Triple-A started earlier than the other levels and so there is more data—and some of it is pertinent to redraft leagues too. Obviously, we’ve seen Jackson Holliday already called up. We also know about the stratospheric exploits of the other Norfolk Tides batters: Heston Kjerstad, Kyle Stowers, Coby Mayo, and Connor Norby. Sure enough, RoboScout views Jackson Holliday as the second-best hitter in Triple-A, Mayo fourth and Kjerstad fifth (with Norby and Stowers also in the Top 50).

The best hitter is James Wood of the Nationals who has continued his improved pitch recognition and hit tool we caught glimpses of in spring training into the early minor league season. With more walks than strikeouts, a 225 wRC+, two home runs and five stolen bases in only 53 plate appearances, RoboScout sees him as a .275/.365 25/20 hitter at peak. Expect him in the major leagues this year.

Joey Loperfido with his 10 home runs for the Astros affiliate finds himself in the top seven, lower than expected because of the 34% strikeout rate and the fact that he’s a little older than some of the higher pedigreed hitters.

An interesting name is 5-foot-6-inch utility infielder Caleb Durbin of the Yankees, who has struck out less than 5% of the time and has stolen eight bases already. If he can be a .270 hitter with double-digit home runs, 30+ stolen bases and multi-positional eligibility—as his first 60 plate appearances are pointing to—it goes without saying that he would be a huge fantasy asset. Ideally, he is a mini clone of 2023 Tyler Black.

On the pitching side of things, the top four, or “one short of a pentaverate,” is made up of the cabal of Christian Scott, Cade Povich, Paul Skenes and a rejuvenated Jack Leiter. I expect all of these pitchers to make their MLB debuts this year and be key contributors in redraft leagues. In leagues where he hasn’t been drafted, expect $500+ in NFBC FAAB bidding for Paul Skenes when he debuts in the current armpocalypse wasteland. He’s only throwing three innings per outing—which creates some uncertainty in how much he’ll be let loose in the majors in 2024—but the numbers are clearly elite right now. The others aren’t too shabby either, with RoboScout expecting ERAs under 4.00 when they make their debuts. (Note that public projections will be lower on Jack Leiter on account of his struggles prior to these latest 14 innings).

Double A

On the mound, the top names per RoboScout—and some of these may pitch in the majors this year—are Ian Seymour (TBR), Yu-Min Lin (ARI), Drew Thorpe (CHW) and Caden Dana (LAA). For deeper leagues, a couple interesting names appear in the top eight: Tyler Woessner (MIL) and Ryan Bergert (SDP), two pitchers in their age-24 season who have strikeout rates around 40% and walk rates below 3%. We don’t have 2024 statcast data yet for Double-A, but in 2023, Bergert popped on the internal model with a 114 Stuff+ with a four-pitch mix.

The top hitters in Double-A so far in this young season are Emmanuel Rodriguez (MIN) with four home runs, four stolen bases and a 290 wRC+, Roman Anthony (BOS) with two home runs, two stolen bases as a 20-year-old, Agustin Ramirez (NYY) the 22-year-old catcher with six home runs in only 33 plate appearances and Carson Williams (TBR). The first name in the top 10 who might not be widely rostered in your dynasty leagues and who is showing an improved hit tool to complement his power-speed blend of athleticism is Colby Thomas (OAK), who has kept his strikeout rate below 18% while hitting four home runs and stealing three bags.

High-A

The top five in High-A are Ethan Salas (SDP), Jefferson Rojas (CHC), Carter Jensen (KCR, who was an honorable mention on my breakout list for 2024), Cam Collier (CIN) and Anyelo Encarnacion (STL). The least-heralded name, second baseman Encarnacion, may just be a temporary fixture at the top of the rankings as he has only 16 plate appearances and is being heavily buoyed by his 38% walk rate leading to a 333 wRC+. Last year, he did not have a better-than-average barrel rate, exit velocity or even contact rate, so we’ll only be keeping an eye on him for now until we can check under the hood. If you’re in a deep league, though, it might be worth a speculative bid if you have nothing to lose—after all, RoboScout is smarter than me and my skepticism that this isn’t anything other than a product of small sample sizes.

From the pitching side of things, the pentaverate is Sean Sullivan (COL), Noah Schultz (CHW), Calvin Ziegler (NYM), Jaden Hamm (DET) and Moises Chace (BAL). Hamm was one of Geoff Ponte’s breakout names and has a 45% strikeout rate with only a 3% walk rate. Brett Wichrowski (MIL) on my breakout list finds himself in the top 10 too.

Low-A

There are three Low-A pitchers who have separated themselves from the pack after two starts: Santiago Suarez (TBR) with a 47% strikeout rate and no walks over 10 innings, Charlee Soto (MIN) and George Klassen (PHI) who—and no, the record isn’t skipping—was on Geoff’s pitching breakout list (along with Landen Maroudis (TOR) who is seventh in Low-A). If any of these names are available in your league, I do not expect that to be the case next week.

In the batter’s box, the top seven names in Low-A are Colt Emerson (SEA), Juan Flores (a catcher for the Angels), Cristofer Torin (ARI), Yophery Rodriguez (another popular breakout outfielder name for the Brewers), Adrian Santana (TBR), Arjun Nimmala (TOR) and newly-acquired Dodger Zyhir Hope (LAD). It’s early and there will be a lot of volatility here, but I would roster any of these names—including the teenage catcher—in any leagues that roster 300 prospects.

So there you have it—a quick hit on what RoboScout sees thus far in the extremely young minor league season. Happy bidding!

But more often, when a top 10 pick like Josh Vitters (third pick in 2007), Donovan Tate (third pick in 2009), Bubba Starling (fifth pick, 2011) or Alex Jackson (sixth pick in 2014) gets sent to Low-A to begin their second full season, it’s an early warning sign that their hitting ability hasn’t lived up to pre-draft expectations.

Of the 140 high school position players who signed who were drafted in the top 30 picks between 2000 and 2019, 48 of them (34.3%) were sent to Low-A (or held back in extended spring) to start their second full pro season.

Considering it’s more than one in three prep first-round picks, it doesn’t seem all that unusual. The more common assignment is being sent to High-A, with 75 (53.6%) doing that. The standouts are those who were sent to Double-A. Only 17 (12.1%) were deemed that advanced.

It’s just one data point, and it’s one that doesn’t make any allowances for injuries, different development paces or anything else. But if you have just this one piece of information, it offers a very clear snapshot of a prospect’s long-term potential. The outcomes of those players are dramatically different depending on where they are sent.

Level	Players	Avg WAR	Median WAR	< -0.1 Career WAR	Didn’t Reach Majors
AA	17	24.3	15.6	0	0
HiA	75	8.0	3.3	16	12
LoA	48	1.8	-0.1	14	20

Players sent to Double-A are ticketed for stardom. Players who begin at High-A are a much more mixed bag. There are plenty of stars, a solid number of solid big leaguers and a number of players who never reach the majors.

But for first-round prep hitters who begin their second full pro season in Low-A, they are more likely to finish with a sub 0.0 career WAR or never reach the majors than they are to have a significant MLB career.

The 17 who started in Double-A two years after they were drafted included Mike Trout, Manny Machado, Joe Mauer, Prince Fielder, Adrian Gonzalez, B.J. Upton and Bobby Witt Jr. 

Every one of those 17 made the majors. The least productive of the group were still big leaguers with lengthy careers. Sergio Santos eventually converted to pitching and pitched as a reliever, while Delmon Young finished second in Rookie of the Year voting as a 21-year-old, but was out of the majors by the time he was 30. Them, Brett Lawrie and Colby Rasmus are the worst performers from a group filled with perennial all-stars. 

Among the High-A group, there are a number of stars. Carlos Correa, Christian Yelich, Justin Upton, Jason Heyward, Byron Buxton, Corey Seager, Kyle Tucker and Francisco Lindor all were players who were on the standard development track when their second full pro season began.

But there also are plenty of these players who go on to have up-and-down MLB careers or didn’t make it. Of the 75 players who started at High-A, 13 have posted 15+ bWAR for their career. Four had 10-15 bWAR, 30 had 0.0-9.9 bWAR. That left 30 who either didn’t post a 0.0 WAR or didn’t reach the majors.

When you get to the group sent to Low-A, the track record becomes much more dire. The long-term success stories are Nimmo, Hicks and Grichuk. Those are the three of 48 who have 10+ career bWAR. Delino DeShields Jr. had a few solid seasons after being a Rule 5 pick. Tyler Stephenson has had a solid career so far and is mid-career. Alex Kirilloff and Will Benson are early in their pro careers and could reach that level.

Yankees shortstop Anthony Volpe looks set to become a success story as well, but that one comes with a caveat. As a 2019 draftee, Volpe didn’t get to play in 2020 because of the cancellation of the MiLB season because of the coronavirus pandemic. That may have played a role in him beginning the 2021 season at Low-A.

Of the 48 sent to Low-A, 20 who have not reached the majors and another 14 have posted negative career WAR.

It’s too early to make any career comparisons for prep first-round position players taken since 2020, but here is a look at where those players were sent to begin their second full pro season. Much like the 2019 draft class, the 2020 class data could be affected by the lost 2020 covid season, which meant that players didn’t make their pro debut until 2021.

Player	Year	Pick	Level
Robert Hassell	2020	8	HiA
Zac Veen	2020	9	HiA
Austin Hendrick	2020	12	LoA
Ed Howard	2020	16	HiA
Nick Yorke	2020	17	HiA
Pete Crow-Armstrong	2020	19	LoA
Jordan Walker	2020	21	AA
Carson Tucker	2020	23	LoA
Tyler Soderstrom	2020	26	HiA
Marcelo Mayer	2021	4	HiA
Jordan Lawlar	2021	6	AA
Benny Montgomery	2021	8	HiA
Brady House	2021	11	LoA
Harry Ford	2021	12	HiA
Khalil Watson	2021	16	HiA
Colson Montgomery	2021	22	HiA
Max Muncy	2021	25	HiA
Jackson Merrill	2021	27	HiA
Carson Williams	2021	28	HiA
Jay Allen	2021	30	HiA
Jackson Holliday	2022	1	AAA
Druw Jones	2022	2	LoA
Termarr Johnson	2022	4	HiA
Elijah Green	2022	5	LoA
Jett Williams	2022	14	AA
Justin Crawford	2022	17	HiA
Cole Young	2022	21	AA
Xavier Isaac	2022	29	HiA

10 Statcast Standouts

James Wood, OF, Nationals

Rochester’s season got off to a slow start because of weather. We’ve finally gotten some games and a good sample size of data. The results are quite eye-popping. Wood is currently averaging 95.8 mph on 35 batted ball events, as well as an 90th percentile exit velocity of 108.7 mph, with a very manageable swinging strike rate of 13.8%, exceptional for a player that stands 6-foot-7. The only flaw in his profile this season is his 2.9 degree average launch angle, which may limit his home run output. Wood is currently batting .370/.500/.630 with more walks than strikeouts (12 to 11), along with five steals. He looks like he’ll force his way onto the Nationals’ MLB roster sooner rather than later.

Owen Caissie, CF, Cubs

In terms of Statcast metrics such as exit velos and launch angles, Caissie’s early-season performance is arguably more impressive than Wood’s. Let’s take a look at a couple of charts:

Red bubbles suggest players are generating launch angles geared for home run power, green bubbles indicate players who may be wasting their exit velos by hammering balls into the ground. Larger bubbles indicate a player who is young for the level.

Caissie is showing a tick more swing and miss and slightly less raw power than Wood, but he’s doing that while producing an almost ideal 17 degree launch angle, which may help him tap into more of his raw power than Wood. While this hasn’t yet translated into home runs this season, we wouldn’t be surprised to see the surface level results swing upwards soon. The strikeouts remain a concern, but he’s also walking at a decent clip, making him a classic “three true outcomes” type of hitter.

Max Muncy, SS, Athletics

We highlighted a selection of names in the two charts above, and the player that really pops is Max Muncy. He ranked as the No. 9 prospect in the A’s system entering the season and his preseason scouting report highlighted changes he made to simplify his approach and cut down on his strikeout rate. In the early going, Muncy is sporting an excellent 9.8% swinging strike rate, along with a very good 20.8% whiff rate, while posting MLB quality exit velos with optimal launch angles. He’s currently hitting .293/.396/.463 as a full-time shortstop in Triple-A and is the same age as Wood and Caissie. He looks like he may catapult himself up Oakland’s list, or hit his way onto the major league roster.

Joey Loperfido, Astros

The good news: Loperfido has a 1.324 OPS, powered by 10 home runs in just 14 games.

The bad news: He’s struck out 24 times already compared to nine walks.

If you refer to the chart above, you’ll see Loperfido near Muncy and Caminero, but he has a very small bubble as he’s much older than those players. Looking at the underlying metrics would suggest that Loperfido’s power output is real, albeit at a more reasonable level, while his strikeout rates look to be somewhat inflated. He could be playing his way into a stacked Astros lineup.

Jack Leiter, SP, Rangers

In our first Statcast Standouts piece, we highlighted Leiter’s first start of the season, which was very promising. His third start of the season on April 13 was perhaps even more impressive:

Leiter has a low release point, which shares a lot of similar traits to Jared Jones and Spencer Strider, and generated a lot of swing and misses with the fastball, as well as four whiffs with the slider. The fastball has elite pitch metrics, given the low release point, and an 87 mph slider with only 2.6 inches of IVB will usually grade out well, especially when paired with an elite fastball.

The challenge for Leiter is rounding out the arsenal beyond the fastball/slider pair, as he probably needs to find a third pitch before he can be relied upon to go five or more innings against a major league lineup. If not, he looks ready to grab a bullpen role down the stretch, and would likely thrive in a high-leverage role.

Dominic Hamel, RHP, Mets

Hamel’s IVB numbers are eye-popping, routinely getting 20 inches or more of IVB, which is elite at any arm angle. His 92-94 mph fastball has average velocity, but the ride will allow him to get a lot of whiffs, while potentially making him susceptible to the long ball. His sweeper gets almost 17 inches of sweep and has been good for a 29% swinging strike rate, along with a 60% whiff rate when batters offer at the pitch. The changeup has gotten whiffs and called strikes and looks like a viable third pitch. The cutter might be a good pitch for him if he can make it a true gyro slider, which would make him a five-pitch pitcher, as he can steal strikes with the curveball.

After a disastrous first start where he walked seven, Hamel struck out 10 batters in five innings, with only one walk. At age 25, he may not need a lot of time in Triple-A to force his way into the Mets rotation.

Jesus Baez, 3B/SS, Mets

We wrote about Josue Briceño last week, and he would indeed continue to be a Statcast Standout with exceptional exit velocities and minuscule swinging strike rates. Today, we’re going to highlight Baez, who’s sporting plus exit velos and pristine swinging strike rates, with a good chance to stay on the dirt. This jives with our preseason scouting report that described him as having exemplary bat speed and raw power. He’s sporting an .807 OPS in the early going with more walks (four) than strikeouts (three). Big arrow up for Baez in the early going.

Jonah Tong, RHP, Mets

Mets fans, if you want to get excited about a pitching prospect, let us introduce you to Jonah Tong, our second Canadian and third Mets prospect on this list. Even at 92-93 mph, his fastball is plus because it averages 20 inches of IVB. The filled bubbles in the chart above paint a good picture of just how much swing and miss the pitch is getting. What’s even more exciting is that he’s hit 97 mph with the pitch, which suggests he might have a lot more in the tank as he matures. This is a potentially double-plus pitch if his development breaks the right way.

He throws a cutter/gyro slider to righties, which has picked up a lot of whiffs but hasn’t been very consistent. There’s potential with the pitch if he can command it, and make it a true gyro slider, a pitch that usually pairs well with the high vert fastball. The curveball show promise as a good contact management and strike-stealing pitch. The changeup with its current shape probably won’t work, but he likely needs it to attack lefties. He’s still very raw, but the potential here is quite high, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him featured prominently on the Mets list (and possibly even the Top 100) by next season.

George Klassen, RHP, Phillies

Klassen, the Phillies’ No. 28 prospect entering the season, looks like a dynamic three-pitch pitcher in the early going. The fastball doesn’t have great ride, but it plays up given his very low arm angle, and 97.2 mph velo that touched 99.8 mph. It’s not a sure-fire top-shelf fastball the way Tong’s projects to be, however, Klassen looks to have an elite bullet slider, coming in at a blistering 91 mph with negative IVB, getting whiffs over 55% of the time. He also has a hard curve at 85-86 mph, which also gets lots of whiffs. When you have two elite breaking balls, the fastball only needs to be about average to be an effective pitcher. He’s dominating with mostly just the fastball, but will likely need to lean on his power breaking balls more as he moves up the ladder.

George Lombard Jr., SS, Yankees

Lombard doesn’t do anything super loud just yet, but he’s very young for Low-A and is already posting plus exit velos (105 mph 90th percentile exit velocity, 90 mph average exit velocity), with a somewhat concerning 38.9% whiff rate, which is higher than we’d like to see. However, he has tremendous patience, with 15 walks to 12 strikeouts. If he develops power as grows, he could be a three-true-outcome shortstop, with lots of home runs and great OBPs.

2. This was a major series win for the Tide and its importance can’t be overstated. Alabama came into the weekend just 4-8 in SEC play and if it had taken another series loss, it would have been left with a heavy lift in the second half of conference play just to get to the 13 conference wins that are usually required for SEC teams to get at-large bids.

The second half of SEC play is also brutally tough for the Tide. Fresh off beating the No. 1 team in the country, Alabama gets another crack at the top-ranked team as Texas A&M, which ascended to the top spot in the rankings, comes to Tuscaloosa this weekend. Trips to Mississippi and Mississippi State follow before Alabama finishes with LSU and at Auburn.

On paper, the schedule eases after A&M leaves town. But Alabama is 3-7 in road games and has been swept in its two conference road series—at Georgia and at Kentucky. Until it proves it can beat quality competition on the road, trips to the Magnolia State and a visit to archrival Auburn, which will either be playing for its postseason life or playing its own CWS, can’t be taken for granted.

3. For Arkansas, there’s no cause for alarm after this series. Just about every team in the country has had a bad weekend and going on the road has been incredibly difficult in the SEC this season.

That said, Arkansas is maybe more vulnerable to this kind of weekend than is comfortable. Its pitching staff is the best in the nation. Its offense, however, is not in the same tier. The Razorbacks rank 12th in the SEC in scoring (6.97 runs per game). They fare comparatively better in conference play, ranking ninth at 5.47 runs per game, but this isn’t a high-powered offense.

So how much of an issue is the lineup? Another SEC team may catch Arkansas in the same way Alabama did this weekend—especially with road trips to South Carolina, Kentucky and Texas A&M still to come. It’s hard to see any team coming into Baum-Walker Stadium, where the Razorbacks are 25-1 this season, and outpitching Arkansas for a weekend. Omaha, assuming Arkansas gets there, may be a different story, but that’s a long way off.

4. Clemson came into its series against NC State ranked No. 2 in the country and having not lost a series all season. And, like Arkansas, that changed this weekend. The Wolfpack won the first two games of the series, winning 11-8 in Friday’s opener and 4-0 on Saturday. It became the first team to shut out Clemson since March 25, 2022 (Pittsburgh).

NC State went into the series on a five-game losing streak and came away with a much-needed series win. The Wolfpack got a couple solid starts from Dominic Fritton (5.2 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 6 K) and Cooper Consiglio (6 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 2 BB, 3 K). They also did a good job of taking advantage of some sloppiness from the Tigers, who made seven errors in the first two games.

NC State (20-13, 10-8) really needed the series win. Not only did it stop a losing streak, but the rest of the Wolfpack’s ACC schedule is brutally tough. It still has home series against North Carolina and Wake Forest and visits to Florida State and Virginia on the slate. All four of those teams are ranked in the top 15 and just splitting those 12 games feels like it would be a significant accomplishment. This weekend gives NC State a measure of breathing room before the finishing stretch.

5. Like Arkansas, Clemson (29-6, 11-4) shouldn’t feel cause for alarm a poor week (it also lost to S.C.-Upstate on Tuesday). Its bats weren’t particularly good all week—it scored 20 runs in four games and was outhit in all three losses—and its defense let it down against NC State.

But every team in the country has a weekend like this at some point. The key for the Tigers is going to be how it responds. Sunday’s 7-0 win behind an excellent outing from righthander Aidan Knaak (8 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 10 K) was a good start. Clemson this week gets some fortunate scheduling with Charlotte (16-20) and Pittsburgh (14-18) coming to Doug Kingsmore Stadium. It needs to take advantage.

6. The series losses for Arkansas and Clemson opened up the top of the rankings. Texas A&M was more than ready to take over at No. 1 following a commanding sweep of Vanderbilt. The Aggies didn’t allow a run for the first 17 innings of the series (a streak that stretched into Sunday due to Friday’s run-rule shortened victory) and scored 36 runs on the weekend. It was as emphatic a sweep as you could ask for, especially against a team that came into the weekend 10th in the nation in ERA (3.71).

The Aggies (32-4, 11-4) are No. 1 for the first time under coach Jim Schlossnagle and look like the most complete team in the country. Their rotation of Ryan Prager (7-0, 1.98), Tanner Jones (3-1, 3.86) and Justin Lamkin (2-1, 4.19) is solid, and Evan Aschenbeck (4-0, 1.47, 5 SV) and Chris Cortez (5-1, 2.32) give them a pair of weapons out of the bullpen. The lineup is averaging 8.97 runs per game with star outfielders Jace LaViolette (.303/.463/.765, 16 HR) and Braden Montgomery (.380/.509/.891, 19 HR) leading the way. And it’s a solid fielding team (.980).

A&M’s lone series loss came at Florida on the first weekend of SEC play. But it handled that setback well and is 14-2 since. The rest of the schedule sets up fairly well. It still has road trips to Alabama, LSU and Mississippi, none of which are easy, especially this weekend in Tuscaloosa (just ask Arkansas), but all are manageable. It hosts Georgia and Arkansas, two teams you’d much rather get at home than on the road.

A&M has won the SEC just once (2016). Kentucky and Arkansas are going to have something to say about whether the Aggies can win another title, but the Aggies can feel great about where they are at the mid-point of SEC play.

7. Vanderbilt (26-10, 8-7) was always going to be fighting an uphill battle going on the road to College Station but this was still a weekend to forget. The Commodores were shutout in back-to-back games for the first time since 1995 and were behind from the jump, as A&M opened Friday’s game at the plate with a walk and back-to-back home runs from LaViolette and Montgomery.

While I want to say this is the kind of weekend you just forget about, I don’t think it’s that simple for Vanderbilt. The Commodores have spent all season ranked in the top 10 but when you really start to evaluate their resume, it’s anything but straightforward. I’ll probably dive into this more in this week’s Projected Field of 64, but suffice it to say, Vanderbilt would be on the hosting bubble if Selection Monday were today.

Selection Monday, of course, is still more than a month away. Vanderbilt has plenty of time to shore things up. But after a very difficult weekend, it’s clear the Commodores have work to do.

8. West Virginia picked up a hard-fought sweep of UCF and has now won seven of its last eight games. The Mountaineers needed late comebacks in Friday’s 7-6 victory, when they scored three runs in the bottom of the seventh to push ahead, and in Sunday’s 11-10 victory in 11 innings, when they needed to score twice in the ninth to force extra innings.

West Virginia (22-13, 11-4) remains in first place in the Big 12 and surged into the top 30 of RPI. After treading water for more than a month without All-American JJ Wetherholt, the Mountaineers are 6-1 since he returned to the lineup April 5. It’s not all Wetherholt, but having him back at the top of the lineup does seem to have energized the team and they’ve put themselves in a position where they can make a run at the conference title and a home regional with a strong finishing kick.

9. UCF (21-12, 8-10) had a brutal week, going 0-4 with a loss at Stetson thrown in. This was the second time the Knights have been swept in Big 12 play, as they also went winless at Oklahoma.

I don’t think this weekend was too much cause for concern. West Virginia is a very good team and the conditions in Morgantown were very difficult—Friday night was played in a steady rain and the wind howled all weekend. On the other hand, UCF is now under .500 in conference play despite the fact it won four of its six Big 12 series. The problem is the Knights have yet to sweep a conference series and they’ve been swept twice.

The Big 12 is as full of parity as any major conference, but UCF’s schedule seems to ease down the stretch (Central Michigan, Cincinnati, at Houston, Texas, at Baylor). Finish strong and the Knights should be in the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2017. Hosting is still on the table but will probably require them to go at least 8-4 in their remaining conference games.

10. Florida State put together an excellent week, going 4-0 against archrivals Florida and Miami. The Seminoles started it Tuesday with a 19-4, seven-inning victory against the Gators to complete the season sweep. They then swept the Hurricanes, completing a season sweep of both their rivals for just the second time in program history and the first time since 1960.

Neither Florida (18-17) nor Miami (16-19) is playing particularly well right now. But that shouldn’t diminish the Seminoles’ accomplishment after they thoroughly beat both rivals this season. They didn’t trail after the first inning in any of the six games and allowed an average of 5.0 runs against their rivals.

As great as this week was for Florida State, it did also get some bad news. Righthanders Cam Leiter and Conner Whittaker both missed their starts. Leiter (5-1, 4.63) also missed his start last week at Boston College. Coach Link Jarrett this week told reporters in Tallahassee that while Leiter was doing better, he wasn’t ready to return. Jarrett said Whittaker (4-0, 5.31) struggled to bounce back from his start at BC but that it was too early to know his long-term prognosis. Florida State has also been without righthander Ben Barrett (1-0, 1.86) for more than a month.

Lefthanders Brady Louck (2 IP, 6 H, 4 R, 1 BB, 1 K) and Carson Dorsey (3.2 IP, 6 H, 3 R, 2 BB, 3 K) this week stepped into the rotation, with lefthanders Brennen Oxford (4.2 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 4 K) and Andrew Armstrong (4.1 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 0 K) piggybacking them. The strategy worked against Miami, but obviously Florida State is a better team with Leiter and Whittaker in the rotation. Getting them back sooner than later would be a big boost.

11. For the first time in seven seasons, Mississippi won the rivalry series against Mississippi State. The Bulldogs won Friday’s opener, 8-0, before the Rebels bounced back Saturday for a wild, 10-9 victory in 12 innings and then rolled to a 14-2 victory in seven innings Sunday.

For Ole Miss (20-16, 5-10), the series win couldn’t have come at a better time. Friday’s loss was the Rebels’ eighth straight and 10th in 12 games. They had lost three straight series since beating South Carolina on opening weekend of SEC play and were staring down yet another series loss to their archrivals.

But Ole Miss made a stand Saturday. It was down 7-3 in the middle of the eighth inning before rallying to tie the game. Mississippi State pushed ahead with a run in the top of the 11th and 12th innings. Both times, the Rebels responded, including Jackson Ross’ two-run walk-off single.

Ole Miss is still facing an uphill battle to put together an NCAA Tournament resume. With its current RPI (29), it would have a solid shot at a bid with 13 SEC wins, which would mean going 8-7 in the second half of conference play. Ole Miss will need to play better on the road than it has to this point (4-8) to hit that mark, but perhaps we’ll look back at Saturday’s gutty win as a turning point.

12. Because it’s a major rivalry and because Mississippi State lost the series for the first time since 2015 and because of the way it lost Saturday and Sunday, the heat this weekend got turned up in Starkville.

Mississippi State’s bullpen, which has been solid this season, couldn’t hold any of the leads it was handed Saturday. Nothing went right Sunday, as Ole Miss scored its biggest win in the history of the rivalry. In the end, the series was a tale of two halves: Mississippi State outscored Ole Miss, 15-3, over the first 16.5 innings and then got beat, 21-5, the rest of the way and lost the series.

You can really get granular about what went wrong in Oxford, but the reality for the Bulldogs is probably that they’re about a .500 SEC team. There are some strong building blocks like outfielder Dakota Jordan (.370/.494/.770, 15 HR) and starters Khal Stephan (5-2, 2.84) and Jurrangelo Cijntje (5-1, 3.80). Mississippi State can hang with anyone in the conference—it’s the only team this season to beat Texas A&M in College Station—but it struggles away from home. The Bulldogs are likely headed back to the NCAA Tournament after missing the last two years but probably won’t host.

That doesn’t mean Mississippi State can’t get hot down the stretch or in June and make a run, but it’s going to need some players to step up on both sides of the ball.

13. Kentucky (30-5, 14-1), meanwhile, just kept winning. The Wildcats rolled to a sweep at Auburn, blasting 11 home runs on the weekend. They’re not only off to their best ever start to conference play, they’ve also won a program-record 10 straight SEC games.

I was most impressed by their ability to win in such a different way the last two weekends. Against Alabama a week ago, it was all pitching, as Kentucky allowed just three runs in the series. At Auburn, they scored 28 runs and showed that their offense isn’t all about running and playing small ball. That kind of versatility will serve the Wildcats very well down the stretch and into June.

14. Oklahoma (21-14, 11-4) snapped out of its rut with a sweep of Kansas State to keep pace with West Virginia atop the Big 12 standings. The Sooners had lost eight of their last 12 games coming into the week before on Tuesday beating Texas-Arlington and then sweeping aside the Wildcats.

It was a get-right week in a big way for Oklahoma, which did not trail in any of the four games. Adding to the good news, outfielder John Spikerman made a cameo Sunday, appearing as a pinch-runner for his first action since breaking his hamate March 16.

If Oklahoma put its midseason swoon to bed, everything is still in front of it. The Sooners RPI is up to 19 and its in contention for the Big 12 title (though both West Virginia and Oklahoma State hold tiebreakers against it).

15. A week after winning a crucial series against UC Santa Barbara to firmly take control of the Big West, UC Irvine hit a snag. The Anteaters lost Tuesday at Southern California and then took a gut-punch of a series loss at UC San Diego, the reigning champion.

The Tritons and Anteaters traded blowouts in the first two games of the series, setting up Sunday’s rubber game. The game went back and forth, but UCSD led 8-5 going into the ninth inning. UCI scored four runs in the top of the ninth to retake the lead but it couldn’t hold on. Brock Kleszcz hit a two-out triple to tie the game and then the Tritons won the game when a pop up fell in just inside the left field line beyond the infield.

It was a week to forget for UCI (25-7, 11-4), but it’s still in first place in the Big West. The Anteaters need to bounce back quickly because it doesn’t have a large lead, but it gets to return home this week, where it is 13-3 on the season.

Eight for Omaha

Arkansas, Clemson, Florida State, North Carolina, Oregon State, Tennessee, Texas A&M, West Virginia

One change to the field this week as West Virginia replaces Vanderbilt. Am I being aggressive with the Mountaineers? Maybe. But I’ve been driving this bandwagon all year. They were my Omaha Sleeper before the season started and I’m ready to go all-in now. As I’ve repeatedly written, the Big 12 has had a representative in the College World Series every year for the last decade. So, why not the Mountaineers, who are rolling and have one of the best players in the nation at the top of their lineup?

Looking Ahead

No. 7 Kentucky hosts No. 3 Tennessee in SEC East showdown. The Wildcats (30-5, 14-1) and Volunteers (30-6, 11-4) have been two of the most consistent teams in the country this year. Kentucky has won a program-record 10 straight SEC games and will finish the weekend in first place in the SEC East regardless of the outcome. But these teams are thinking about more than a division title. Both are in contention for the conference title and this series will also have implications come May when the selection committee seeds the hosts.

No. 22 NC State hosts No. 11 North Carolina for rivalry weekend. Fresh off its series win at Clemson, NC State (20-13, 10-8) returns home to host North Carolina (29-7, 14-4). The Tar Heels swept the series last year in Chapel Hill and are 7-4 against the Wolfpack since the pandemic. NC State will be looking to use its home-field advantage, as it is 16-4 at Doak Field this season.

No. 20 Louisiana puts streak on the line at No. 21 Coastal Carolina. The Ragin’ Cajuns (28-9, 14-1) have won 14 straight conference games since losing to Arkansas State on opening day of the Sun Belt season and 19 of their last 20 games overall. They’ll bring that streak to Spring Brooks Stadium, where the Chanticleers (24-11, 9-6) are 19-4 this season. While this is a first vs. second showdown in the Sun Belt standings, Louisiana will be in first place at the end of the weekend no matter how the series unfolds. But there’s a lot on the line for both teams, particularly Coastal, which has a very realistic path to hosting.

They have a chance to become the longest-tenured lefthanded-hitting double-play combo in MLB history.

A club having a lefthanded hitter at both shortstop and second base is a rare occurrence. Just 24 teams in history have had lefthanded hitters who batted at least 450 times at both positions. And nine of the 24 instances were repeat appearances by a double-play combo.

According to Baseball-Reference.com Stathead, the teams with regular lefthanded-hitting double-play combos are:

1909-10 Giants: Al Bridwell, Larry Doyle
1913 Cubs: Al Bridwell, Johnny Evers
1921-22 White Sox: Eddie Collins, Ernie Johnson
1926-28 Tigers: Charlie Gehringer, Jackie Tavener
1937-38 Senators: Buddy Myer, Cecil Travis
1955 Red Sox: Billy Goodman, Billy Klaus
1963 Athletics: Wayne Causey, Jerry Lumpe
1964-65 Tigers: Jerry Lumpe, Dick McAuliffe
1966-67 Astros: Sonny Jackson, Joe Morgan
1985-86 Brewers: Jim Gantner, Ernie Riles
2010 D-backs: Stephen Drew, Kelly Johnson
2016-17 Giants: Brandon Crawford, Joe Panik
2016 Dodgers: Corey Seager, Chase Utley
2022 Mariners: J.P. Crawford, Adam Frazier
2023 Nationals: CJ Abrams, Luis Garcia Jr.

The 2024 Orioles are likely to join this list. Same goes for the 2025, 2026, 2027 and 2028 Orioles. 

Side note: Baltimore’s beltway rivals in Washington also could add multiple entries with CJ Abrams and Luis Garcia. 

The rarity of lefthanded-hitting double-play combos is largely a function of shortstops being primarily righthanded or switch hitters. Historically, most righthanded throwers—a prerequisite to play any non-first base infield position—also bat righthanded.

About 73% of major league shortstops who played long enough to accrue 1,000 plate appearances batted righthanded. Another 18% were switch-hitters, leaving 9% as lefthanded hitters.

The best lefthanded-hitting shortstops in history are Hall of Famer Arky Vaughan and two-time World Series MVP Corey Seager. The number of young lefthanded-hitting shortstops in MLB today is notable and includes Henderson, Abrams and Oneil Cruz. 

At second base, the share of lefthanded hitters with 1,000 PAs is roughly 18%, or double the shortstop rate.

One other reason for the relative rarity of lefthanded-hitting double-play combos is simply the inherent platoon disadvantage lefthanded hitters face against lefthanded pitchers. A manager who has lefthanded hitters at two key defensive positions could find himself in a bind in late-and-close situations against southpaws where the logical play is to pinch-hit a righthanded batter.

The Orioles’ roster is structured well in this regard. They can pinch-hit for Henderson or Holliday and still have Jorge Mateo capable of playing plus defense at either middle infield spot. 

And while Henderson loses nearly 300 OPS points when facing lefthanded pitchers, Holliday is a stronger pure hitter who will probably not be as subject to platoon splits once he finds his sea legs in MLB.

The Orioles have a lot to look forward to this decade, and their rare lefthanded-hitting double-play combo is a big reason why.

That was the case. Kjerstad’s $5.2 million signing bonus was nearly $2.6 million under the assigned slot value for the second overall pick ($7,789,900) and the biggest under slot deal of the 2020 draft. Below are the top 10 picks in the class:

Pick	Team	Player	Slot Value	Signing Bonus	Over/Under
1	DET	Spencer Torkelson	$8,415,300	$8,416,300	$1,000
2	BAL	Heston Kjerstad	$7,789,900	$5,200,000	-$2,589,900
3	MIA	Max Meyer	$7,221,200	$6,700,000	-$521,200
4	KC	Asa Lacy	$6,664,000	$6,670,000	$6,000
5	TOR	Austin Martin	$6,180,700	$7,000,825	$820,125
6	SEA	Emerson Hancock	$5,742,900	$5,700,000	-$42,900
7	PIT	Nick Gonzales	$5,432,400	$5,432,400	$0
8	SD	Robert Hassell	$5,176,900	$4,300,000	-$876,900
9	COL	Zac Veen	$4,949,100	$5,000,000	$50,900
10	LAA	Reid Detmers	$4,739,900	$4,670,000	-$69,900

Kjerstad’s bonus was the lowest of any player taken inside the first seven picks. That huge amount of savings was then put towards a pair of high upside prep players taken in the fourth and fifth rounds—third baseman Coby Mayo and righthander Carter Baumler.

Round	Pick	Player	Slot Value	Signing Bonus	Over/Under
1	2	Heston Kjerstad	$7,789,900	$5,200,000	-$2,589,900
1s	30	Jordan Westburg	$2,365,500	$2,365,500	$0
2	39	Hudson Haskin	$1,906,800	$1,906,800	$0
3	74	Anthony Servideo	$844,200	$950,000	$105,800
4	103	Coby Mayo	$565,600	$1,750,000	$1,184,400
5	133	Carter Baumler	$422,300	$1,500,000	$1,077,700

While Baumler has dealt with injury and has yet to pitch more than 17 innings in a season since being selected, Mayo has been an unqualified success. He currently ranks as the team’s No. 3 overall prospect and the 24th-best prospect in baseball. 

Kjerstad, meanwhile, is a top-50 prospect in his own right and currently looks like a much more impactful player than Martin, who was the consensus top player available on the board at the time of Baltimore’s No. 2 overall pick. Martin could still be a useful player. He’s in the big leagues with the Twins currently and entered the season as the team’s No. 9 prospect, but his lack of power might make him more of a utility type than the middle-of-the-order regular that Kjerstad projects to be.

The strategy with Cowser in the 2021 draft was the same. The 2021 class didn’t have a clear top prospect but instead a group of five players who the industry viewed as the clear top tier. A perfect situation for the Orioles, who just so happened to have the fifth overall pick in the draft. 

Four of the top five players in the class went with the first four picks. Rather than taking the No. 5 ranked player (Vanderbilt righthander Kumar Rocker) or any other player ranked inside the top 10, the Orioles selected Cowser, a mid major outfielder who ranked No. 11. He was viewed as one of the safer profiles in the class but more of a middle of the first round talent.

Once again the Orioles created big bonus pool savings with the pick:

Pick	Team	Player	Slot Value	Signing Bonus	Over/Under
1	PIT	Henry Davis	$8,415,300	$6,500,000	-$1,915,300
2	TEX	Jack Leiter	$7,789,900	$7,922,000	$132,100
3	DET	Jackson Jobe	$7,221,200	$6,900,000	-$321,200
4	BOS	Marcelo Mayer	$6,664,000	$6,664,000	$0
5	BAL	Colton Cowser	$6,180,700	$4,900,000	-$1,280,700
6	ARI	Jordan Lawlar	$5,742,900	$6,713,300	$970,400
7	KC	Frank Mozzicato	$5,432,400	$3,547,500	-$1,884,900
8	COL	Benny Montgomery	$5,176,900	$5,000,000	-$176,900
9	LAA	Sam Bachman	$4,949,100	$3,847,500	-$1,101,600
10	NY	Kumar Rocker	$4,739,900	Did not sign	–

This time the Orioles didn’t have multiple $1 million-plus over slot deals to hand out and they didn’t exclusively use big savings on high school prospects, but they still had a pair of $500,000 or more over slot deals on day two and four over-slot deals in total: 

Round	Overall Pick	Player	Slot Value	Signing Bonus	Over/Under
1	5	Colton Cowser	$6,180,700	$4,900,000	-$1,280,700
2	41	Connor Norby	$1,813,500	$1,700,000	-$113,500
2s	65	Reed Trimble	$1,025,100	$800,000	-$225,100
3	76	John Rhodes	$818,200	$1,375,000	$556,800
4	106	Donta Williams	$549,000	$400,000	-$149,000
5	137	Carlos Tavera	$406,000	$375,000	-$31,000
6	167	Collin Burns	$304,200	$375,000	$70,800
7	197	Connor Pavolony	$237,000	$325,000	$88,000
8	227	Creed Willems	$187,700	$1,000,000	$812,300
9	257	Ryan Higgins	$159,700	$159,700	$0
10	287	Billy Cook	$148,200	$100,000	-$48,200

To this point none of the players targeted for over slot deals have panned out the same way that Mayo has. None of Creed Willems, Connor Pavolony or Collin Burns currently rank inside the team’s top 30 prospects. John Rhodes showed a big improvement in exit velocity in 2023 and ranks as the team’s No. 26 prospect but doesn’t look like an impact regular quite yet.

Still, the 2021 class hammers home the way Baltimore has liked to navigate the draft. In fact, even with the team’s No. 1 overall pick of Jackson Holliday in 2022 they saved $656,900 in bonus pool money. Holliday signed for an $8.19 million bonus that was roughly the same as what Druw Jones signed for ($8.189 million) at slot value for the second pick.

While Holliday is the most prominent example of Baltimore’s rebuild and success at the top of the draft, players like Cowser and Kjerstad also serve as excellent examples of Baltimore’s willingness to go in non-obvious directions with first round picks that create bonus pool flexibility and also just look like the correct calls in terms of pure talent years later.

In 2023 the Orioles moved off their under-slot strategy by signing Enrique Bradfield to a slot deal with the 17th overall pick. Will they stick with that sort of strategy in 2024 when they pick 22nd overall—the lowest they have picked since 2016—or will they try and replicate the portfolio approach that has served them so well? 

We’ll see on draft day. But if Baltimore again throws a curveball with their first overall pick it’ll be hard to question them.