock for 30 saves with Matt Brash on the team, but he should bring great ratios and a strikeout rate of around 12 K/9.

166. Kyle Bradish, RHP, Orioles — After an unspectacular rookie campaign in 2022, Bradish took a giant step forward in 2023, ranking as the 10th-best pitcher in fantasy in 2023. His mix of two above-average breaking balls, a sinker and cut-fastball helped Bradish cruise to a 2.83 ERA and around a strikeout per inning. Bradish is 27 years old entering 2024 and showed the ability to provide quality innings for a playoff-caliber team. However, Bradish dropped in our March update while we monitor how he and the Orioles deal with an elbow injury. Bradish will open the season in the injured list with a UCL sprain in his right elbow.

167. Colt Emerson, SS, Mariners — One of the better combinations of contact, approach and power in the class, Emerson hit .374/.496/.549 across two levels in his debut. No player raised his stock like Emerson after the draft, as he’s now viewed universally as a top-10 FYPD pick.

168. Jake Burger, 3B, Marlins — Burger broke out in 2023, making good on his promise as an amateur after a difficult stretch of injuries. Over 141 games split between the White Sox and the Marlins, Burger slugged 34 home runs, good enough for 14th in all of MLB. Burger lacks refined on-base skills and will run higher strikeout rates, but he’s a very strong option for a corner infield spot in 15 to 20-team dynasty leagues with standard 5×5 scoring.

169. Andrew Vaughn, 1B, White Sox — The expectations for Vaughn coming out of college have never fully materialized. After a detour to the outfield, Vaughn played his first full season at his natural home of first base. Vaughn hit .258/.314/.429 with a career high of 21 home runs. Vaughn is the best fit in a corner infield or utility spot. He saw a climb in line-drive rate and fly-ball rate due to a positive improvement in launch angle. Further improvements could lead to a jump in production in 2024.

170. Kyle Harrison, LHP, Giants — Harrison quieted critics when he pitched well over seven starts for the Giants over the final month of 2023. Harrison’s three pitch mix is led by his unique four-seam fastball that plays well above its average velocity of 93.6 mph due to his outlier low release height and the approach angle on the pitch. He reworked his slider to a better bat-missing shape entering 2023 and deploys a changeup that has flashed average or better for stretches. If Harrison’s continues to refine his command he could develop into a mid rotation arm with strikeout upside.

171. Pete Crow-Armstrong, OF, Cubs — Crow-Armstrong’s elite center field defense will provide a high playing time floor. He should also produce 20 or more steals annually. The hit tool is the question mark, as he put up a higher strikeout rate in Triple-A than fellow 21 year-old Elly De La Cruz. Crow-Armstrong has surprising pop, with 90th percentile exit velocities and barrel rates that suggest 20 home runs at peak. But don’t expect batting averages further north than .250. Crow-Armstrong dropped 20+ spots in our March update following Cody Bellinger’s return to Chicago.

172. Shota Imanga, LHP, Cubs — So far, so good for the Cubs signing out of Japan. Imanaga shows a combination of execution and strong pitch movement characteristics to overcome a lack of velocity on his fastball. The early returns look good.

173. Steven Kwan, OF, Guardians — Elite contact skills and baserunning abilitynot to mention above-average defensemeans that Kwan’s fantasy floor is as high as it comes: .280/.360 with 20 stolen bases. His barrel rates and exit velocities don’t get much lower. Despite the single-digit home runs, he was still a top-15 outfielder as recently as 2022 in 15-team batting average leagues.

174. Cade Horton, RHP, Cubs — Horton bounced back from Tommy John surgery to carry Oklahoma to the College World Series finals in 2022 and was drafted seventh overall by the Cubs. He raced to Double-A in his pro debut and projects to be a frontline starter with a mid-90s fastball, devastating slider and rapidly improving curveball and changeup. Horton could debut later in 2024 and has the ability to develop into a top-30 fantasy pitcher with high strikeout totals.

175. Shane Baz, RHP, Rays — Baz was trending toward becoming one of the top young pitchers in baseball prior to undergoing Tommy John surgery. He has the pitch mix and stuff to navigate big league lineups consistently, deploying an easily plus fastball with whiff-inducing qualities, a plus slider and an average changeup. His ceiling in the coming seasons will be dictated by how quickly he returns to form from injury.

176. Brandon Pfaadt, RHP, D-backs — In his final 10 regular season starts, Pfaadt had a 1.26 WHIP and 4.14 ERA, looking more like the pitching prospect who racked up 218 strikeouts in the minor leagues the previous year. In the postseason, Pfaadt’s success carried over with 22 more innings of a 1.09 WHIP and 3.27 ERA and 26 strikeouts. Pfaadt will be 25 years old for the entire season and looks to be a solid midrotation starter.

177. Dansby Swanson, SS, Cubs — For the second consecutive season, the No. 1 overall pick in 2015 essentially produced 5 WAR or better. Unfortunately for us in fantasy, the bulk of Swanson’s value comes from the defensive side of the ball after winning two consecutive Gold Gloves. After putting up 18 stolen bases in 2022, his nine last year were a disappointment with the new rules. He is in the same cluster as other 20-homer, 10-steal shortstops with average batting average and OBP. He’s incredibly safe, but he’s on the wrong side of 30 years old.

178. Taj Bradley, RHP, Rays — Bradley was the Rays’ No. 3 Prospect entering 2023. He endured a rocky major league debut, finishing with a 1.39 WHIP and 5.59 ERA over 104.2 innings. His proclivity for giving up the long ball was his main issue and he finished the year with a HR/9 near 2.0 including Triple-A Durham. Still, the stuff is above-average and he had an 80th percentile strikeout rate in the majors, even despite more than 70% of his starts coming against teams with an above-average wRC+ including the Braves, plus the Rangers, Astros and Blue Jays twice.

179. Kyle Manzardo, 1B, Guardians — The nagging question with Manzardo is whether he will show enough power at first base. After being traded to the Guardians in the second half of 2023, Manzardo hit well and carried over the momentum to the Arizona Fall League. Expect him to debut in 2024 and be a first baseman in the mold of Vinnie Pasquantino and Nathaniel Lowe: hit over power, but with enough pop to be rostered confidently at the corner.

180. Max Clark, OF, Tigers — A long-time standout on the showcase circuit, Clark has advanced plate skills, speed and a high-motor approach to the game. Clark has the ability to grow into a multi-category asset who projects as a dynamic leadoff type.

181. Josh Hader, LHP, Astros — Hader signed a five-year deal with the Astros entering his age-30 season, creating a formidable three-headed bullpen beast with Ryan Pressley and Bryan Abreu. Although presumed to be the closer, Hader provides incredible value with his rate stats and strikeout rate, though he hasn’t topped 60 innings in a season since 2019.

182. Lane Thomas, OF, Nationals: Prior to 2023, Lane Thomas had a wRC+ of exactly 100 and 20 home runs, and 10 stolen bases (on a 600 plate appearance basis) essentially embodying a league average hitter. In his age-27 season in 2023, Lane Thomas exploded with a 3 fWAR season and a 28 home run and 20 stolen base season and a .268 batting average. With the limited track record, his 2024 projection had wide error bands but so far in only 10 games, he has already stolen 6 bases, with a higher walk rate and lower strikeout rate than in 2023, all while being firmly entrenched at the top of the order for the Nationals. Seems like his floor is a 20/20 outfielder.

183. Masyn Winn, SS, Cardinals — Long billed for his all-world throwing arm, Winn has developed into one of the more refined hitters in the minor leagues. Despite fringe-average power, Winn has excellent bat-to-ball skills and solid approach. His speed allows him to get the most out of his contact and he has enough power to project for 15-to-18 home runs annually.

184. Kodai Senga, RHP, Mets — Senga after a tremendous rookie season is on the shelf with a shoulder injury and a questionable return date. Senga still has the skills but his murky health has him dropping 60+ spots.

185. Logan O’Hoppe, C, Angels — Offensively, O’Hoppe is an above-average slugger who should annually hit 20+ home runs. Behind the dish, though, the Angels catcher struggled to control the running game and was in the lower percentile of defensive metrics. That may ultimately move him off the position (where he will still be an asset).

186. Ke’Bryan Hayes, 3B, Pirates — As a prospect, Hayes was hyped for his Gold Glove caliber defense, on-base ability and running ability. While his defense has been as advertised, his base running and on-base skills have not been impactful. After two seasons of below-league average production, Hayes took a step forward in 2023, hitting .271/.309/.453 with 15 home runs. A significant jump in flyball rate year over year and improvements in underlying exit velocity data and steeper launch angles led to power growth for Hayes in 2023. Hayes is a player on the upswing heading into 2024.

187. Walker Buehler, RHP, Dodgers — The two-time all-star hasn’t pitched in a major league game since June 2022 as he recovers from Tommy John surgery. He enters 2024 in the middle of a star-studded Dodgers rotation. He’s likely to have a late start and quite a few skipped turns throughout the season. This limits some of Buehler’s immediate value in fantasy as he’s unlikely to surpass the 130 inning threshold in 2024. Between 2018 and 2021 Buehler was one of the 10 best pitchers in baseball and at 29 years old still has runway for several top-30 fantasy seasons, but it’s unlikely to be in 2024.

188. Sal Frelick, OF, Brewers — Frelick’s plus defense, outstanding hit tool, and above-average baserunning ability puts him squarely in the Steven Kwan phylum. With seven stolen bases and zero times caught, don’t be surprised if he pilfers 20 bags in his first full season.

189. Chase DeLauter, OF, Guardians — A loud performance in spring training has raised DeLauter’s stock and puts him on the cusp of the major leagues in 2024. He should debut this summer and provides potential for five category contributions.

190. Rhys Hoskins, 1B, Brewers — Averaging 30 home runs per 600 plate appearances over his career, Hoskins missed all of 2023 after tearing his ACL in spring training. He should be fully ready to go in 2024 and should also be expected to continue where he left off with 25 to 30 home runs and good OBPs for a few more years.

191. Cal Raleigh, C, Mariners — In the last two years, Raleigh hit the most home runs of any catcher, averaging 30 per season. Now 27, this fan favorite should easily be counted on to average 25 homers for the next four years assuming health.

192. Reid Detmers, LHP, Angels: Although a trendy breakout pick in 2023 because of his velocity boost in Spring Training, Detmers disappointed with a 1.35 WHIP and 4.48 ERA (and only 4 Wins) in 148.2 innings. So far in 2024, Detmers is living up to the previous year’s promise, finding himself in the league’s 97th percentile for K rate and Whiff rate after adding half a tick to his fastball. From a mix perspective, he seems to be throwing the change up more than the slider. Still only 24 years old, in this age of pitcher attrition, he is an arrow-up mid-rotation starter.

193. Brett Baty, 3B, Mets — Baty debuted in 2022 at age 22 and spent the majority of 2023 with the big league club. He hit .212/.275/.323 over 108 games and very much under-delivered on expectations. Baty has similar struggles to Alec Bohm, as he hits the ball hard and with frequency but lacks the angles on contact to optimize his underlying raw power in games. Baty has areas he’ll need to improve heading into 2024, but in the minors he’s shown a solid combination of contact, approach and power.

194. Daulton Varsho, OF, Blue Jays — Varsho enters 2024 with low perceived value after losing catcher eligibility. He should gain roughly 600 plate appearances this season considering he’s a Gold Glove-worthy outfielder. That could be both a blessing and a curse. On the one hand, it should allow him to accrue the valuable combination of approximately25 home runs and 15 steals. But on the other hand, that will more negatively impact your roster’s batting average or OBP. Heading into his age-27 season as part of a solid Blue Jays offense, the math suggests the tradeoff is worth it.

195. Jonathan India, 2B, Reds — India has combined to hit just .246/.333/.394 over his last two seasons since a standout rookie campaign in 2021 where he hit .269/.376/.459 with 21 homers. He possesses strong on-base skills, average or better bat-to-ball skills and solid underlying power, but he hasn’t put it all together since 2021. Injuries have certainly played a role. India played through plantar fasciitis last season and it may have played a role in his down season. India is a solid bounceback candidate in 2024 if he can remain healthy. 

196. Jung Hoo Lee, OF, Giants: Pre-season projections had Lee as a high average, high on base, 10 home run 10 stolen base hitter at the top of the order. Although still in the adjustment phase to MLB life, Lee has already hit a ball 109 mph (higher than any balls Marcus Semien hit in 2023) and a higher than 50% hard hit rate (86th percentile). The superficial results haven’t come yet but his profile so far does nothing to suggest he won’t meet expectations.

197. Henry Davis, C/OF, Pirates: With the season ending injury to Endy Rodriguez, Davis was given the keys to the full-time catching role – and has played 8 of the team’s first 10 games at catcher. Although the Pirates recently signed Joey Bart after he was released by the Giants, and with Yasmani Grandal’s pending return from the IL, Davis should still gain catcher eligibility in 2024 (and carry it over into 2025). That alone is worth a significant dynasty value boost. Although he has struggled so far in 2024, he has cut his chase rate by over 10%. With the hot start of the Pirates, he will likely be given a longer leash to acclimatize to the position. We view this as a buy low opportunity if your league mates are impatient.

198. Thairo Estrada, 2B, Giants — Estrada has been one of the sneakiest performers in fantasy, ranking eighth among second basemen in 2022 and 22nd in 2023. Estrada’s drop in value in 2023 was heavily rooted in a drop in counting stats and the abundance of stolen bases with the new rules. Entering his age-28 season, Estrada has a good floor of mid-teens power, 25-30 stolen bases and a .260 to .270 average. He’s a perfect fit for a middle infield spot in your lineup and a complementary piece to the top names at the position.

199. Jack Suwinski, OF, Pirates — Considering he will be only 25 years old, Suwinski’s expected production of approximately 25 home runs and 10 stolen bases should give him robust dynasty value. Unfortunately, his batting average in the low .200s on account of his strikeout rate, perhaps unfairly, provides a sink to his dynasty value. The Pirates have cycled through options in the outfield in recent years, but with his above-average defense, Suwinski has a leg up to emerge as a full-time regular for the next few years

200. Kerry Carpenter, OF, Tigers — A late stage prospect breakout, Carpenter has proven his 2022 30 home run season between Double-A and Triple-A was no fluke. He hit 20 home runs in 2023 and looks to be in the thick of a resurgent young Tigers core.

201-700

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Fantasy Podcast: In-Season Top 700 Dynasty Rankings Update https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/fantasy-podcast-in-season-top-700-dynasty-rankings-update/ https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/fantasy-podcast-in-season-top-700-dynasty-rankings-update/#respond Wed, 10 Apr 2024 15:37:59 +0000 https://www.baseballamerica.com/?p=1373021 On this week’s episode of the Baseball America Fantasy Podcast, Dylan White and Geoff Pontes discuss the epidemic of pitching injuries and how we’re navigating…

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On this week’s episode of the Baseball America Fantasy Podcast, Dylan White and Geoff Pontes discuss the epidemic of pitching injuries and how we’re navigating it with our own fantasy teams. We released an updated Top 700 for Dynasty with a few major adjustments due to the injuries to Spencer Strider, Gerrit Cole and Eury Perez.

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Dynasty Fantasy Stock Watch: Assessing Value In Early April https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/dynasty-fantasy-stock-watch-assessing-value-in-early-april/ https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/dynasty-fantasy-stock-watch-assessing-value-in-early-april/#respond Tue, 09 Apr 2024 13:21:17 +0000 https://www.baseballamerica.com/?p=1372333 Welcome to the first installment of the dynasty stock watch—reporting on the movement we made to the Dynasty 700 in light of new playing time…

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Welcome to the first installment of the dynasty stock watchreporting on the movement we made to the Dynasty 700 in light of new playing time information, small sample performance, and (gulp) injuries. Even this early in the season, even with only over a week of performance, there are still some changes to dynasty values.

In most cases, it is still extremely early in the season, and we should refrain from overreacting to a week’s worth of major league performance and some Spring Training. Although this is generally true, there are some news items or actionable performance outcomes that we should be responding to. In other words, as a whole, we minimized movement-for-the-sake-of-movement. Even then, there have been some significant changes to dynasty values.

Rather than reporting on the individual changes up or down to a player’s value, we’ve bucketed them into groupings to help categorize why they’ve moved up or down so early in the season.

Injuries Significantly Affecting Dynasty Value

The largest changes to dynasty value are typically to players whose primary dynasty value is heavily weighted to their 2024 performance, usually due to the fact that they are older players in the decline phase of their career. The most obvious changes occur as a result of an injury which significantly impacts 2024 valueespecially if it also now clouds their future value. In these cases, their value plummets significantly. The players who fall into this category, unfortunately, are:

Shane Bieber
Devin Williams

Within this basket of injured players is a subset of interesting caseswhere perhaps there may be an opportunity if you are willing to take the riskwhere players who are perceived to be injury-prone get injured again or where the long-term effects of the current injury are still not known. The best examples of this are Gerrit Cole, Matt McLain or Luis Robert Jr. where it’s not yet known how long they will be sidelined with injury, and how productive they will be once they return to the field. With the benefit of retrospect in a few months, today may end up being seen as having been an incredible buying opportunity…or a catastrophic near-miss. To reflect this uncertainty, we’ve lowered the following players slightly:

Eloy Jimenez
Gerrit Cole
Luis Robert Jr.
Royce Lewis
Matt McLain
Trevor Story
Josh Lowe

Another subset of injuries are players where the injury won’t impact their long term dynasty valueeither because they will be contributors for a long time or the injury shouldn’t impact them too much in the grand scheme of things. They too were revised downward in the rankings but generally to a lesser degree. The following players fall into this category:

Spencer Strider
Eury Perez
Nathaniel Lowe
Emmet Sheehan
Tommy Edman
Oswald Peraza
Eduardo Rodriguez
Jonny DeLuca
Geraldo Perdomo

Finally, because of the nature of their injuries and where they are on the development track, we removed Daniel Espino and Nick Frasso from the list entirely.

Changes in Roles (downward)

There were some players who were expected to have a valuable role in 2024 before the season started. Early on, we’ve seen managerial tendencies that are suggesting that this may no longer be the case. The clearest examples of this are players who were presumed to be the closer for a team but who do not seem to be so anymore. For example, Alex Lange in Detroit definitely is not the primary candidatethough it’s also not clear whether it is Jason Foley or Andrew Chafin or Shelby Miller (or…)and also Joel Payamps who seems to have been supplanted by Abner Uribe in the Milwaukee bullpen pecking order.

Other players who were revised downward were players who either were (a) expected to make the major league club out of spring training but were demoted, (b) expected to have significant roles but who seem to be in danger of losing that role or having a lesser one, or (c) have not signed with a team yet. These players were lowered in the rankings accordingly and include:

Marco Luciano
Orelvis Martinez
Everson Pereira
Deyvison De Los Santos
Ben Joyce
Drew Waters
Spencer Horwitz
Edouard Julien
Alexander Kirk
Trent Grisham
Luis Rengifo
Tommy Pham
Brandon Belt

Players Who Seem To Be Hitting Their Upper Range Outcome

Now that we got a lot of the negativity out of the way, let’s move to the positive. There were a number of players who had a wide range in their potential outcomes coming into the seasoneither because they had a new role or there was murkiness surrounding how they would perform after a long layoff. To accommodate this uncertainty, we previously ranked them by their median “expected value”. So far, this year, a number of players suggest we were too conservative by looking healthy or sliding successfully into a new (more valuable) role. The players in this category and for whom we have now adjusted their ranking upward are:

Chris Sale
Garrett Crochet
Jordan Hicks
Mason Miller
Henry Davis
Taylor Ward
Yu Darvish
Tyler O’Neill
Kutter Crawford
Luis Severino
Casey Mize
Tanner Houck
Starling Marte
Jack Flaherty
Michael Conforto
Keaton Winn

Players Building Off Short-Sample Success in 2023

There were some players who showed a lot of potential in 2023 (or the second half of 2023) but this exceeded previous expectations and were therefore viewed with cautious skepticism. So far, a number of players have continued into 2024 exactly how we had optimistically hoped:

Cole Ragans
Tarik Skubal
Nick Pivetta
Bobby Miller
Spencer Steer
Jake Burger
Lane Thomas
Jarren Duran
Christopher Morel
Maikel Garcia
Cristopher Sanchez
Zack Littell
Reid Detmers

Increased Value After Spring Training

Recently, we’ve highlighted a number of players who impressed scouts in Spring Training. In some cases too, their path to production has accelerated tremendouslyeither by making the big league club out of Spring TrainingJared Jones, Jackson Merrill, Graham Pauley are clear examples of thisor who definitely seem to be much closer to promotion than previously anticipated.

Jared Jones
Paul Skenes
Jackson Merrill
Graham Pauley
Tyler Freeman
Jordan Leasure
James Wood
Chase DeLauter
George Lombard Jr.
Christian Scott
Jefferson Rojas
Jonny Famelo
Joey Loperfido
Alfredo Duno
Mike Vasil
Nelson Rada
Jeremy Rodriguez
Starlyn Caba
Caden Dana
Trevor Werner
Walker Jenkins

The final subset of players who were boosted in the rankings are those players who have been thrust into a more prominent role sooner than expected or who seem to be solidifying their standing in that role

Gavin Stone
Ben Brown
Max Meyer
Louie Varland
Brice Turang
Abner Uribe
Michael Busch
Jose Caballero

Some other updates were made to players who are on new teams since the last update:

Blake Snell, signing with the Giants.
Dylan Cease, traded to the Padres.
Drew Thorpe, traded to the White Sox.
Matt Chapman, signing with the Giants.
J.D. Davis, traded to the A’s.
Jordan Montgomery, signing with the Diamondbacks
Mike Clevinger, signing with the White Sox

Finally, there are a number of players who seem precariously close to the cliff, based on their early-season performance. We have not changed their ranking too muchbut keep an eye on them:

Max Fried
Joe Musgrove
Kris Bryant
Anthony Rendon
Giancarlo Stanton

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Fantasy Podcast: Early Reactions To MLB and MiLB Breakouts https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/fantasy-podcast-early-reactions-to-mlb-and-milb-breakouts/ https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/fantasy-podcast-early-reactions-to-mlb-and-milb-breakouts/#respond Fri, 05 Apr 2024 10:00:00 +0000 https://www.baseballamerica.com/?p=1366356 This week on the Baseball America Fantasy Podcast, Geoff Pontes and Dylan White cover some of their early regrets and reactions to the first week…

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This week on the Baseball America Fantasy Podcast, Geoff Pontes and Dylan White cover some of their early regrets and reactions to the first week of play in Major League Baseball. They call out some potential breakouts from early-season performances like Garrett Crochet and Jared Jones. The second half of the show is focused on Dylan and Geoff’s recently released Prospect Breakout Teams.

  • Intro: 0:00 – 3:00
  • Imanaga: 3:00 – 6:30
  • Crochet: 6:30 -12:00
  • Jared Jones: 12:00 – 15:00
  • Pirates future and Paul Skenes: 15:00 – 18:00
  • Eury Perez Tommy John surgery reaction: 18:00 – 22:00
  • Josh Jung injury reaction: 22:00 – 26:00
  • BREAK: 26:00
  • Logan Evans: 26:00 – 28:00
  • Kyle Carr: 28:00 – 30:00
  • Josue Briceno: 30:00 – 33:00
  • Yophery Rodriguez: 33:00 – 35:00
  • Brett Wichrowski: 35:00 -36:00
  • Aiden Smith: 36:00 – 38:00
  • Outro: 40:00

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2025 Fantasy Baseball: Predicting The First Two Rounds Of Drafts https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/2025-fantasy-baseball-predicting-the-first-two-rounds-of-drafts/ https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/2025-fantasy-baseball-predicting-the-first-two-rounds-of-drafts/#respond Tue, 02 Apr 2024 15:47:52 +0000 https://www.baseballamerica.com/?p=1362878 We offer an extensive analysis of 2025 fantasy baseball first- and second-round draft projections for 12-team roto leagues.

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There’s a method to this madness. As discussed in last year’s version of the same exercise, the idea is to play redraft with more of a “dynasty lens.” Every season, there are opportunities to hit on the most profitable draft picks by betting on young, high-end talents.

Consider Corbin Carroll entering 2023. He was already being drafted in the early-middle rounds due to his status as a top prospect, but it was easy to see that if he were to succeed as a rookie, “the market” would get aggressive with him the following season. It turns out that Carroll was good enough to where he became an unquestioned first-rounder in 2024.

The goal is also to avoid early-round “landmines” that could be drafted significantly later by next year for one reason or another. Perhaps a player is getting older, or there’s a significant injury concern. It’s easy to forget how early Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander were going in 2023 drafts. Age can be overcome, but declining skill sets are worth monitoring.

Of course, baseball is a hard game, and typically the best players are drafted early year after year. You’ll notice a lot of familiar names on the list below, and it’s for good reason. Spoiler alert, Mookie Betts and Yordan Alvarez will probably be pretty good this year.

Note: These ADP projections are for 12-team roto leagues.

1. Ronald Acuña, OF, Braves

Spencer Strider was drafted first overall this spring in some high-stakes drafts, and that’s coming off Acuña’s historic campaign. His March knee aggravation is a slight concern that may have tipped the scales for some, but Acuña is a safe bet to be a top-three pick again next year. Like Acuña, his lineup protection is locked in for the long run. There’s no need to overthink this one. Acuña could even lose 20 steals and a handful of homers and still warrant 1.01 next season. His .337 average, aided by a dramatic drop in his strikeout rate, was an underrated part of his MVP season in 2023. Monitoring that area is arguably more important than his stolen-base rate this season.

2. Julio Rodríguez, OF, Mariners

One could go in a few directions with the second overall choice, making this a matter of personal preference. Perhaps those in five-outfielder leagues prefer Rodriguez and Tatis over Witt. Regardless, all three players represent power-speed combos that are building blocks of any fantasy squad.

3. Bobby Witt Jr., SS, Royals

Given his combination of elite sprint speed on a team with nothing to lose, it remains fascinating to think about Witt’s stolen-base ceiling. He already made history in his sophomore campaign from a HR-SB outlook. A 30-45 season feels like the floor this time around, with the upside for more.

4. Fernando Tatis Jr., OF, Padres

Here’s our first “tier jump” from 2023 drafts, as Tatis went as the No. 8 overall player in the final week of NFBC Main Event drafts.

It’s easy to compare him to this year’s Acuña—a former superstar who looked like he was shaking off the rust after a long layoff, only to bounce back in a monstrous way the following season.

Tatis’ max exit velocity was 113.4 mph in 2023. Within a few days of the 2024 season, he’s already hit two balls topping that, including a new career-high of 116.7 mph. Insert John Wick voice: “Yeah, I’m thinking I’m back!”

5. Shohei Ohtani, UTIL/SP, Dodgers

It’s hard to predict that the Dodgers’ lineup will be as historically great as the Braves’ last year. They have the talent to do it, but Atlanta remained healthy and was deep 1-9, while getting possible career years from multiple superstars.

That said, the Dodgers’ top three in their lineup are special, and Ohtani is uniquely positioned to pile up counting stats while hitting between Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman. Add in the return of starting pitching eligibility, and it’s hard to imagine baseball’s best player being drafted outside the top five. 

6. Mookie Betts, 2B/SS, Dodgers

The Dodgers’ lineup provides such a boost to Betts’ run production. It’s funny to project him as having dual middle infield eligibility without OF, but that seems to be the direction we’re headed in. The market will properly value that when it comes to a future Hall of Fame hitter with a 100th-percentile supporting cast.

7. Spencer Strider, SP, Braves

If Strider reaches his true ceiling this year, and if there are no other contenders for the title of “No. 1 SP in fantasy”, then we could once again see drafts where he’s taken first overall. This projection hedges a bit, with half a dozen hitters selected before him, but with the SP2 lasting until the middle of Round 2.

For those who need the reminder, Strider’s 2023 swinging strike rate was the highest recorded in MLB history.

8. Corbin Carroll, OF, D-Backs

Carroll’s power production fell just enough after last summer’s shoulder scare to keep fantasy managers on edge this spring. The stolen base and runs scored projections kept his ADP firmly in Round 1, but we’re now facing another season where the market is questioning his power potential. If Carroll once again looks like the hitter we saw in the first half of 2023, he could squeeze into the top five next spring.

9. Kyle Tucker, OF, Astros

Fantasy managers love their stability, and the next two names on this list are as “safe” of back-end, Round 1 commodities as there are. Tucker’s fantasy valuation will be interesting to track if and when he leaves Houston, but he’s under contract through 2025, which means at least one more year of hitting alongside Jose Altuve and Yordan Alvarez. Note Alex Bregman is currently in a walk year.

10. Freddie Freeman, 1B, Dodgers

Freeman is such an interesting first-round player to build around. He’s an aging hitter yet to show signs of slowing down. He has an elite supporting cast. He’s a first baseman without top-end power, but he’ll contribute more steals than others at his position, and it comes with an elite batting average.

Expect the average to be his calling card in 2025. With another year of league-wide stolen base madness, one can predict that batting average cements itself as the scarcest rotisserie category. Longtime roto players know it’s incredibly difficult to find good batting averages on the wire in-season.

11. Juan Soto, OF, Yankees

The next four players on our list are four-category monsters who become too good to pass up around the 1/2 turn. Not only are these hitters supremely reliable, but each has enough upside to sneak in a top-five overall finish in any given year.

Perhaps that’ll be 2024 for Soto, who is in a walk year and should be expected to maximize plate appearances. He’ll be eager to take advantage of the short porch at Yankee Stadium, and there’s no limit on what his counting stats could look like hitting in front of Judge.

12. Matt Olson, 1B, Braves

It’s tempting to fade Olson’s ridiculous combination of power and run production for speed or an ace, but drafters can pair him with either of those profiles around the 1/2 turn. It’s also worth noting that Atlanta doesn’t subscribe to modern-day “load management.” When healthy, their stars are in the lineup, and Olson has played 162 games in back-to-back seasons.

13. Yordan Alvarez, OF, Astros

Any manager beginning a 2025 draft with Olson/Alvarez will be set with runs, homers, RBIs and (mostly) batting average for a while.

Interestingly, Alvarez has never hit more than 37 homers in a season and has been held under 100 RBIs in the past two years. Still just 26 years old, his Statcast page presents enough upside for him to finally have that dominant campaign in any of the next few seasons.

14. Aaron Judge, OF, Yankees

Judge was mispriced for the entire offseason when comparing projections to ADP. Personally, I was willing to reach on him for the upside of his 2022 MVP campaign. Judge missed time last season, but when healthy, he hit similarly enough to ‘22 for me to remain aggressive with him.

This spring, he announced the turf toe injury would be an issue for the rest of his career. He then dealt with some mysterious abdominal issues that required testing and, at one point, put Opening Day in jeopardy. If he misses more time in 2024, the market will push him down further. Conversely, Soto remaining in New York for 2025 could help keep his ADP afloat.

15. Michael Harris, OF, Braves

Many will view Harris as nothing more than a 20/20 player who hits in a great lineup, though he’s always in the bottom half of the order with everyone healthy. However, he’s already more than that entering 2024 as someone who has hit above .290 in his first two seasons.

A strong batting average with power and speed is a rare player in our fake baseball game. Further skill improvement (for the homers and steals) and/or moving up in the lineup could mean Harris is drafted even closer to the wheel at this time next year.

16. Bryce Harper, 1B, Phillies

Harper was once a low/mid batting average hitter with elite OBP skills. He’s now a batting average anchor. Locked in at first base moving forward, he’s similar to Freeman in that he’ll also supply steals without Olson-esque power. The supporting cast should remain strong in 2025, cementing Harper’s status as a safe, top-20 bat with upside.

17. George Kirby, SP, Mariners

Kirby absolutely popped in projection systems entering 2024, fueled in particular by microscopic WHIP expectations. This leads to many viewing him as a “safe” starting pitcher option, which he is.

However, there’s also some hidden upside for Kirby. A midseason arsenal change spiked his strikeout rate from 20.8% in the first half of 2023 to 25.2% afterward. Can the 26-year-old continue providing elite ratios while pitching in a favorable home park, but with more Ks? It seems very possible. Kirby’s swinging strike rate improvements back up the K% gains from last summer:

18. Austin Riley, 3B, Braves

It’s incredible how many great early-round bats there are to fill out the first two rounds of next year’s draft. Riley isn’t particularly noteworthy other than he’s a great hitter in a great lineup whose team plays him all the time. He has missed just eight games over the past three seasons, and the market will once again appreciate his consistency.

19. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 1B, Blue Jays

This projection is a bit of a hedge as to whether Guerrero rediscovers his 2021 form this season. The most likely outcome is that he splits the difference between ‘21 and ‘23, which is his 2022. Perhaps that’s a letdown to those who are chasing unanimous MVP production, but it still makes for a reliable, four-category stud. Of course, the upside for more remains present, as he just turned 25 this March.

20. CJ Abrams, SS, Nationals

Robert Orr of Baseball Prospectus already wrote this offseason’s definitive Abrams piece, referring to him as a slugger inside a speedster’s body. There are questions about Abrams’ real-life abilities as a hitter, just like with Witt and Harris before him, but if he holds his own, the homers and steals will come in bunches. Of course, there’s an upside for more with a player entering his age-23 season.

21. Corey Seager, SS, Rangers

.330 batting averages don’t grow on trees. In 2023, Seager parlayed a BABIP bounceback with the new shift restrictions to deliver a historically great year. Health will always be a question with him, but Seager’s batting average contributions will be highly sought after next spring as long as he doesn’t miss significant time this season.

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22. Zack Wheeler, SP, Phillies

There are still some hitters in play who could sneak into the end of Round 2, but durable (and good) pitching should once again be at a premium this season. Wheeler differs from the next two names in that he’s much older, and perhaps Gerrit Cole’s recent elbow injury will scare drafters away. Conversely, Wheeler is at least “built up”, and starting pitchers are balloons.

Strider is the favorite to win the National League Cy Young award, but Wheeler is an exciting pivot who should hold his value entering 2025.

23. Grayson Rodriguez, SP, Orioles
24. Bobby Miller, SP, Dodgers

Like Rodriguez, Miller improved throughout his rookie season and is already off to a dominating start in 2024. He combines hellacious stuff with an organization likely to maximize his skill set. Traditional scouting, advanced stats and Stuff+ models agree here. Miller has it all in what could be a breakout campaign.

Honorable Mentions

  • Trea Turner, SS, Phillies
  • Jose Ramírez, 3B, Guardians
  • Rafael Devers, 3B, Red Sox
  • Elly De La Cruz, SS, Reds
  • Gunnar Henderson, SS, Orioles
  • Tarik Skubal, SP, Tigers
  • Corbin Burnes, SP, Orioles
  • Oneil Cruz, SS, Pirates

Players Falling Out Of The First Two Rounds Of 2024

  • Turner (11.6 ADP)
  • Ramírez (16.1 ADP)
  • Burnes (16.5 ADP)
  • Luis Castillo (21.5 ADP)
  • Pablo Lopez (25.9 ADP)

Final Thoughts

By looking ahead to 2025, we’re forecasting the story of 2024. In this case, the fantasy community primarily targets elite bats in the top-24 picks. A few select arms will be taken early, followed by flattening the SP5-15 range. Burnes, Castillo and Lopez could fall victim to this.

Injuries and down years will strike, but as of now, even more honorable mentions could’ve been listed.

Turner and Jo-Ram remain reliable stars who will be on the wrong side of 30, but the market typically likes to reach for upside in the second round, especially in early drafts with an overall component.

Devers falls victim to Vlad Jr. syndrome, where drafters get tired of waiting for another level.

If Elly De La Cruz hits his 90th percentile outcome this year, he will go in Round 1. Even if he falters somewhat, the market will likely remain interested at a “discount” in 2025. The homers and steals should be there, but it remains to be seen how streaky he’ll be and whether some lingering questions remain about his game. This projection has his ADP “stabilizing” somewhere in Rounds 3-4.

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Fantasy Baseball Draft Strategy: Applying Redraft Strategy And More https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/fantasy-baseball-draft-strategy-applying-redraft-strategy-and-more/ https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/fantasy-baseball-draft-strategy-applying-redraft-strategy-and-more/#respond Wed, 27 Mar 2024 17:05:08 +0000 https://www.baseballamerica.com/?p=1360831 In Part 1, I discussed my high-level observations of the positional landscape when planning out my Draft Champions draft. In this article, I will provide…

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In Part 1, I discussed my high-level observations of the positional landscape when planning out my Draft Champions draft. In this article, I will provide a firsthand account of how I applied the redraft strategy with the NFBC “Super” draft that I participated in last week (prior to the big “Main Event Weekend” in Las Vegas), drafting online with Jordan Rosenblum (whose byline includes fangraphs, Prospects Live and Scout the Statline in between providing back-end support for Eno Sarris’s Stuff+ driven pitching projections). A “Super” is identical to a Main Event but without the additional chance to win the Overall, meaning that the prize for winning the individual (15 team) league is larger: the entry fee for a Super is $2500 with a $20K prize for 1st place, whereas the entry fee is $1750 for Main Events with a $7K prize for 1st place but with a chance to win $200K in the Overall.

The fact that there is no “overall” component does not significantly impact strategy too much, but it does mean that having “balance” across all scoring categories is no longer a “prime directive” of the draft, as you can still win a league while being mediocre in some categories. For this reason, targeting two closers before the 8th round no longer was a priority when determining our draft plan. This, coupled with the additional uncertainty surrounding the health status of Jhoan Duran and Jordan Romano, the way that the draft room would address the closers was unclear. Would they push them up because of the new scarcity at the top or would they wait to gauge how the “room” was reacting? Our pre-draft strategy was the latter—to wait, tentatively planning to take our first closer in the 7th round—where potentially Tanner Scott or Clay Homes may be (or perhaps Jhoan Duran)—and then pencil in Jose Alvarado, Robert Suarez (who got a Save in Korea already), or Mason Miller in the 11th round as our second closer.

We were drafting out of the 6th slot—so that meant we could immediately cross off Ronald Acuna Jr, Spencer Strider, and Bobby Witt Jr. from the list of players we could potentially draft with our first pick. That essentially left us to choose between Julio Rodriguez, Mookie Betts—though they were probably going to get taken before us—Fernando Tatis Jr., and Kyle Tucker as the options we were most interested in. For us, it was a coin flip and we ended up taking Tatis (as Betts and Rodriguez were taken before our pick). But I’ll get to that later. For now, let’s dive into “the plan.”

Penciling In The Details Of The (Pre-Draft) Plan

The way I like to plan out a draft is to determine valuations for the player pool—fangraphs’s auction calculator is a good place to start—and compare these values with ADP to get a feel for how the market seems to be valuing (1) stolen bases, (2) closers, (3) catchers, (4) positional flexibility and (5) rookies. Every year, it seems like “the crowd” has been mapping projection valuations with ADP more and more closely, with most discrepancies primarily being for players considered to be injury risk (and not being expected to meet their full-season projection) or players who could potentially have a huge breakout to the upside that projections aren’t capturing (which often includes rookies or second-half performers from the previous year…or hot spring training performances). Some players falling in the former category are (perennially) Byron Buxton, Eloy Jimenez, Giancarlo Stanton and Chris Sale. Players who the market likes better than their projection are trendy breakouts like Cole Ragans, Bobby Miller, Jackson Holliday and Nick Pivetta.

The trick, of course, to a successful draft is to maximize being right, minimize being wrong and executing on these decisions in as cost-effective a manner as possible. By this last point, I mean if you think that Ryan Weathers, as the Marlins fourth starter, will pitch at the same effectiveness as the pitchers available in the 10th round, but the market isn’t taking him until the 20th round, you are not optimizing by drafting him in the 10th round…but you also need to be careful to ensure you get him before someone else does. So…17th?

I tend to start from the “bottom” of the draft and see if there are any values that stick out—and, this is important, that I would be comfortable drafting. For this draft, we liked Brendan Rodgers as a second baseman who seemed to be going in the 22nd round, but who, if he met his projection, should be more of a 10th-round pick. We also liked a group of first basemen who all seemed to be being taken in the 19th round: Josh Bell, Jose Abreu, Nathaniel Lowe and Ty France. We assumed that we would get one of the first basemen who we would put at “corner infield” and we wanted to use Rodgers at “middle infield.”

Other targets we wanted were Alex Cobb, who was projected to be an 11th round–type pitcher but, likely because of the uncertainty surrounding his health, was not being taken until the 23rd round. Because of some favorable injury reports, we wanted to take him somewhere in the 20th round as our 9th pitcher (of 9).

Another interesting circumstance was that Yoan Moncada and Anthony Rendon—third basemen who are expected to play full-time and hit near the top of the lineup—were being faded until the 23rd round (or later) by the market who seemed rightly concerned that either would come anywhere close to what projections were foreseeing (13th to 16th-round value). We felt that it would be worth a gamble—and our hedge would be by targeting Luis Rengifo in the 17th round, a utility bat with third-base eligibility, and who would be the most likely to gain from an injury to Rendon.

As mentioned in Part 1, there was a nice pocket of potential shortstops in the 12th round of Trevor Story, Ezequiel Tovar, or Willy Adames—and we felt that we would select one of them as our shortstop. We also liked Zach Neto in the 16th round as a target.

In the 14th round, there was a pocket of outfielders whose projections all seemed to be solid for the draft round: Starling Marte, Tyler O’Neill, Daulton Varsho, Taylor Ward and potentially Brandon Nimmo and Masataka Yoshida (who potentially would make it to us too).

There is a reiterative element to all of this, where one has to make sure the targets in aggregate make sense together too. For example, it wouldn’t make sense to build around a collection of hitters with big power, poor batting average and no speed. So far, the collection of players looks okay, with potentially only a few of the options having double-digit stolen bases. More on that later.

One thing to note is that the obvious risk to this type of planning is that the other managers in your league may also be following a similar approach and targeting the same players as you in the same round. To mitigate this risk, it is helpful to target “pockets” where there are multiple simultaneous options who should be available. As mentioned, we like a handful of outfielders who “should” be available in the 14th round. Luckily, if our primary target is selected, there should be other options available that would help us stick to our plan. The same approach holds true for first base (in the 19th round) and shortstop in the 12th round, with several options fitting our planned build.

For the six picks in the 2nd through 7th rounds—after we select our outfielder in the 1st round—following the advice from Part 1, we felt that we should take four to five pitchers, leaving us one or two hitters in these early rounds. Also from Part 1, we felt drawn to the potential first-base targets of Josh Naylor or Yandy Diaz in the 8th and 9th, or Vinnie Pasquantino and Rhys Hoskins in the 13th. We decided to target Pasquantino in the 13th, betting that he will be fully healed from his shoulder surgery, and would provide above-average batting average with 20+ home runs.

Now that we’ve locked in two first basemen (Pasquantino in the 13th and one of the options we mentioned in the 19th) and likely Anthony Rendon and (hopefully) Luis Rengifo in the 23rd and 17th rounds, we were “set” at corner infield. The plan was solidifying.

Now, when deciding on the hitters in these first few rounds, we didn’t need to consider first base or third base. By process of elimination—and by following the “multiple options available” approach—it seemed like a good pocket would be Gleyber Torres, Andres Gimenez or Ketel Marte as a second baseman option in the 6th round.

You may have noticed that I have not mentioned any players as targets who are the best options for stolen bases: Esteury Ruiz, CJ Abrams, Nico Hoerner, Bryson Stott and Ha-Seong Kim. This is not because we are planning on punting stolen bases—though that might be a reasonable strategy in a “Super”—but really it was because these players were all being drafted in rounds earlier than we would feel comfortable taking them. To counteract the fact that we would likely not be leaving the draft with any of these players, we made a conscious effort, in choosing between various options, to lean toward the player who would likely steal more bases. In other words, for our expected roster build, we would prefer Gimenez over Torres, Story as the top shortstop option and probably Tyler O’Neill or Starling Marte over Taylor Ward or Masataka Yoshida. For this reason, we also decided to target Cedric Mullins in the 10th round and his potential 30 stolen bases as our second outfielder.

To help with the decision on whether we take a third hitter in the first seven rounds, we looked at catcher. In the 9th round, Willson Contreras or Salvador Perez are usually available, and if not, Gabriel Moreno, Logan O’Hoppe, Cal Raleigh, Francisco Alvarez and Sean Murphy are also options. We wanted to make sure we had power, runs and RBIs (meaning plate appearances), but hopefully without harming our batting average. We, therefore, narrowed it down to Contreras, Perez, or if they were gone, selecting O’Hoppe or Murphy. Ultimately, we decided to target William Contreras, J.T. Realmuto (or Will Smith) in the 5th round as our first catcher (to pair with our 9th-round catcher). Not having to (hopefully) worry about catcher is an undersold experience. 

Now, because rounds 9 and 10 (and 12, 13 and 14) were likely going to be hitters, we planned on taking a pitcher in the 8th round.

I understand that the above—especially to a reader who is not as intimately familiar with current ADP—is a lot to hold in, let alone follow. So here is what all of the above looks like as a pre-draft plan:

1st rdOF1: Julio Rodriguez, Mookie Betts, Fernando Tatis Jr., Kyle Tucker
2nd rdSP1
3rd rdSP2
4th rdSP3
5th rdC1: William Contreras, J.T. Realmuto, Will Smith
6th rd2B: Andres Gimenez, Gleyber Torres, Ketel Marte
7th rdRP1: Evan Phillips, Clay Holmes, Tanner Scott, Jhoan Duran(?)
8th rdSP4?: Carlos Rodon, Sonny Gray
9th rdC2: William Contreras, Salvador Perez, Logan O’Hoppe, Sean Murphy
10th rdOF2: Cedric Mullins
11th rdRP2: Mason Miller. Jose Alvarado, Robert Suarez
12th rdSS: Trevor Story, Ezequiel Tovar, Willy Adames
13th rd1B: Vinnie Pasquantino
14th rdOF3: Tyler O’Neill, Taylor Ward, Starling Marte, Daulton Varsho
15th rd
16th rdSS (MI): Zach Neto
17th rd3B (OF4): Luis Rengifo
18th rd
19th rd1B (CI): Josh Bell, Jose Abreu, Ty France, Nathaniel Lowe
20th rd
21st rdUT:: Brendan Rodgers (if we get Neto) or an SP6
22nd rd3B (or UT): Yoan Moncada, Anthony Rendon
23rd rdSP7: Alex Cobb

Now, a shape is starting to form. We can see that we still will need two starting pitchers and two outfielders. In the 15th, 18th and 20th rounds, there were some reasonable options from which we could choose and so we felt okay.

The Actual Draft

As mentioned, we got Tatis in the first round and with everyone but Strider and Zack Wheeler gone, we chose Pablo Lopez as our SP1.

As our third pick was approaching, it looked like Edwin Diaz—our top Closer target, but whom we could not expect to be available to us in the 3rd—might fall to us at pick No. 36. The quick repercussions were that if we chose to take him, then we wouldn’t need to use the 7th round for a closer. Looking at available (starting pitching) options in the 7th, we saw Shane Bieber likely available. The quick calculation was whether we would prefer the pair of Edwin Diaz and Shane Bieber to the pair of…Luis Castillo (or Skubal or Yamamoto) with Clay Holmes (or Tanner Scott or Evan Phillips). We decided and selected Edwin Diaz, our first pivot of the draft.

In the 4th, we took Framber Valdez as our second starting pitcher. In the 5th, our catcher options were J.T. Realmuto, William Contreras and Will Smith (as only Adley Rutschman had been selected by that point) and we chose J.T. Realmuto as he, amongst other things, could steal 15 bases.

By getting Realmuto’s stolen bases, we chose Gleyber Torres over Andres Gimenez in the 6th round, for what we believe will be better batting average and power.

And, just as we had planned with the Edwin Diaz pick, we took Shane Bieber in the 7th. There had been a bit of a closer run in the 5th and in the 6th, and the closer options we could have had were Ryan Helsley and Tanner Scott. We will see if Diaz/Bieber ends up being a better pairing than Castillo/Helsley, but we were satisfied with how it turned out.

As our 8th-round pitcher, we chose Carlos Rodon. His velocity fluctuations in spring training have been a roller coaster ride, but we are betting on/hoping for the upside.

The 9th round was earmarked for our second catcher, and after Contreras was taken three picks before us, we chose Salvador Perez. The 10th and 11th rounds went to plan with Cedric Mullins and Mason Miller (as Alvarado and Suarez were taken).

The 12th and 13th round plan was shortstop (Trevor Story or Ezequiel Tovar) and then first base (Vinnie Pasquantino…or Rhys Hoskins), but our first forced pivot occurred. In the three picks leading up to our 12th-round pick, both Story and Tovar were taken. The easiest solution would be to take Willy Adames (our third option), but we were reluctant because this would likely be too damaging to our batting average. We decided to take Jeremy Pena instead, but to ensure we didn’t get sniped on Pasquantino, chose Pasquantino first (a round earlier than ADP) and then Jeremy Pena in the 13th. All in all, a plan B that didn’t diverge us too much from the overall roster-build strategy.

In the 14th round, the plan was our third outfielder. Again, because we took JTR as our catcher, we didn’t have to lean toward the stolen-base option, and started keeping an eye on our batting average. Just before our pick, Marte and Varsho were taken, and so we chose Taylor Ward over Tyler O’Neill, as we expected a better batting average.

The 15th round was always a floater round where we could go with a starting pitcher (Kenta Maeda, Yusei Kikuchi, Louie Varland and Luis Severino were potential options), relief pitcher spec or another outfielder. Unexpectedly, when it came back to us in the 15th round, Tyler O’Neill was available. We decided to go with O’Neill as our OF4, with a plan now to use the 18th round to take our fifth starting pitcher (e.g. Garrett Whitlock, Sean Manaea or Jordan Hicks) and our sixth starting pitcher in the 20th (Steven Matz or Erick Fedde).

Our second forced pivot happened while waiting to make our 16th-round pick of Zach Neto when he was grabbed in the late 15th. The domino effect was that (1) we could take a pitcher in the 16th instead of the 18th if the options were better and (2) Brendan Rodgers in the 21st would now be our MI instead of UT (without Neto on the roster), giving us a bit more flexibility on who would be our UT hitter. Both Yusei Kikuchi and Kenta Maeda—who were potential 15th-round targets—were both available to us in the 16th. We chose Kikuchi over Maeda (as we felt that adding Maeda to Bieber and Rodon was a bit more risk than we wanted to take).

The 17th round remained on plan by taking Luis Rengifo. For the 18th, we were considering Nick Lodolo, Garrett Whitlock and DL Hall, but Hall got taken just before our pick—but with getting Kikuchi in the 15th, we took Kris Bryant as our fifth outfielder (and who should gain first base eligibility early on in the season) to help with our batting average, and then Ty France in the 19th as the first baseman with the likeliest highest batting average amongst the options.

In the 20th round, we selected our second-to-last starting pitcher, Erick Fedde. The reigning KBO MVP remade himself overseas, gaining velocity and a new pitch, and we are gambling that his success will carry over to his MLB return.

The 21st and 22nd-round prophecies were fulfilled with Brendan Rodgers and Alex Cobb, the latter of whom will begin the season on the Injured List, but hopefully for less time than the 30 days that pessimistic estimates expect. For that reason, we focused our bench rounds on a pitcher to fill in for Cobb (Miles Mikolas in the 26th and Jakob Junis in the 28th) and some relief pitcher options to help pick up some saves in case Mason Miller falls short (Jeff Hoffman in the 27th, Chad Green in the 30th). We also took Andrew Benintendi (24th) and stashed Tommy Edman’s 2B, SS and OF eligibility in the 23rd. And, as prophesied, to pair with Rengifo, we selected the mercurial Anthony Rendon in the 25th.

All in all, because of the detailed planning, the draft went relatively smoothly with few required pivots or snipes. See below for how close we were to expectations.

RoundThe PlanThe Execution
1st rdOF1: Julio Rodriguez, Mookie Betts, Fernando Tatis Jr., Kyle TuckerOF1: Fernando Tatis Jr.
2nd rdSP1SP1: Pablo Lopez
3rd rdSP2RP1: Edwin Diaz
4th rdSP3SP2: Framber Valdez
5th rdC1: William Contreras, J.T. Realmuto, Will SmithC1: J.T. Realmuto
6th rd2B: Andres Gimenez, Gleyber Torres, Ketel Marte2B: Gleyber Torres
7th rdRP1: Evan Phillips, Clay Holmes, Tanner Scott, Jhoan DuranSP3: Shane Bieber
8th rdSP4: Carlos Rodon, Shane Bieber, Justin SteeleSP4: Carlos Rodon
9th rdC2: William Contreras, Salvador Perez, Logan O’Hoppe, Sean MurphyC2: Salvador Perez
10th rdOF2: Cedric MullinsOF2: Cedric Mullins
11th rdRP2: Mason Miller. Jose Alvarado, Robert SuarezRP2: Mason Miller
12th rdSS: Trevor Story, Ezequiel Tovar, Willy Adames1B: Vinnie Pasquantino
13th rd1B: Vinnie PasquantinoSS: Jeremy Pena
14th rdOF3: Tyler O’Neill, Taylor Ward, Starling Marte, Daulton VarshoOF3: Taylor Ward
15th rdOF4: Tyler O’Neill
16th rdSS (MI): Zach NetoSP5: Yusei Kikuchi
17th rd3B (OF4): Luis Rengifo3B: Luis Rengifo
18th rdOF5: Kris Bryant
19th rd1B (CI): Josh Bell, Jose Abreu, Ty France, Nathaniel Lowe1B (CI): Ty France
20th rdSP6: Erick Fedde
21st rdUT:: Brendan Rodgers (if we get Neto) or an SP62B (UT): Brendan Rodgers
22nd rd3B (or UT): Yoan Moncada, Anthony RendonSP7: Alex Cobb
23rd rdSP7: Alex CobbBench: Tommy Edman

In retrospect, because Alex Cobb is starting the season on the IL (and potentially Junis too) and Mikolas has a tough matchup against the Dodgers, perhaps we should have taken a “week 1” starting pitcher instead of Edman. Also, we may be chasing saves all season—but hopefully we should be able to stay in the middle of the pack. Finally, we do have some wide variance on our starting pitching, but hope that our hitting depth (and positional flexibility) should allow us to focus on our pitching week to week.

One final note, in case one planned on following a similar approach in any final drafts in the days leading up to Opening Day, is that the market is catching up and seemingly taking on a similar draft approach as the above. For Main Events that were drafted over the weekend (in the days immediately following our Super), Shane Bieber is now being taken in the 5th round, Carlos Rodon in the 7th, Trevor Story in the 9th (up from the 12th) and Vinnie Pasquantino is being taken in the 11th (up from the 13th). In other words, the market is filling in these inefficiency gaps that have been there in the previous three weeks.

As always, one has to stay nimble—knowing that original targets may no longer be feasible options and new value targets may emerge—as draft trends shift. That’s the beauty (and anxiety) of fantasy drafts. And next, the in-season work begins.

The post Fantasy Baseball Draft Strategy: Applying Redraft Strategy And More appeared first on College Baseball, MLB Draft, Prospects - Baseball America.

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Fantasy Podcast: 2024 Breakout Player Draft https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/fantasy-podcast-2024-breakout-player-draft/ https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/fantasy-podcast-2024-breakout-player-draft/#respond Wed, 27 Mar 2024 13:02:07 +0000 https://www.baseballamerica.com/?p=1360830 With Opening Day just one day away, hosts Dylan White and Geoff Pontes pick 12 players they believe will break out in 2024 and be…

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With Opening Day just one day away, hosts Dylan White and Geoff Pontes pick 12 players they believe will break out in 2024 and be drafted within the first 100 picks in re-draft next season. Lots of exciting names are covered with explanations for why we believe these players will move up rankings in 2024.

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Logan Evans Looks Like Mariners’ Latest Pitching Find https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/logan-evans-looks-like-mariners-latest-pitching-find/ https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/logan-evans-looks-like-mariners-latest-pitching-find/#respond Tue, 26 Mar 2024 12:14:36 +0000 https://www.baseballamerica.com/?p=1360597 The Mariners look to have done it again, as 12th-round pick Logan Evans has turned into a high-velocity starter.

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The first time you watch Logan Evans, the dissonance between who he is now and what he’s always been seems hard to explain.

Evans was a 12th-round pick of the Mariners in 2023 as a fourth-year junior out of Pittsburgh. Considering his college career, the fact that he was even picked seems to be an impressive find by area scout Jackson Laumann and the Mariners’ scouting department.

In college, Evans struggled. Over his four years at Penn State and Pittsburgh, the righthander allowed 8.35 runs per nine innings while giving up 174 hits in 138 innings. While his draft year was better, a 5-3, 5.88 season with 55 hits allowed in 49 innings didn’t seem to indicate that greatness was right around the corner.

But that’s what’s been happening during Mariners’ spring training. Evans is one of the surprise standouts of the back fields in Arizona. The righty has shown increased stuff to go with his feel for pitching.

Evans went 1-0, 0.60 in 15 innings with a 15-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio between the Arizona Complex and California League last season after signing. Evan that was a level of dominance he’d never shown in college. But that was before he added three to four mph to his repertoire.

Much like George Kirby, who went from sitting in the low 90s in college to the high 90s as a front-of-the-rotation ace, Evans has seen everything he throws get crisper as a Mariner. Last year he sat at 92 mph with Pitt. Now he sits at 95-97 mph and has touched 99.

Evans is quickly showing that he’s turning into one of the Mariners’ best pitching prospects. Seattle has produced a number of quality pitchers in recent years. At the moment, the Mariners’ system is very heavy with position players. Evans’ surge is a healthy development for the organization.

“I definitely made a velo jump for sure. I hope to hit 100 (mph) soon,” Evans said. “The organization is perfect. They don’t preach too much about mechanics. It’s go out there and throw hard, and then throw a sweeper.”

The sweeper is the other big change to Evans’ arsenal. It has more horizontal movement than the slider he threw in college. He’s also now supplementing it with a bigger curveball.

“I’m definitely taking the next steps to have my slider really go east to west but have my curveball feel out of my hand like a 12-to-6 (pitch). I’m always going to have arm-side run because of my slot, but I’m trying to get depth on my curveball to give them two different looks,” Evans said.

Evans is now a six-pitch pitcher. He seems to have a way to get to every part of the strike zone.

“I like to use my fastball and my sweeper. Having two different fastballs, a cutter, a sweeper, a curveball and a changeup never hurts,” Evans said. “I like to put myself in the box, like if I was trying to hit. If a pitcher has six pitches, I probably won’t have a lot of success. The key is just trying to control all of them.”

That control is what got him in trouble in the rescheduled Mariners-Padres spring breakout game. Evans started for the Mariners, which is a sign of how quickly he’s blossomed.

He had an impressive first inning of work. After hitting a batter to start the game, he recorded three straight strikeouts. But he gave up a home run and walked three batters in an ugly second inning, leaving after recording two outs. An error didn’t help, and did explain why only two of the six runs he allowed were earned.

It was a blip in what’s been an impressive spring, and one that makes Evans a pitcher to watch closely once the MiLB regular season begins,.

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Fantasy Baseball Draft Strategy: Target Certain Positions In Redraft Leagues https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/fantasy-baseball-draft-strategy-target-certain-positions-in-redraft-leagues/ https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/fantasy-baseball-draft-strategy-target-certain-positions-in-redraft-leagues/#respond Thu, 21 Mar 2024 15:31:24 +0000 https://www.baseballamerica.com/?p=1359955 Dylan White dishes on his fantasy baseball draft strategy for redraft leagues in 2024, including how to assess various positions.

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After my first foray into the NFBC high stakes redraft leagues last year met with success, I felt emboldened to join my first NFBC Draft Champions (Draft & Hold) league this upcoming season. The format is quite similar to NFBC Main Event leagues (and TGFBI) but without the weekly FAAB component. In other words, it’s a standard 5×5 roto league (batting average and saves) with 14 hitters (2 C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, 5 OF, MI, CI, UT) and 9 pitchers.

The hitting lineups can be set for Monday-to-Thursday and then Friday-to-Sunday, whereas pitching lineups are set for the entire (Monday-to-Sunday) week. To round out your rosterand to provide substitution options for the lineupsthe roster also has 27 bench slots (which can be allocated amongst the positions in any combination you wish). Once the 15 fantasy managers in the league have completed drafting their 50 players, those are the only 750 players that can generate statistics in the league. There are no further in-season pickups.

Fantasy Baseball 2024

Find all of our rankings, mock drafts, analysis & more in one place.

Compared to Main Events, the Draft Champions are usually slow drafts that happen across multiple days and have a lower entry fee (and prizes). The inability to make in-season pickups from the waiver wire is the biggest difference between the two league formats. Because there is no opportunity to grab the latest promoted prospect, newly anointed closer, or simple replacement for an injured player, one needs to account for all of these foreseeable scenarios when selecting the 27 players for your bench.

In other words, not only do you want to have a solid idea of which prospects are most likely to get 2024 playing time (and provide meaningful value), but who might become a closer, or which players may become full time contributors.

This is the first installment of a multi-part series. My goal is to discuss some of the observations I made looking at the positional landscape while planning my draft. In part two of this article series, I will look at some interesting prospects of note and other “late-round” options at each position. Although I will be providing some first-hand comments about the one league that I participated in, I will also discuss the Average Draft Position (ADP) from across multiple leagues some trends I noticed there.

Positional Landscape

When preparing for a draft, I like to look at the entire positional landscape compared to the “market” to see where the “pockets” and “cliffs” might be. For example, if a player seems to project well but isn’t going in a representative round, perhaps one can wait on that position and target that player.

Here are some of my observations from this planningwith notes about how I put it into practice in the draft. Note that the “round” shown in parentheses is based on ADP and should be reasonably accurate in most cases.  One word of warning: please remember that the risk in waiting on a player because he is a “value” is that another fantasy manager has the same plan as you, grabs this same target before you can, and leaves you with no good option for the position anymore because you forewent all previous options. Tread carefully.

CATCHERS

Even with 30 catchers drafted, there are quite a few solid options. In years past, there was usually a clear top tierfor example, J.T. Realmuto, Salvador Perez…or going even further back, Buster Posey. If you didn’t draft them, it was an exercise in trying to fill your roster with backstops who hurt your batting average or didn’t provide too many counting stats (or both).

This year, however, there are good, productive options throughout the draft. The No. 15 catcher on our list, Mitch Garver, is a sound option who should be getting plate appearances as a DH leading to solid production. Even though I’m usually someone who likes to draft a productive catcher early so as not to worry, this year I feel comfortable waiting on Salvador Perez in the eighth as a first option, or even having my first catcher be Gabriel Moreno, Logan O’Hoppe, or Keibert Ruiz in the 10th or 11th. Although we like Bo Naylor’s ability to steal bases more than most catchers, especially for dynasty, drafted are taking him earlier than warranted.

FIRST BASEMEN

The first basemen look to be similar to the catchers. Getting a Matt Olson, Freddie Freeman, or Bryce Harper early, although nice, doesn’t appear to be necessary. There are solid options you can find in the seventh round and later: Josh Naylor, Yandy Diaz, Triston Casas, Spencer Torkelson, and even Vinnie Pasquantino (who isn’t going until the 13th).

Focusing your early-round picks on a different position, where the options in the seventh to 12th rounds are much less desirable than those in the early rounds, is a better allocation of resources. In this case, the position that seems much more top heavy (and dries up significantly by approximately the10th round) is starting pitching. More on that later.

SHORTSTOP

Shortstop is in a similar predicament to first base. Taking Bobby Witt Jr. or Trea Turner in the first round isn’t a “mistake.” But there is a nice pocket in the 12th through 14th rounds of Trevor Story, Ezequiel Tovar, Willy Adames, Jeremy Peña, and if you’re particularly convicted, Jackson Holliday (who is shortstop eligible right now but should gain second base). Waiting until the double-digit rounds and still not having a shortstop can be terrifying and may not be for everyone, but from a “value” optimization point of view, can be rewarding.

STARTING PITCHING

There’s availability at plenty of previous positions in the middle rounds because starting pitching anchors are scarcely distributed. This was even before the potential full-season losses of Gerrit Cole and Eury Perez.

After the top 20 to 25 pitchers are selected, the remaining starting pitching options become quite thin in the sixth round and beyondright where a number of pitchers with question marks congregate: Chris Sale, Shane Bieber, Dylan Cease, and even Carlos Rodon.

Although it has not been too many years since these pitchers were throwing substantial innings with excellent ratios, there is a non-trivial chance that they do not approach anywhere close to these previous highs in 2024. For this reasonmy humble opinion is that one should focus on starting pitching in the first 5 rounds more than one might normally do, in order to avoid having to rely on these pitchers with wide variances. Couple that with the injury severity uncertainty surrounding Kevin Gausman, Kyle Bradish, Kodai Senga, and Taj Bradley – and the scarcity in the early rounds is even more evident.

As a result, I believe you should dedicate at least three of the first five rounds to starting pitching. If you include closers, four of the first six picks should be on pitching. If not, you might be scrambling in the later rounds.

CLOSERS

In the Draft Champions (and Main Events), all of the teams in the leagues are also aggregated into an overall competition. Last year, there were 795 teams (53 x 15 team leagues) across all Main Events with the prize for winning the overall being a cool $200,000. We compare the statistics for your team with the other 794 teams and derive roto standing points from your team’s ranking in each of the 10 categories: if your team had the most home runs in the league, you receive 795 points, the second-place team receives 794 points, and so on, with one point awarded to the team with the fewest home runs.

Last year, our winning team finished with 7115.5 points, an “average” score of 711.5 in each of the 10 categories. That is an average of 84th percentile in each category. The main takeaway from this is that in order to win an overall, you must have “balance” across all categories. If we “punted” saves, for example, and finished middle-of-the-pack (with, say, 400 roto points in that category), in order to have 7115.5 points (to win), one would need 6715 points (7115.5 minus 400) from the other nine categories. That’s an average of 746 pts or 94th percentile in all of the other categories in order to have won the overall. That is nearly impossibleor at the very leastextremely difficult.

So, now that we’ve established that in order to win an overall, you need balance across all categoriesaiming to finish in the 85th percentile in each. That means you need to have at least two closers. There has been some recent research in The Process by Jeffrey Zimmerman and Tanner Bell that, historically, if you don’t draft two closers by the 10th round, the likelihood of being able to accumulate sufficient saves (to hit that 85th percentile target) drops dramatically.

Chasing saves on the waiver wire (or hoping to bid on the next closer during FAAB) has not historically been a winning strategy (for the overall). The best way to put yourself in position to get sufficient saves is to use two of your first 10 picks on closers. Many other drafters seem to agree with this approach too. Per ADP, 19 presumptive closers are among the first 150 picks.

OUTFIELDERS

Regarding outfielders, drafters seem to targetand why wouldn’t they? those outfielders who have both power and speed: hitters like Randy Arozarena, Luis Robert Jr., Nolan Jones, Cody Bellinger, and (before the news broke that he’d begin the season on the IL), Josh Lowe. This makes a lot of sense. They help provide “balance” across multiple categories discussed above. But based on expected production, they are being drafted earlier than where they should go.

Based on this market premium, if you focus on early starting pitching, you will unfortunately not be able to draft these outfielders. It is not all lost though, as there are some outfield values who can help make up this ground. Some options in the 10th round or later who offer some value are Cedric Mullins, Starling Marte, Tyler O’Neill, Lourdes Gurriel, and Kris Bryant.

SECOND BASE/THIRD BASE

The final positions to discuss are second and third base. Interestingly, from a high level, there are no obvious values to target (Anthony Rendon?) or landmines (um, Anthony Rendon?) to avoid. They are generally drafted in rounds corresponding to projected value. In other words, I think if you just fill these positions where it makes the most sense for your build, you should end up in good shape.

Putting it all together, my main takeawayand what we did for our Draft Champions team (which I will share in a future article)is to focus on pitching in the early rounds, making sure to get two closers within the first 10 rounds. If you can stomach the patience, waiting until the seventh to get a first baseman and catcher(s) and the 12th for a shortstop, is the “ideal” build if you believe in the public projections.

In part two of this series, I will discuss some prospects or late round targets. You may have noticed that I didn’t discuss where to take Wyatt Langford, Jackson Chourio, Junior Caminero, Jackson Holliday, or even Paul Skenes. For my opinion on thatfor redraft leaguesstay tuned for the next installment in this series.

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