Triple-A started earlier than the other levels and so there is more data—and some of it is pertinent to redraft leagues too. Obviously, we’ve seen Jackson Holliday already called up. We also know about the stratospheric exploits of the other Norfolk Tides batters: Heston Kjerstad, Kyle Stowers, Coby Mayo, and Connor Norby. Sure enough, RoboScout views Jackson Holliday as the second-best hitter in Triple-A, Mayo fourth and Kjerstad fifth (with Norby and Stowers also in the Top 50).

The best hitter is James Wood of the Nationals who has continued his improved pitch recognition and hit tool we caught glimpses of in spring training into the early minor league season. With more walks than strikeouts, a 225 wRC+, two home runs and five stolen bases in only 53 plate appearances, RoboScout sees him as a .275/.365 25/20 hitter at peak. Expect him in the major leagues this year.

Joey Loperfido with his 10 home runs for the Astros affiliate finds himself in the top seven, lower than expected because of the 34% strikeout rate and the fact that he’s a little older than some of the higher pedigreed hitters.

An interesting name is 5-foot-6-inch utility infielder Caleb Durbin of the Yankees, who has struck out less than 5% of the time and has stolen eight bases already. If he can be a .270 hitter with double-digit home runs, 30+ stolen bases and multi-positional eligibility—as his first 60 plate appearances are pointing to—it goes without saying that he would be a huge fantasy asset. Ideally, he is a mini clone of 2023 Tyler Black.

On the pitching side of things, the top four, or “one short of a pentaverate,” is made up of the cabal of Christian Scott, Cade Povich, Paul Skenes and a rejuvenated Jack Leiter. I expect all of these pitchers to make their MLB debuts this year and be key contributors in redraft leagues. In leagues where he hasn’t been drafted, expect $500+ in NFBC FAAB bidding for Paul Skenes when he debuts in the current armpocalypse wasteland. He’s only throwing three innings per outing—which creates some uncertainty in how much he’ll be let loose in the majors in 2024—but the numbers are clearly elite right now. The others aren’t too shabby either, with RoboScout expecting ERAs under 4.00 when they make their debuts. (Note that public projections will be lower on Jack Leiter on account of his struggles prior to these latest 14 innings).

Double A

On the mound, the top names per RoboScout—and some of these may pitch in the majors this year—are Ian Seymour (TBR), Yu-Min Lin (ARI), Drew Thorpe (CHW) and Caden Dana (LAA). For deeper leagues, a couple interesting names appear in the top eight: Tyler Woessner (MIL) and Ryan Bergert (SDP), two pitchers in their age-24 season who have strikeout rates around 40% and walk rates below 3%. We don’t have 2024 statcast data yet for Double-A, but in 2023, Bergert popped on the internal model with a 114 Stuff+ with a four-pitch mix.

The top hitters in Double-A so far in this young season are Emmanuel Rodriguez (MIN) with four home runs, four stolen bases and a 290 wRC+, Roman Anthony (BOS) with two home runs, two stolen bases as a 20-year-old, Agustin Ramirez (NYY) the 22-year-old catcher with six home runs in only 33 plate appearances and Carson Williams (TBR). The first name in the top 10 who might not be widely rostered in your dynasty leagues and who is showing an improved hit tool to complement his power-speed blend of athleticism is Colby Thomas (OAK), who has kept his strikeout rate below 18% while hitting four home runs and stealing three bags.

High-A

The top five in High-A are Ethan Salas (SDP), Jefferson Rojas (CHC), Carter Jensen (KCR, who was an honorable mention on my breakout list for 2024), Cam Collier (CIN) and Anyelo Encarnacion (STL). The least-heralded name, second baseman Encarnacion, may just be a temporary fixture at the top of the rankings as he has only 16 plate appearances and is being heavily buoyed by his 38% walk rate leading to a 333 wRC+. Last year, he did not have a better-than-average barrel rate, exit velocity or even contact rate, so we’ll only be keeping an eye on him for now until we can check under the hood. If you’re in a deep league, though, it might be worth a speculative bid if you have nothing to lose—after all, RoboScout is smarter than me and my skepticism that this isn’t anything other than a product of small sample sizes.

From the pitching side of things, the pentaverate is Sean Sullivan (COL), Noah Schultz (CHW), Calvin Ziegler (NYM), Jaden Hamm (DET) and Moises Chace (BAL). Hamm was one of Geoff Ponte’s breakout names and has a 45% strikeout rate with only a 3% walk rate. Brett Wichrowski (MIL) on my breakout list finds himself in the top 10 too.

Low-A

There are three Low-A pitchers who have separated themselves from the pack after two starts: Santiago Suarez (TBR) with a 47% strikeout rate and no walks over 10 innings, Charlee Soto (MIN) and George Klassen (PHI) who—and no, the record isn’t skipping—was on Geoff’s pitching breakout list (along with Landen Maroudis (TOR) who is seventh in Low-A). If any of these names are available in your league, I do not expect that to be the case next week.

In the batter’s box, the top seven names in Low-A are Colt Emerson (SEA), Juan Flores (a catcher for the Angels), Cristofer Torin (ARI), Yophery Rodriguez (another popular breakout outfielder name for the Brewers), Adrian Santana (TBR), Arjun Nimmala (TOR) and newly-acquired Dodger Zyhir Hope (LAD). It’s early and there will be a lot of volatility here, but I would roster any of these names—including the teenage catcher—in any leagues that roster 300 prospects.

So there you have it—a quick hit on what RoboScout sees thus far in the extremely young minor league season. Happy bidding!

But more often, when a top 10 pick like Josh Vitters (third pick in 2007), Donovan Tate (third pick in 2009), Bubba Starling (fifth pick, 2011) or Alex Jackson (sixth pick in 2014) gets sent to Low-A to begin their second full season, it’s an early warning sign that their hitting ability hasn’t lived up to pre-draft expectations.

Of the 140 high school position players who signed who were drafted in the top 30 picks between 2000 and 2019, 48 of them (34.3%) were sent to Low-A (or held back in extended spring) to start their second full pro season.

Considering it’s more than one in three prep first-round picks, it doesn’t seem all that unusual. The more common assignment is being sent to High-A, with 75 (53.6%) doing that. The standouts are those who were sent to Double-A. Only 17 (12.1%) were deemed that advanced.

It’s just one data point, and it’s one that doesn’t make any allowances for injuries, different development paces or anything else. But if you have just this one piece of information, it offers a very clear snapshot of a prospect’s long-term potential. The outcomes of those players are dramatically different depending on where they are sent.

Level	Players	Avg WAR	Median WAR	< -0.1 Career WAR	Didn’t Reach Majors
AA	17	24.3	15.6	0	0
HiA	75	8.0	3.3	16	12
LoA	48	1.8	-0.1	14	20

Players sent to Double-A are ticketed for stardom. Players who begin at High-A are a much more mixed bag. There are plenty of stars, a solid number of solid big leaguers and a number of players who never reach the majors.

But for first-round prep hitters who begin their second full pro season in Low-A, they are more likely to finish with a sub 0.0 career WAR or never reach the majors than they are to have a significant MLB career.

The 17 who started in Double-A two years after they were drafted included Mike Trout, Manny Machado, Joe Mauer, Prince Fielder, Adrian Gonzalez, B.J. Upton and Bobby Witt Jr. 

Every one of those 17 made the majors. The least productive of the group were still big leaguers with lengthy careers. Sergio Santos eventually converted to pitching and pitched as a reliever, while Delmon Young finished second in Rookie of the Year voting as a 21-year-old, but was out of the majors by the time he was 30. Them, Brett Lawrie and Colby Rasmus are the worst performers from a group filled with perennial all-stars. 

Among the High-A group, there are a number of stars. Carlos Correa, Christian Yelich, Justin Upton, Jason Heyward, Byron Buxton, Corey Seager, Kyle Tucker and Francisco Lindor all were players who were on the standard development track when their second full pro season began.

But there also are plenty of these players who go on to have up-and-down MLB careers or didn’t make it. Of the 75 players who started at High-A, 13 have posted 15+ bWAR for their career. Four had 10-15 bWAR, 30 had 0.0-9.9 bWAR. That left 30 who either didn’t post a 0.0 WAR or didn’t reach the majors.

When you get to the group sent to Low-A, the track record becomes much more dire. The long-term success stories are Nimmo, Hicks and Grichuk. Those are the three of 48 who have 10+ career bWAR. Delino DeShields Jr. had a few solid seasons after being a Rule 5 pick. Tyler Stephenson has had a solid career so far and is mid-career. Alex Kirilloff and Will Benson are early in their pro careers and could reach that level.

Yankees shortstop Anthony Volpe looks set to become a success story as well, but that one comes with a caveat. As a 2019 draftee, Volpe didn’t get to play in 2020 because of the cancellation of the MiLB season because of the coronavirus pandemic. That may have played a role in him beginning the 2021 season at Low-A.

Of the 48 sent to Low-A, 20 who have not reached the majors and another 14 have posted negative career WAR.

It’s too early to make any career comparisons for prep first-round position players taken since 2020, but here is a look at where those players were sent to begin their second full pro season. Much like the 2019 draft class, the 2020 class data could be affected by the lost 2020 covid season, which meant that players didn’t make their pro debut until 2021.

Player	Year	Pick	Level
Robert Hassell	2020	8	HiA
Zac Veen	2020	9	HiA
Austin Hendrick	2020	12	LoA
Ed Howard	2020	16	HiA
Nick Yorke	2020	17	HiA
Pete Crow-Armstrong	2020	19	LoA
Jordan Walker	2020	21	AA
Carson Tucker	2020	23	LoA
Tyler Soderstrom	2020	26	HiA
Marcelo Mayer	2021	4	HiA
Jordan Lawlar	2021	6	AA
Benny Montgomery	2021	8	HiA
Brady House	2021	11	LoA
Harry Ford	2021	12	HiA
Khalil Watson	2021	16	HiA
Colson Montgomery	2021	22	HiA
Max Muncy	2021	25	HiA
Jackson Merrill	2021	27	HiA
Carson Williams	2021	28	HiA
Jay Allen	2021	30	HiA
Jackson Holliday	2022	1	AAA
Druw Jones	2022	2	LoA
Termarr Johnson	2022	4	HiA
Elijah Green	2022	5	LoA
Jett Williams	2022	14	AA
Justin Crawford	2022	17	HiA
Cole Young	2022	21	AA
Xavier Isaac	2022	29	HiA

10 Statcast Standouts

James Wood, OF, Nationals

Rochester’s season got off to a slow start because of weather. We’ve finally gotten some games and a good sample size of data. The results are quite eye-popping. Wood is currently averaging 95.8 mph on 35 batted ball events, as well as an 90th percentile exit velocity of 108.7 mph, with a very manageable swinging strike rate of 13.8%, exceptional for a player that stands 6-foot-7. The only flaw in his profile this season is his 2.9 degree average launch angle, which may limit his home run output. Wood is currently batting .370/.500/.630 with more walks than strikeouts (12 to 11), along with five steals. He looks like he’ll force his way onto the Nationals’ MLB roster sooner rather than later.

Owen Caissie, CF, Cubs

In terms of Statcast metrics such as exit velos and launch angles, Caissie’s early-season performance is arguably more impressive than Wood’s. Let’s take a look at a couple of charts:

Red bubbles suggest players are generating launch angles geared for home run power, green bubbles indicate players who may be wasting their exit velos by hammering balls into the ground. Larger bubbles indicate a player who is young for the level.

Caissie is showing a tick more swing and miss and slightly less raw power than Wood, but he’s doing that while producing an almost ideal 17 degree launch angle, which may help him tap into more of his raw power than Wood. While this hasn’t yet translated into home runs this season, we wouldn’t be surprised to see the surface level results swing upwards soon. The strikeouts remain a concern, but he’s also walking at a decent clip, making him a classic “three true outcomes” type of hitter.

Max Muncy, SS, Athletics

We highlighted a selection of names in the two charts above, and the player that really pops is Max Muncy. He ranked as the No. 9 prospect in the A’s system entering the season and his preseason scouting report highlighted changes he made to simplify his approach and cut down on his strikeout rate. In the early going, Muncy is sporting an excellent 9.8% swinging strike rate, along with a very good 20.8% whiff rate, while posting MLB quality exit velos with optimal launch angles. He’s currently hitting .293/.396/.463 as a full-time shortstop in Triple-A and is the same age as Wood and Caissie. He looks like he may catapult himself up Oakland’s list, or hit his way onto the major league roster.

Joey Loperfido, Astros

The good news: Loperfido has a 1.324 OPS, powered by 10 home runs in just 14 games.

The bad news: He’s struck out 24 times already compared to nine walks.

If you refer to the chart above, you’ll see Loperfido near Muncy and Caminero, but he has a very small bubble as he’s much older than those players. Looking at the underlying metrics would suggest that Loperfido’s power output is real, albeit at a more reasonable level, while his strikeout rates look to be somewhat inflated. He could be playing his way into a stacked Astros lineup.

Jack Leiter, SP, Rangers

In our first Statcast Standouts piece, we highlighted Leiter’s first start of the season, which was very promising. His third start of the season on April 13 was perhaps even more impressive:

Leiter has a low release point, which shares a lot of similar traits to Jared Jones and Spencer Strider, and generated a lot of swing and misses with the fastball, as well as four whiffs with the slider. The fastball has elite pitch metrics, given the low release point, and an 87 mph slider with only 2.6 inches of IVB will usually grade out well, especially when paired with an elite fastball.

The challenge for Leiter is rounding out the arsenal beyond the fastball/slider pair, as he probably needs to find a third pitch before he can be relied upon to go five or more innings against a major league lineup. If not, he looks ready to grab a bullpen role down the stretch, and would likely thrive in a high-leverage role.

Dominic Hamel, RHP, Mets

Hamel’s IVB numbers are eye-popping, routinely getting 20 inches or more of IVB, which is elite at any arm angle. His 92-94 mph fastball has average velocity, but the ride will allow him to get a lot of whiffs, while potentially making him susceptible to the long ball. His sweeper gets almost 17 inches of sweep and has been good for a 29% swinging strike rate, along with a 60% whiff rate when batters offer at the pitch. The changeup has gotten whiffs and called strikes and looks like a viable third pitch. The cutter might be a good pitch for him if he can make it a true gyro slider, which would make him a five-pitch pitcher, as he can steal strikes with the curveball.

After a disastrous first start where he walked seven, Hamel struck out 10 batters in five innings, with only one walk. At age 25, he may not need a lot of time in Triple-A to force his way into the Mets rotation.

Jesus Baez, 3B/SS, Mets

We wrote about Josue Briceño last week, and he would indeed continue to be a Statcast Standout with exceptional exit velocities and minuscule swinging strike rates. Today, we’re going to highlight Baez, who’s sporting plus exit velos and pristine swinging strike rates, with a good chance to stay on the dirt. This jives with our preseason scouting report that described him as having exemplary bat speed and raw power. He’s sporting an .807 OPS in the early going with more walks (four) than strikeouts (three). Big arrow up for Baez in the early going.

Jonah Tong, RHP, Mets

Mets fans, if you want to get excited about a pitching prospect, let us introduce you to Jonah Tong, our second Canadian and third Mets prospect on this list. Even at 92-93 mph, his fastball is plus because it averages 20 inches of IVB. The filled bubbles in the chart above paint a good picture of just how much swing and miss the pitch is getting. What’s even more exciting is that he’s hit 97 mph with the pitch, which suggests he might have a lot more in the tank as he matures. This is a potentially double-plus pitch if his development breaks the right way.

He throws a cutter/gyro slider to righties, which has picked up a lot of whiffs but hasn’t been very consistent. There’s potential with the pitch if he can command it, and make it a true gyro slider, a pitch that usually pairs well with the high vert fastball. The curveball show promise as a good contact management and strike-stealing pitch. The changeup with its current shape probably won’t work, but he likely needs it to attack lefties. He’s still very raw, but the potential here is quite high, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him featured prominently on the Mets list (and possibly even the Top 100) by next season.

George Klassen, RHP, Phillies

Klassen, the Phillies’ No. 28 prospect entering the season, looks like a dynamic three-pitch pitcher in the early going. The fastball doesn’t have great ride, but it plays up given his very low arm angle, and 97.2 mph velo that touched 99.8 mph. It’s not a sure-fire top-shelf fastball the way Tong’s projects to be, however, Klassen looks to have an elite bullet slider, coming in at a blistering 91 mph with negative IVB, getting whiffs over 55% of the time. He also has a hard curve at 85-86 mph, which also gets lots of whiffs. When you have two elite breaking balls, the fastball only needs to be about average to be an effective pitcher. He’s dominating with mostly just the fastball, but will likely need to lean on his power breaking balls more as he moves up the ladder.

George Lombard Jr., SS, Yankees

Lombard doesn’t do anything super loud just yet, but he’s very young for Low-A and is already posting plus exit velos (105 mph 90th percentile exit velocity, 90 mph average exit velocity), with a somewhat concerning 38.9% whiff rate, which is higher than we’d like to see. However, he has tremendous patience, with 15 walks to 12 strikeouts. If he develops power as grows, he could be a three-true-outcome shortstop, with lots of home runs and great OBPs.

That was the case. Kjerstad’s $5.2 million signing bonus was nearly $2.6 million under the assigned slot value for the second overall pick ($7,789,900) and the biggest under slot deal of the 2020 draft. Below are the top 10 picks in the class:

Pick	Team	Player	Slot Value	Signing Bonus	Over/Under
1	DET	Spencer Torkelson	$8,415,300	$8,416,300	$1,000
2	BAL	Heston Kjerstad	$7,789,900	$5,200,000	-$2,589,900
3	MIA	Max Meyer	$7,221,200	$6,700,000	-$521,200
4	KC	Asa Lacy	$6,664,000	$6,670,000	$6,000
5	TOR	Austin Martin	$6,180,700	$7,000,825	$820,125
6	SEA	Emerson Hancock	$5,742,900	$5,700,000	-$42,900
7	PIT	Nick Gonzales	$5,432,400	$5,432,400	$0
8	SD	Robert Hassell	$5,176,900	$4,300,000	-$876,900
9	COL	Zac Veen	$4,949,100	$5,000,000	$50,900
10	LAA	Reid Detmers	$4,739,900	$4,670,000	-$69,900

Kjerstad’s bonus was the lowest of any player taken inside the first seven picks. That huge amount of savings was then put towards a pair of high upside prep players taken in the fourth and fifth rounds—third baseman Coby Mayo and righthander Carter Baumler.

Round	Pick	Player	Slot Value	Signing Bonus	Over/Under
1	2	Heston Kjerstad	$7,789,900	$5,200,000	-$2,589,900
1s	30	Jordan Westburg	$2,365,500	$2,365,500	$0
2	39	Hudson Haskin	$1,906,800	$1,906,800	$0
3	74	Anthony Servideo	$844,200	$950,000	$105,800
4	103	Coby Mayo	$565,600	$1,750,000	$1,184,400
5	133	Carter Baumler	$422,300	$1,500,000	$1,077,700

While Baumler has dealt with injury and has yet to pitch more than 17 innings in a season since being selected, Mayo has been an unqualified success. He currently ranks as the team’s No. 3 overall prospect and the 24th-best prospect in baseball. 

Kjerstad, meanwhile, is a top-50 prospect in his own right and currently looks like a much more impactful player than Martin, who was the consensus top player available on the board at the time of Baltimore’s No. 2 overall pick. Martin could still be a useful player. He’s in the big leagues with the Twins currently and entered the season as the team’s No. 9 prospect, but his lack of power might make him more of a utility type than the middle-of-the-order regular that Kjerstad projects to be.

The strategy with Cowser in the 2021 draft was the same. The 2021 class didn’t have a clear top prospect but instead a group of five players who the industry viewed as the clear top tier. A perfect situation for the Orioles, who just so happened to have the fifth overall pick in the draft. 

Four of the top five players in the class went with the first four picks. Rather than taking the No. 5 ranked player (Vanderbilt righthander Kumar Rocker) or any other player ranked inside the top 10, the Orioles selected Cowser, a mid major outfielder who ranked No. 11. He was viewed as one of the safer profiles in the class but more of a middle of the first round talent.

Once again the Orioles created big bonus pool savings with the pick:

Pick	Team	Player	Slot Value	Signing Bonus	Over/Under
1	PIT	Henry Davis	$8,415,300	$6,500,000	-$1,915,300
2	TEX	Jack Leiter	$7,789,900	$7,922,000	$132,100
3	DET	Jackson Jobe	$7,221,200	$6,900,000	-$321,200
4	BOS	Marcelo Mayer	$6,664,000	$6,664,000	$0
5	BAL	Colton Cowser	$6,180,700	$4,900,000	-$1,280,700
6	ARI	Jordan Lawlar	$5,742,900	$6,713,300	$970,400
7	KC	Frank Mozzicato	$5,432,400	$3,547,500	-$1,884,900
8	COL	Benny Montgomery	$5,176,900	$5,000,000	-$176,900
9	LAA	Sam Bachman	$4,949,100	$3,847,500	-$1,101,600
10	NY	Kumar Rocker	$4,739,900	Did not sign	–

This time the Orioles didn’t have multiple $1 million-plus over slot deals to hand out and they didn’t exclusively use big savings on high school prospects, but they still had a pair of $500,000 or more over slot deals on day two and four over-slot deals in total: 

Round	Overall Pick	Player	Slot Value	Signing Bonus	Over/Under
1	5	Colton Cowser	$6,180,700	$4,900,000	-$1,280,700
2	41	Connor Norby	$1,813,500	$1,700,000	-$113,500
2s	65	Reed Trimble	$1,025,100	$800,000	-$225,100
3	76	John Rhodes	$818,200	$1,375,000	$556,800
4	106	Donta Williams	$549,000	$400,000	-$149,000
5	137	Carlos Tavera	$406,000	$375,000	-$31,000
6	167	Collin Burns	$304,200	$375,000	$70,800
7	197	Connor Pavolony	$237,000	$325,000	$88,000
8	227	Creed Willems	$187,700	$1,000,000	$812,300
9	257	Ryan Higgins	$159,700	$159,700	$0
10	287	Billy Cook	$148,200	$100,000	-$48,200

To this point none of the players targeted for over slot deals have panned out the same way that Mayo has. None of Creed Willems, Connor Pavolony or Collin Burns currently rank inside the team’s top 30 prospects. John Rhodes showed a big improvement in exit velocity in 2023 and ranks as the team’s No. 26 prospect but doesn’t look like an impact regular quite yet.

Still, the 2021 class hammers home the way Baltimore has liked to navigate the draft. In fact, even with the team’s No. 1 overall pick of Jackson Holliday in 2022 they saved $656,900 in bonus pool money. Holliday signed for an $8.19 million bonus that was roughly the same as what Druw Jones signed for ($8.189 million) at slot value for the second pick.

While Holliday is the most prominent example of Baltimore’s rebuild and success at the top of the draft, players like Cowser and Kjerstad also serve as excellent examples of Baltimore’s willingness to go in non-obvious directions with first round picks that create bonus pool flexibility and also just look like the correct calls in terms of pure talent years later.

In 2023 the Orioles moved off their under-slot strategy by signing Enrique Bradfield to a slot deal with the 17th overall pick. Will they stick with that sort of strategy in 2024 when they pick 22nd overall—the lowest they have picked since 2016—or will they try and replicate the portfolio approach that has served them so well? 

We’ll see on draft day. But if Baltimore again throws a curveball with their first overall pick it’ll be hard to question them.

2. Kyle Stowers, OF, Orioles

Team: Triple-A Norfolk (International)
Age: 26

Why He’s Here: .308/.357/.962 (8-for-26), 7 R, 2 2B, 5 HRs, 12 RBIs, 1 BB, 4 SO.

The Scoop: Stowers is the Orioles’ Triple-A outfielder facing the most pressing questions about where he fits in their long-term plans. He first reached Triple-A in 2021, then reached the majors in 2022. He now has 825 Triple-A plate appearances with 45 Triple-A home runs. He’s been exceptional in 2024, but it’s hard to figure out how that translates into a significant role in Baltimore barring injuries. Colton Cowser is in Baltimore serving as a lefthanded hitting outfielder who can play all three spots. Stowers is effectively blocked by a similar, younger player who is viewed as having a higher ceiling. If you view Stowers as a corner outfielder, Kjerstad fits the same niche and is also younger. All Stowers can do is continue to produce and carve out a role somewhere in the majors, whether as a call-up or trade piece. (JJ)

He's done it! @KyleStowers breaks the Orioles affiliate franchise career home run record with his 43rd! #RisingTide https://t.co/LjjUzeHmy3 pic.twitter.com/P62NY6iFcW

— Norfolk Tides (@NorfolkTides) April 4, 2024

3. Connor Norby, OF, Orioles

Team: Triple-A Norfolk (International)
Age: 23

Why He’s Here: .393/.455/.821 (11-for-28) 11 R, 3 2B, 3 HR, 10 RBIs, 3 BB, 9 SO

The Scoop: Speaking of roster log jams, Norby is yet another outfielder trying to hit his way to a role in Baltimore. He hasn’t thrown away his infielder’s mitt. But with Jackson Holliday playing second base most days in Norfolk, Norby has become a corner outfielder who can slide back to second base as needed. Norby’s bat should be good enough to handle the switch, and so far, he’s looked reasonably comfortable in the outfield. He did sail a throw well over the catcher on one throw home, but generally he’s making the routine plays in the outfield while mashing at the plate. (JJ)

4. Coby Mayo, 3B, Orioles

Team: Triple-A Norfolk (International)
Age: 22

Why He’s Here: .407/.500/.630 (11-for-27) 6 R, 1 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 3 RBIs, 4 BB, 10 SO, 1 SB.

The Scoop: To the best of our collective memory, we’ve never had this happen before where the top four players on a Prospect Hot Sheet all came from the same team. The three-game abbreviated schedule for Double-A, High-A and Low-A played a role, but Norfolk’s utter dominance this week is the driving factor. Norfolk has 29 home runs in nine games this year. No other MiLB team has more than 14. As a team, the Tides are hitting .343/.433/.671. Mayo has been one of the linchpins of the Tides’ dominance. He’s hitting more for average than power so far, but don’t worry about whether the power will come: he has three of the 20 hardest-hit balls in Triple-A this year. (JJ)

5. Sean Sullivan, LHP, Rockies 

Team: High-A Spokane (Northwest)
Age: 21

Why He’s Here: 0-0, 0.00, 6 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 13 SO, 0 HR

The Scoop: Sullivan has found success wherever he’s pitched over his last three seasons. From his freshman season in the Big Ten with Northwestern, to his summer on the Cape, to his sophomore year at Wake Forest, Sullivan has thrown strikes, gotten outs and missed bats. He’s a low-slot lefthander with a 6-foot-4 starter’s frame and unique fastball traits. In Sullivan’s High-A debut, the lefty dominated Vancouver over six innings, striking out 13 while generating 22 swinging strikes in the effort. While Sullivan doesn’t stand out for his velocity, his sidearm slot and flat fastball plane create deception. (GP)

6. Cade Povich, LHP, Orioles

Team: Triple-A Norfolk (International)
Age: 23

Why He’s Here: 1-0, 0.82, 2 GS, 11 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 3 BB, 9 SO

The Scoop: Povich was nearly as dominant as the Tides’ bats as he cruised through Charlotte’s lineup in two starts this week. Surviving at Truist Field isn’t easy, but Povich stayed away from hard contact by keeping Knights’ hitters guessing at what was coming. Povich now has a very varied arsenal with a low-90s fastball, a sweepy slider, a slower, bigger curveball, a changeup and a cutter. It’s a great way to force hitters to defend the whole plate. (JJ)

Cade Povich was dealing last night

6.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 5 K pic.twitter.com/cEEkVszXFN

— Orioles Player Development (@OsPlayerDev) April 3, 2024

7. Jack Leiter, RHP, Rangers

Team: Triple-A Round Rock (Pacific Coast)
Age: 23

Why He’s Here: 1-0, 3.24, 8.1 IP, 5 H, 4 R, 3 ER, 3 BB, 15 SO, 1 HR

The Scoop: After nearly two full seasons in Double-A, Leiter moved to Triple-A at the end of the 2023 season and opened back at the level this season. So far, so good. His first outing was excellent, and saw him finish with nine strikeouts and no walks over five two-hit innings. The walk total is the most notable figure, considering he had just one start in all of 2023 without issuing a free pass. Leiter’s second outing was a bit more uneven, with three walks and six strikeouts in 3.1 innings. Overall, Leiter has thrown 89 strikes in 143 pitches this season, good for a 62.2% clip, more than 6% better than the rate he produced at the level in 2023. (JN) 

8. Jackson Holliday, 2B/SS, Orioles

Team: Triple-A Norfolk (International)
Age: 20

Why He’s Here: .333/.543/.542 (8-for-24), 12 R, 2 2B, 1 HR, 4 RBIs, 10 BB, 6 SO, 1 SB.

The Scoop: Holliday reached base in well over half of his plate appearances this week. He walked more times this week than all but three Triple-A players this season, and he hit line drives all over the field. And that ranks him sixth among Norfolk Tides on this week’s Hot Sheet. It was that kind of week for Norfolk. (JJ)

9. Paul Skenes, RHP, Pirates

Team: Triple-A Indianapolis (International)
Age: 21

Why He’s Here: 0-0, 0.00, 6 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 11 SO, 0 HR

The Scoop: The reigning No. 1 overall pick is doing No. 1 overall pick things. After showcasing his wicked arsenal in short bursts all spring, he is overpowering hitters with triple-digit heat and then snatching their souls with filthy breaking balls. Eleven of his 18 outs this season have come on strikeouts, and he’s got 19 whiffs over the course of both outings. It shouldn’t be long before he’s on the mound in Pittsburgh for his big league debut. (JN)

10. Jordan Beck, OF, Rockies

Team: Triple-A Albuquerque (Pacific Coast)
Age: 22

Why He’s Here: .321/.444/.786 (9-for-28), 7 R, 2 2B, 1 3B, 3 HR, 9 RBIs, 7 BB, 11 SO, 0-for-0 SB

The Scoop: It was easy to see coming into the season that the combination of Beck’s plus power and the hitting happy parks of the Pacific Coast League would yield eye-popping stats. In Albuquerque’s first two series of the year, Beck has hits in six of eight games, and had reached base in every game. Beck hit three home runs over that time and has accumulated six total extra-base hits. The ball has jumped off Beck’s bat so far. He now has four games with two or more balls in play recorded at 100 mph or higher, and has two recorded hits at 108 mph or higher. Beck could hit his way into the Rockies lineup sometime early this summer. (GP)

11. Caleb Durbin, 2B, Yankees

Team: Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre (International)
Age: 24

Why He’s Here: .464/.579/.786 (13-for-28), 6 R, 4 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 14 RBIs, 8 BB, 2 SO, 7-for-7 SB

The Scoop: The Yankees acquired Durbin from the Braves after the 2022 season in a trade that sent Lucas Luetge to Atlanta. He compiled a .395 on-base percentage in his first year in the Yankees organization in 2023 and then led the Arizona Fall League with 21 stolen bases. Durbin climbed to Triple-A this season and is off to a hot start with five multi-hit games in his first eight. As a 5-foot-6, righthanded-hitting second baseman, he will need to continue hitting and continue mixing in starts at third base and shortstop to get an MLB look. (ME)

12. Joey Loperfido, OF, Astros

Team: Triple-A Sugar Land (Pacific Coast)
Age: 24

Why He’s Here: .258/.306/.742 (8-for-31), 7 R, 0 2B, 0 3B, 5 HR, 11 RBIs, 3 BB, 14 SO, 1-for-1 SB

The Scoop: Loperfido was one of bigger standouts from spring training, and he’s carried a lot of that start into the season. He doesn’t have a particular standout tool, but he does so many things well enough that he should reach the big leagues at some point this season. Loperfido earned placement on this list thanks to his power output, which places him second in the minor leagues. He had one wipeout game where he struck out six times in as many at-bats, but otherwise he’s been excellent in the early going. (JN)

13. Keider Montero, RHP, Tigers

Team: Triple-A Toledo (International)
Age: 23

Why He’s Here: 0-0, 0.00, 8 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 4 BB, 10 SO, 0 HR

The Scoop: After six seasons with the Tigers, Montero pitched his way onto the 40-man roster in 2023. Now, Montero is very much in the short and long-term plans of the Tigers. Montero hasn’t allowed a run over two starts with Triple-A Toledo. He’s been heavy with his fastball usage, throwing the pitch over 60% of the time. There’s good reason behind it, as the pitch sits 95-96 mph touching 97 mph with ride. He mixes a slider, curveball and changeup. Montero has relief risk but has continued to see success as a starter. (GP)

14. Noah Schultz, LHP, White Sox

Team: High-A Winston-Salem (South Atlantic)
Age: 20

Why He’s Here: 0-0, 0.00, 4 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 10 SO, 0 HR

The Scoop: Much like Lord Finesse, Schultz is nasty, period. The lefthander flummoxed the competition in all but one of his outings last season, and so far health is the only roadblock he’s faced. He established a new career high in his first turn of 2024 by striking out 10 Asheville hitters over the course of four shutout frames. The spindly southpaw carves the opposition with three fantastic pitches, the gem of which is his absolutely disgusting slider that can be poison to lefties and righties alike. If he can stay healthy this year, he has a chance to move very quickly through the minors. (JN)

15. Walter Pennington, LHP, Royals

Team: Triple-A Omaha (Pacific Coast)
Age: 25

Why He’s Here: 2-0, 0.00, 2 GS, 4.1 IP, 1 H, 1 BB, 5 SO

The Scoop: We highlighted Pennington on our spring training Hot Sheet when he stood out as a dominating reliever against big league hitters. Pennington has carried that success over into the regular season. He’s struck out 10 of 25 batters he’s faced so far. He’s walked two, given up one single and one double. Pennington doesn’t light up a radar gun, but his low-three quarters arm slot makes his slider an extremely tough pitch for lefties to handle, and he has developed a cutter to battle righthanders. Pennington looks like he could help the Royals’ big league bullpen at some point this year. (JJ)

16. Nick Gonzales, 2B, Pirates 

Team: Triple-A Indianapolis (International)
Age: 24

Why He’s Here: .405/.463/.595 (15-for-37), 11 R, 4 2B, 0 3B, 1 HR, 5 RBIs, 4 BB, 7 SO, 0-for-1 SB

The Scoop: It’s been a rocky few years for the No. 7 overall pick in the 2020 draft as his strikeout rate has skyrocketed. Gonzales seems to have gotten his swing right heading into the season. He now has hits in eight of Indianapolis’ first nine games and has six multi-hit games already this season. Gonzales has flashed some power too, with three games already with multiple balls in play above 100 mph. If Gonzales can find a happy medium between his natural hitting ability and power, he has a chance to be a resurgent post-hype candidate. (GP)

17. Dustin Harris, OF, Rangers

Team: Triple-A Round Rock (Pacific Coast)

Age: 24

Why He’s Here: .310/.344/.655 (9-for-29), 5 R, 1 2B, 0 3B, 3 HR, 5 RBIs, 1 BB, 5 SO, 2-for-2 SB

The Scoop: Harris is one of the Rangers’ best remaining prospects in the minor leagues. Where he plays defensively is an open question—he’s played third base and left field this season—but his value will likely predominantly come from what he does in the batter’s box. In the early days of the season, he’s found plenty of success in that regard. He clubbed three home runs—including one of inside-the-park variety—accounting for a third of his hits for the season. He’s primed to make his debut at some point this year. (JN)

18. Adrian Del Castillo, C, D-backs

Team: Triple-A Reno (Pacific Coast)
Age: 24

Why He’s Here: .412/.444/1.059 (7-for-17), 8 R, 2 2B, 0 3B, 3 HR, 5 RBIs, 1 BB, 4 SO

The Scoop: If the gains Del Castillo showed in spring training are real, then he might stand as yet another lesson in patience in player development. The Miami alum’s stock took a tumble in his draft year both for his lack of defensive certainty and for an offensive performance that didn’t live up to his reputation. His minor league career has largely been nondescript as well, but scouts this spring reported a rejuvenated bat and glovework that has improved enough that he could be in line for his debut at some point this season. (JN)

19. Landon Knack, RHP, Dodgers

Team: Triple-A Oklahoma City (Pacific Coast)
Age: 26

Why He’s Here: 0-0, 3.60, 10 IP, 8 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 2 BB, 10 SO, 1 HR

The Scoop: Knack broke camp with the Dodgers, even after he was optioned to Triple-A early in camp. He returned to Triple-A Oklahoma City when the team returned from Korea. While Knack awaits his next opportunity in the major leagues, he’s performed well over two starts with Oklahoma City. While Knack hasn’t shown overpowering stuff, he generates whiffs with his fastball, slider, curveball and changeup. Knack’s ability to land a variety of shapes and move the ball around the zone is his bread and butter. (GP)

20. Jonah Tong, RHP, Mets

Team: Low-A St. Lucie (Florida State)
Age: 20

Why He’s Here: 0-0, 0.00, 4.1 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 11 SO, 0 HR

The Scoop: Tong is a native Canadian who transferred to Georgia Premier Academy as a high school senior in 2022. The Mets drafted him in the seventh round, attracted to his riding fastball properties and athletic delivery. This is the first season in which Tong has broken camp with an affiliate, and his first appearance for St. Lucie was a promising one. He struck out 11 Daytona batters in 4.1 innings using a 92-94 mph fastball and mid-80s cutter as his primary out pitches. Tong also got whiffs with a curveball and changeup. (ME)

HELIUM PICKS

Zyhir Hope, OF, Dodgers

Team: Low-A Rancho Cucamonga (California)
Age: 19

Why He’s Here: .417/.533/.533 (5-for-12), 5 R, 1 2B, 3 HR, 5 RBIs, 3 BB, 3 SO, 1-for-1 SB

The Scoop: The Dodgers added Hope and Jackson Ferris in the January trade that shipped Michael Busch to the Cubs. Chicago had drafted Hope out of high school in the 11th round last year and paid him $400,000, the equivalent of fifth-round money. He has outstanding speed and quick hands that helped him crush three early home runs in California League play, including one with a 113 mph exit velocity. The power is real. If Hope hits, he could take off as a prospect. (ME)

Landen Maroudis, RHP, Blue Jays 

Team: Low-A Dunedin (Florida State)
Age: 19

Why He’s Here: 1-0, 0.00, 4 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 5 SO, 0 HR

The Scoop: Just a few miles down the road from his childhood home and his high school alma mater, Landen Maroudis made his professional debut. The scheduled starter for Sunday’s game Maroudis was moved back to four innings in relief in lieu of an Alek Manoah rehab appearance. With Dunedin down 7-4 Maroudis entered the game in the sixth and quieted the roar of the Lakeland Flying Tigers. Over four perfect innings Maroudis struck out five, touched 96.4 mph and sat 94.5 mph, mixing in a slider at 85 mph and a low-80s curveball. During the spring, Maroudis impressed on the backfields for his combination of present stuff, projection and pitchability. The fourth rounder could be a potential mover this season. (GP)

Coby Mayo, 3B, Orioles

The primary traits to evaluate prospects in the minors include age relative to level, whiff rates, patience, exit velocities and the ability to elevate the ball. Coby Mayo checks every single one of these boxes. Check out the two graphs below.

His 109.5 mph 90th percentile exit velocity would place him at the very top end of major league baseball (80-grade power), and he’s doing it while elevating the ball, averaging a 12-degree launch angle (it was higher before dropping a bit on Sunday). He’s also young for the level, giving him lots of time to develop and already elite skill set. Mayo might be a tad overlooked given Norfolk is stacked, but he’s hitting like a top 5-10 prospect in the early going. Jackson Holliday is two years younger, so it’s not an apples-to-apples comparison, but Mayo is hitting the ball much harder than Holliday, with more loft and much less swing and miss.

Paul Skenes, RHP, Pirates

For the second consecutive start, Skenes averaged 101 mph with his fastball, and it returned a 47% whiff rate and 32% swinging strike percentage, destroying batters up in the zone. The pitch is so good he barely used his other pitches, which didn’t get very many whiffs in his second start, but they all have promising traits. It is this author’s opinion that he should be using those pitches more while he’s in Triple-A, but I get that he just wants to show the world that he shouldn’t be wasting bullets in Triple-A. Can’t wait to see him mow down major league hitters with his “dead zone” fastball.

Addison Barger, INF, Blue Jays

The Jays have Barger playing third base and right field this season, setting him up to be a Ben Zobrist type of playe who can play all over the field. He’s off to a good start, hitting .290/.405/.484. We really like how Barger is comfortably situated in our Baseball America Magic Quadrant, hitting the ball hard with very little swing and miss. He’s been doing that for a while, prioritizing hard line drive contact. His 70-grade raw power indicated by his 90th percentile exit velocity probably plays closer to 55 or 60 given the launch angles, but it’s average to plus contact and power with oodles of defensive versatility. He looks major league ready and should be a nice addition to the Jays lineup pretty soon.

Tyler Soderstrom, C, Athletics

Soderstrom is performing almost as well as Mayo in terms of his hitting traits, with a little less power, a little more swing and miss, but more loft. He’s also playing catcher full-time this season, so the Athletics may keep him down in Triple-A for a bit to (not save money of course) work on his defense. Ignore the .148 batting average, Soderstrom can mash and should be a good big league hitter, and will be even more valuable if he can be even a serviceable major league catcher.

Josue Briceño, C, Tigers

Briceño currently ranks No. 18 in the Tigers system, but he looks poised to shoot up Detroit’s Top 30. I believe he could even crack a Top 100 list next season. It’s very early, but Briceño is already showing plus plus raw power, with a pristine 5.5% swinging strike percentage and just a 12.5% whiff rate, which is incredibly low in general, but absolutely elite when you can impact the ball as hard as he does.

He’s played more at first than at catcher in the early going, but he’s definitely got the bat to profile at first. If he can hold his own at catcher, the sky is the limit, especially if he can learn to lift the ball. Players with this level of contact ability, paired with this level of exit velocity, are extremely, extremely, extremely rare. If I had a rocket ship emoji rating for Briceno, it would have 80 of them.

Yeral Martinez, RF, Marlins

Yeral has the hardest hit batted ball in the Florida State League and the second hardest in the minors from the limited data set publicly available. One sample does not make the batter, but a 112.6 mph max exit velocity indicates plus raw power, and he got to it with a 15-degree launch angle. We’ll need a lot more of this to buy in, but he’s worth monitoring if he can continue to impact the ball at the elite level that he has in his first FSL weekend. He’s repeating the level, so we may not get too much data, as he may get moved up soon.

Tobias Myers, RHP, Brewers

The Guardians acquired Myers for Junior Caminero a few years ago. Since then, he’s bounced around multiple rosters thanks to control troubles. The Brewers appear to have figured out how to get the most out of his lively fastball.

Last season, he had a 5.00 ERA despite a very respectable 168 strikeouts in 137 innings at Double-A Biloxi. In his second year in the Brewers organization, he’s stepped it up a notch, looking like this:

8 strikeouts thru 5 innings for Tobias Myers! pic.twitter.com/i9rvnv7ETr

— Nashville Sounds (@nashvillesounds) April 7, 2024

In his first start of the season, Myers averaged a pedestrian 92.8 mph with his fastball, but it had elite carry at 20.1 inches of IVB. Given the release height and velo, that graded out as roughly an average pitch. On Saturday, he dialed it up to 94.3 mph, while maintaining 20 inches of vert, inducing 12 whiffs on the pitch, in zone and out of zone. More importantly, he filled up the zone with the pitch, and combined with the bat-missing vert, presents a very solid base to build around.

It appears the Brewers had him focus on his cutter as his primary secondary, coming in at 89 mph, with good separation off the fastball and has the potential to be a good contact quality management pitch that gets a decent number of whiffs. He mixes in a gyro slider with promising traits and good results so far (21.1% swinging strike percentage), as well as a curve and changeup that don’t project as well.

If the fastball, cutter and slider are as good as they’ve been in this short sample, Myers could join the Brewers rotation soon. He’s fully built up, has been shouldering a starter’s workload for almost eight seasons in the minors and looks like he could slide in to any rotation and be productive. I love rooting for the guys who have been grinding in the minors for almost a decade. Here’s hoping he gets to achieve his dream soon.

Thomas White, LHP, Marlins

Thomas White is quite popular here at Baseball America, featuring in a bevy of breakout articles by Matt Eddy, Geoff Pontes, Josh Norris’ Bible, and JJ Cooper. I’m ready to join the party after taking a peek at his FSL pitch data.

White, a 6-foot-5 lefty, isn’t your typical projectable prep pitcher, as his fastball already has present plus traits, averaging 95.2 and touching 97.6 with good, but not great, 17 inches of IVB, which is slightly above-average given the release point. This is an absolutely phenomenal base from which to build out a repertoire, and, in this author’s opinion, his fastball projects as a much better pitch than what Noble Meyer showed in his first outing.

The most important thing for a starting pitcher prospect is having a strong fastball, as that provides a strong floor for performance. The fastball as it stands now would probably be a roughly major league quality pitch in terms of shape, and could be elite with natural gains in velo and ride. I’m not a fan of either the slider (probably a curve) nor the changeup, despite the early success. Given other pitchers with his type of fastball, I’d say he’s a good candidate for a gyro slider. He’s got lots of time to build out his arsenal, and is in an org that has shown success at developing pitchers.

Quinn Mathews, LHP, Cardinals

Mathews’ preseason scouting report described his fastball sitting 90-92 mph with above-average ride. His stuff appeared to take a jump in his first outing of the season. His fastball sat 92-94 mph and touched 96. Mathews threw his four-seam fastball 25 times, getting eight whiffs on 10 swings. But what’s more intriguing is the 18.5 inches of IVB from a low 5.6-foot release height, giving him almost three inches more ride than a typical pitcher will get from that arm slot.

He mixes in a two-seam fastball shape with almost as much ride and about five inches more run. I’m not sure if this is a pitch classification issue, or if he really is throwing two fastball shapes. He complements the fastballs with a true gyro slider with only 1.3 inches of IVB, and it should pair very well with the high vert fastballs. He mixed in a curveball and a changeup as well, showing the potential for a five-pitch mix, and was able to steal strikes with the curveball, though that may not persist as he moves up the ladder. We’ll need a large sample size, and Mathews did walk five batters in 3.1 innings, but if he continues to show this stuff, he’s a name to watch in their system.

Chen-Wei Lin, RHP, Cardinals

We close out this list with a 6-foot-7 righty from Taiwan. There’s limited info on Lin given he never pitched stateside, but his first start of the season may be a precursor for a big rise. It’s rare to have never heard of a pitcher and then have those “holy crap” moments when doing research. He’s 6-foot-7? Averages 97.4 mph with his fastball? He topped out at 100? The shape isn’t spectacular, getting only 15-16 inches of vert, but this is a special arm.

He throws a true bullet slider with almost no IVB or horizontal break, but he doesn’t yet get the velo that pairs well with the fastball. If he can find a much firmer version of the pitch, closer to 88 mph, it could be an elite four-seam fastball/slider mix. The changeup isn’t particularly great at the moment.

Lin may be a prime candidate for the Yankees special—the sinker/sweeper combo—which could give him three distinct pitches if he can also throw the gyro slider. There’s a lot of development to go here, but that’s the type of arm you can dream on.