Paul Skenes Stats & Scouting Report — College Baseball, MLB Draft, Prospects

IP	9.1
ERA	0
WHIP	.64
BB/9	1.93
SO/9	18.32

Full name Paul David Skenes
Born 05/29/2002 in Fullerton, CA
Profile Ht.: 6'6" / Wt.: 235 / Bats: R / Throws: R
School Louisiana State
Drafted in the 1st round (1st overall) by the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2023 (signed for $9,200,000).

View Draft Report

School: Louisiana State Source: 4YR

Commit/Drafted: Never Drafted
Age At Draft: 21.1
BA Grade:65/High
Tools:Fastball: 70. Slider: 70. Changeup: 60. Control: 60.

Skenes put together one of the best seasons that Air Force had ever seen in 2021 as a freshman, when he hit .410/.486/.697 with 11 home runs and also posted a 2.70 ERA in 26.2 innings out of the bullpen. He followed that up with another excellent 2022 season on both sides of the ball, and announced a transfer to Louisiana State for the 2023 season, where he went from a no-doubt first round talent as a two-way player to the best college starter since Stephen Strasburg in 2009. Skenes dropped hitting and focused on pitching in Baton Rouge, while working with former Twins pitching coach Wes Johnson. In one of the most offensive college baseball environments in history, Skenes routinely shut the door on opposing offenses and was a Golden Spikes Award semi-finalist. He posted a 1.69 ERA over 19 starts and 122.2 innings, with a 45.1% strikeout rate and 4.3% walk rate. He broke LSU and the SEC’s single season strikeout record and led the nation with 209 strikeouts—51 more than the No. 2 pitcher in the country. Along with center fielder Dylan Crews, Skenes helped push LSU to a College World Series championship. After sitting 93-94 mph with his fastball in 2022, Skenes averaged more than 98 mph in 2023 and has touched 103 mph at peak velocity. He also changed the shape of his mid-80s slider, going from a short-breaking pitch to one with sweeper action with 11 inches of horizontal movement. Both pitches are 70-grade offerings, with a 31% miss rate on the fastball and a 65% miss rate on the slider. Skenes hasn’t thrown it much, but his upper-80s changeup also has plus potential. He’s an efficient mover on the mound and has a clean, easy delivery with plus control and a workhorse, 6-foot-6, 247-pound frame that allows him to hold upper-90s velocity deep into starts. Skenes has legitimate front-of-the-rotation, ace upside and is also one of the most big league-ready prospects in the class. He has a chance to go first overall.

Top Rankings

Organization Prospect Rankings

BA Grade: 65/High

Track Record: For two seasons at Air Force, Skenes was a talented two-way prospect with upside on the mound and in the batter’s box. He also spent summers in the Cape Cod League and with USA Baseball’s Collegiate National Team. He transferred to Louisiana State before the 2023 season, ditched the lumber and entered his draft year as one of the best pitchers in his class. Five months later, he had helped lead LSU to a College World Series championship while cementing himself as the best arm on the board and one of a handful of serious candidates--along with LSU teammate Dylan Crews--to go No. 1 overall. The Pirates called Skenes’ name first on draft day, then signed him for a draft-record $9.2 million. A pick later, the Nationals chose Crews, marking the first time two teammates had gone off the board with the first two selections. Skenes moved quickly in pro ball, reaching Double-A on Aug. 26. He was shut down just before a scheduled start with Altoona against Harrisburg, which could have led to his first showdown with Crews as a professional.

Scouting Report: One of the biggest keys to Skenes’ success in pro ball will revolve around the quality of his fastball. Questions arose about the pitch’s shape and whether--even if he can maintain its upper-90s velocity on a professional schedule--it would play against better hitters. If it becomes an issue, there are multiple avenues to explore, including changing the grip or the emphasis of a two-seamer as a way to continue the east-west profile created by his sweeping slider. In pro ball, Skenes threw his two-seamer at a 44% clip, far more often than his four-seamer. His sweeper was an adjustment that came about through work at LSU, where pitching coach Wes Johnson helped him alter the pitch’s shape from its former, shorter-breaking iteration. As an amateur, scouts projected Skenes’ changeup as a potentially plus pitch. To reach that upside, he’ll need to throw the pitch more often. At LSU, Skenes threw the changeup just 7% of the time. In his brief pro experience, that jumped to 17%. At its best, the pitch is thrown in the upper 80s and features sharp fade and drop, but there’s work to do in order to get it consistently to that ceiling. The Pirates have already worked with Skenes to find a grip that works best. Skenes also has size, athleticism and an outstanding work ethic that should allow him to get the most out of his ability, while also keeping himself open to attacking new challenges as he develops.

The Future: Between college and pro ball, Skenes threw 129.1 innings in 2023, well beyond the 89.1 he threw in 2022 between Air Force and summer ball. After an offseason of rest, he will return poised to begin climbing toward his ceiling as a top-end starter who could make his MLB debut in 2024. n

Scouting Grades Fastball: 70 | Slider: 70 | Changeup: 60 | Control: 60

Draft Prospects

School: Louisiana State Source: 4YR

Commit/Drafted: Never Drafted
Age At Draft: 21.1
BA Grade:65/High
Tools:Fastball: 70. Slider: 70. Changeup: 60. Control: 60.

Skenes put together one of the best seasons that Air Force had ever seen in 2021 as a freshman, when he hit .410/.486/.697 with 11 home runs and also posted a 2.70 ERA in 26.2 innings out of the bullpen. He followed that up with another excellent 2022 season on both sides of the ball, and announced a transfer to Louisiana State for the 2023 season, where he went from a no-doubt first round talent as a two-way player to the best college starter since Stephen Strasburg in 2009. Skenes dropped hitting and focused on pitching in Baton Rouge, while working with former Twins pitching coach Wes Johnson. In one of the most offensive college baseball environments in history, Skenes routinely shut the door on opposing offenses and was a Golden Spikes Award semi-finalist. He posted a 1.69 ERA over 19 starts and 122.2 innings, with a 45.1% strikeout rate and 4.3% walk rate. He broke LSU and the SEC’s single season strikeout record and led the nation with 209 strikeouts—51 more than the No. 2 pitcher in the country. Along with center fielder Dylan Crews, Skenes helped push LSU to a College World Series championship. After sitting 93-94 mph with his fastball in 2022, Skenes averaged more than 98 mph in 2023 and has touched 103 mph at peak velocity. He also changed the shape of his mid-80s slider, going from a short-breaking pitch to one with sweeper action with 11 inches of horizontal movement. Both pitches are 70-grade offerings, with a 31% miss rate on the fastball and a 65% miss rate on the slider. Skenes hasn’t thrown it much, but his upper-80s changeup also has plus potential. He’s an efficient mover on the mound and has a clean, easy delivery with plus control and a workhorse, 6-foot-6, 247-pound frame that allows him to hold upper-90s velocity deep into starts. Skenes has legitimate front-of-the-rotation, ace upside and is also one of the most big league-ready prospects in the class. He has a chance to go first overall.

Top 100 Rankings

Career Transactions

RHP Paul Skenes roster status changed by Pittsburgh Pirates.
RHP Paul Skenes assigned to FCL Pirates.
FCL Pirates activated RHP Paul Skenes.
Pittsburgh Pirates signed RHP Paul Skenes.

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