The Orioles’ homegrown middle infield of shortstop Gunnar Henderson and second baseman Jackson Holliday will be together for a long time. 

Henderson won American League Rookie of the Year last year and is under Baltimore club control through 2028. 

Holliday is a favorite to win ROY this year—though the AL class is deep with the Rangers’ duo of Evan Carter and Wyatt Langford and the Rays’ Junior Caminero—and will be tied to the Orioles through the 2029 season.

Long before that point, Henderson and Holliday may establish a new precedent.

The post Orioles’ Double-Play Combo Of Gunnar Henderson and Jackson Holliday Truly Are Rare Birds appeared first on College Baseball, MLB Draft, Prospects - Baseball America.

The Orioles (8-4) host the Brewers (8-3) Friday night at Camden Yards. That sets the stage for baseball’s No. 1 prospect, Jackson Holliday, to make his home debut against baseball’s No. 2 prospect, Brewers outfielder Jackson Chourio. 

In addition to being baseball’s two best prospects, the 20-year-olds are also baseball’s two youngest players. Padres outfielder Jackson Merrill (yes, another Jackson) is the third youngest. Yes, the Jackson Era is officially upon us. 

Both Holliday and Chourio are Rookie of the Year candidates and squarely at the forefront of a deep class. Here’s how each has fared so far in their limited big league sample size. 

Jackson Holliday

Holliday made his big league debut on Wednesday and still seeks his first big league hit. He’s 0-for-8 so far, but has scored a pair of runs and notched his first RBI in his debut, a 7-5 Orioles win. A shortstop in the minors, Holliday is settling into second base in Baltimore. 

Related Jackson Holliday content

• Sights and scenes from Holliday’s debut
• Future Projection pod breaks down Holliday’s big league promotion
• Why the Orioles chose now to promote their No. 1 prospect 

Jackson Holliday Preseason Scouting Report 

Scouting Report: Holliday’s elite offensive skill set showed as he climbed to Triple-A as a 19-year-old, with a plus-plus hit tool and at least plus plate discipline. Those qualities allow him to control the strike zone and make consistent, high-quality contact. After a fair share of weak fly outs in his 2022 pro debut, Holliday sharpened his ball flight to more consistently hit crisp line drives to all fields in 2023.

Holliday had a 45.5% hard-hit rate, up from 34.6% in his pro debut, while increasing his 90th percentile exit velocity from 99.4 mph to 102.5. His continued physical maturation could help him develop above-average power, but if not he will be a doubles machine because of the quality of his contact. He has demonstrated an ability to backspin the ball and give it extra carry. The Orioles were impressed with the way he tapped into his pull-side power as the season went on, and Holliday didn’t sacrifice his all-fields approach to get to that.

A gifted athlete who demonstrates the instincts of a baseball lifer both on and off the field, Holliday is loose and fluid at shortstop with the potential to be at least a plus shortstop and potentially a plus-plus second baseman, should the Orioles’ infield situation call for such a move. He’s a quick study defensively, can play one-handed, and has an advanced clock that means he doesn’t rush throws and often delivers them on time and on target. Holliday is a plus runner who was successful on 24 of 33 stolen base attempts in 2023 and shows good instincts on the basepaths. He also has elite makeup, handling the pressures of his prospect status and expectations as well as anyone the Orioles have had in that position.

To see Holliday’s full scouting report plus the Top 30 prospects in Baltimore’s system, click here. 

Jackson Chourio

Chourio is hitting .282/.326/.462 with a pair of homers through 10 games while manning right field for the Brewers. He’s also stolen a pair of bases. He isn’t hitting the ball with overwhelming oomph so far—and he’s struck out 13 times to three walks in 43 plate appearances—but his speed and defense have made an instant impact. 

While Holliday ultimately overtook Chourio in our Top 100, the Brewers outfielder did once rank as baseball’s No. 1 prospect. After signing an eight-year, $82 million contract in the offseason, Chourio looks like the future face of Milwaukee’s franchise. 

Related Jackson Chourio content 

• Chourio was the youngest player on an Opening Day roster
• He is not PPI eligible. We explain why here. 

Jackson Chourio Preseason Scouting Report 

Scouting Report: Hitters in the Double-A Southern League were at a disadvantage in the first half, when MLB experimented with a pre-tacked ball that led to more extreme pitch movements and higher whiff rates. Through July 6, Chourio hit .239/.304/.410 with 11 home runs in 71 games with a 7% walk rate and 21% strikeout rate. After that—when the Southern League reverted to the traditional baseball—Chourio hit .323/.380/.544 in 51 games with 11 home runs, an 8% walk rate and a 14% strikeout rate before a mid-September promotion to Triple-A Nashville. How much of those splits were because of the baseball itself or a 19-year-old making adjustments and getting more comfortable during the season was a wide topic of discussion inside and outside the organization.

What’s clear is that Chourio is an electric talent with standout tools and skills at a premium position. His explosiveness is evident in his bat speed, which helps him drive the ball out to any part of the park. He has plus-plus raw power and is content letting the ball travel deep and hammering the ball to right-center field, with more than half of his home runs going to center or right field. Chourio is a good hitter who doesn’t swing and miss much at pitches in the strike zone, though he will need to tighten up his plate discipline. He’s not a free-swinger, and he did chase less as the season progressed, but continued improvement with his swing decisions will be critical for him to achieve his potential.

A plus-plus runner, Chourio has the speed, acceleration and lateral range to be an above-average defender in center field. He’s still learning to finish plays at the wall consistently, but his reads and routes have all improved since getting more full-time reps in center field. Chourio had an issue with his right elbow as an amateur and has a fringe-average arm that is his lightest tool.

To see Chourio’s full scouting report plus the Top 30 prospects in Milwaukee’s system, click here.

The post Jackson Holliday vs. Jackson Chourio: Orioles, Brewers Series Features MLB’s Top Prospects appeared first on College Baseball, MLB Draft, Prospects - Baseball America.

The game’s top prospect joined No. 1 overall prospects Gunnar Henderson and Adley Rutschman on the big league club less than two years after being drafted. Now the trio will form an exceptional core that should help the Orioles compete in the AL East for the foreseeable future. 

We’ve written and talked about how the Holliday pick for the Orioles at 1-1 in the 2022 draft wasn’t the draft day no-brainer that Adley Rutschman was for the club in 2019. But other picks also highlight Baltimore and Mike Elias’s savvy—and money-saving—top-of-the-draft selections. Perhaps none more than 2021 and 2020 first rounders Colton Cowser and Heston Kjerstad. 

Cowser made the Orioles opening day roster and just last night was instrumental in the team’s 9-4 extra-inning win over the Red Sox. He went 3-for-5 with his first and second homers of his big league career and through 11 games is slashing .458/.462/.917 with seven extra-base hits. 

Kjerstad is still knocking on the door with Triple-A Norfolk, but led our first Hot Sheet of the season and has exploded out of the gate with six home runs in his first 11 games and a .413/.500/.891 slash line. Were he with another organization he might have begun the season with a big league team like Cowser did.

Cowser was the fifth overall pick in the 2021 draft. Kjerstad was picked second overall in 2020. Neither picks were consensus selections on draft day and both ranked just outside of the top 10 in their respective draft classes. Several years later, both look like excellent picks and also had the benefit of creating more bonus pool flexibility for the team to use on subsequent picks. 

The Kjerstad selection in 2020 is perhaps the best example. The 2020 draft was as difficult as any class for teams to evaluate given the shortened season in the middle of the covid pandemic. The Tigers took No. 1 draft prospect Spencer Torkelson with the first overall pick and the Orioles went off the board for Kjerstad at No. 2. We ranked Kjerstad as the No. 13 prospect in the draft class and expected him to be selected more in the middle of the first round than at the very top.

On draft day I wrote that the Blue Jays could potentially be one of the day one winners after getting No. 2 prospect Austin Martin with the fifth overall pick. In the same piece I wrote that the Orioles threw a curveball with their Kjerstad selection, noted his power and also the fact that it felt like a potential under-slot move that could allow them to be aggressive on day two. 

The post Colton Cowser, Heston Kjerstad Highlight Orioles’ Top-Of-The-Draft Strategy appeared first on College Baseball, MLB Draft, Prospects - Baseball America.

Adley Rutschman’s MLB debut? Missed it.

Gunnar Henderson’s? Missed it.

Grayson Rodriguez’s? Same.

So Jackson Holliday’s much anticipated MLB arrival was off limits to me, and almost anyone else in North Carolina (as well as many viewers in Virginia, Maryland and D.C.)

You know why.

It’s a bane of baseball.

(And yes, I know there are ways around it. Please don’t tell me I should be scouring Reddit threads or using VPNs, I’m talking about how this should be solved for fans in an easy/legal/non-technical way my parents could understand).

Days like yesterday are a frequent reminder of what baseball loses because of an arcane system. Most baseball fans in North Carolina couldn’t watch Holliday’s debut, even though they live a six-hour drive away from Camden Yards. Big Inning (which doesn’t black out pop-ins) helps, but as the O’s have gone from afterthought to AL East champs, for me their stars go from must-watch TV in the minors to can’t watch TV when they reach the majors.

Our blind spots in Eastern North Carolina are Orioles and Nationals games. No matter where you live in the U.S., you are likely blacked out of at least one team, and if you live in Iowa, MLB.tv becomes semi-useless with six teams on the blackout list.

It’s a problem for baseball, and one that MLB knows it has to fix.

“Blackouts are the kind of opposite side of the coin of reach. We need to deliver product to fans who want to watch on platforms that they customarily use at a realistic price. That is our No. 1 priority,” Rob Manfred told reporters at a 2023 press conference.

It’s easy to blame Major League Baseball for the problem, but it’s more reasonable to criticize MLB for allowing the problem to develop years ago. MLB officials have made it clear they realize the blackout system is bad for the sport’s growth. And whenever MLB has taken over a team’s RSN rights, it’s provided a way for people in that local market to stream games without blackouts.

Blackouts are an artifact of a different media world. In the 1980s/1990s when many of these regional sports networks sprung up, if you paid for television, you had your local cable system. Streaming wasn’t even a possibility in an era of 56K modems. There was very little choice, and even when satellite TV sprung up, your choices went from one provider to two or three.

Everyone who paid for TV channels in an area had cable or satellite. Your local teams were on the cable system (and on DirectTV), so no matter where you lived, you got to see your closest teams, whether they were local or not.

And that led to plenty of greed, which only added to the problem. There should have always been a rule that any area can only be within the “local” market of two teams at most. And logically, those markets should have had radiuses of a few hundred miles. If you live a day’s drive from any big league ballpark, no team is your “local” team.

Instead of tying blackout regions logically, it became a land grab with teams trying to claim as large an area as possible for their “local” footprint. That’s how you end up with the Cardinals, Twins, Cubs, White Sox, Brewers and Royals all claiming Iowa as home turf.

Something should have been done about that in the 1990s/2000s, as it defies logic to expect any cable system to carry six (!) different regional sports networks. All this did was ensure that baseball fans in Iowa would have no reason to try to watch a lot of MLB games.

But the blackout system in general made at least some sense in a world dominated by cable TV. In 2024, it just doesn’t. As cable systems saw vast swaths of their customers cut the cord, they focused more and more on cutting the fees they pay to channels. And RSNs, which had usually negotiated placement on the most basic cable TV tier, were a logical target.

Non-sports fans were paying significant chunks of ever-growing cable bills to RSN channels they never watched. As Internet TV providers sprung up, they found they could offer lower-cost bundles by avoiding adding these niche channels.

So nowadays, if I wanted to get MASN (the Orioles’ TV network) in North Carolina, I can’t get it through my local cable system. MASN lists only five cable systems in the entire state of North Carolina that offer it, and three of those are cable systems serving cities of fewer than 10,000 people. I can’t get it through the vast multitude of Internet TV providers (YouTube TV, Hulu, Sling, etc.). DirectTV is the only real option.

There’s some version of this story happening all around the country. Even diehard fans are unlikely to pick a TV provider solely because it offers an RSN, but in many cases, it’s not even an option. We now live in a world where a baseball fan may not even have a realistic option to pay to watch their “local” team.

And with this, baseball loses chances to get casual fans excited about these moments. It’s a problem that hopefully is nearing its expiration point.

By the time Ethan Holliday reaches the major leagues, hopefully these blackouts will be as much an ancient memory as The Baseball Network or radio-only games.

The post Cooper: MLB Blackouts Impact Baseball Fans’ Ability To Witness History appeared first on College Baseball, MLB Draft, Prospects - Baseball America.

The much-talked about pitcher injury epidemic. Velocity and max effort throwing certainly seems like a factor, but what about others like the pitch clock? New pitching development and pitch design? Managing workloads too critically or not critically enough? Changes to youth baseball and the velocity you’re seeing at those levels? What about shoulder injuries?

After that the two move on to the top pitching prospect in baseball, Paul Skenes who made quick work of Triple-A hitters in his first two starts of the season. They talk about how he’s looked and get into another conversation about fastball shape and why it’s not the end all be all for pitchers and also wonder about when he should be promoted to the majors.

Next the two pivot to the 2024 draft class and talk about the barrage of home runs that Wake Forest first baseman Nick Kurtz has hit in the last two weeks. Has he re-entered the 1-1 conversation and how does he stack up against fellow first baseman Jac Caglianone tool-for-tool? That leads into a conversation about the top of the draft class generally, and Ben asks about who the best pitcher in the class is after Chase Burns and Hagen Smith which leads to talk about ECU righthander Trey Yesavage. After that Ben brings up another righthander who might deserve a bit more attention in Vanderbilt righthander Bryce Cunningham.

The two close the podcast with thoughts on Boston’s contract extension of center fielder and shortstop Ceddanne Rafaela.

Time Stamps

(0:00) Jackson Holliday
(14:00) Retiring numbers
(18:00) The pitcher injury epidemic
(25:00) High school pitchers throwing harder
(33:00) Ben’s thoughts on shoulder injuries
(35:30) Is the pitch clock a factor?
(38:00) Paul Skenes and fastball shape
(49:00) When should Skenes be in the majors?
(55:00) Nick Kurtz’s home run binge
(1:05:00) Nick Kurtz vs. Jac Caglianone
(1:15:00) ECU RHP Trey Yesavage
(1:25:00) Vanderbilt RHP Bryce Cunningham
(1:30:00) The Ceddanne Rafaela contract extension

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The post Future Projection Episode 84: (Jackson) Holliday Season & Paul Skenes Domination appeared first on College Baseball, MLB Draft, Prospects - Baseball America.

His father, MLB all-star Matt Holliday, sat seated in the front row. Gunnar Henderson, the reigning American League Rookie of the Year, stood on deck. Fellow top overall pick and face of the franchise, Adley Rutschman, was perched in the Orioles dugout, his turn in the order two batters away.

Like it came for Henderson and Rutschman before him, there’s a feeling that Holliday’s time–and the Orioles’–is now. Baltimore, a team with World Series aspirations, saw enough in their 20-year-old wunderkind to call him up after just games with Triple-A Norfolk.

Holliday’s road to this moment, from projectable second-rounder with bloodlines in the early summer prep circuit in 2021 to baseball’s No. 1 overall prospect, was a whirlwind. A debate raged on draft day in 2022 as to who deserved the top overall selection. At the time, Holliday was not considered a clear-cut choice, sharing the spotlight with Druw Jones, another prep prospect with all-star bloodlines. But that debate quickly disappeared as Holliday laid waste to pro competition in his first full minor league season while rising from Low-A Delmarva to Triple-A Norfolk by season’s end. 

Now, Holliday debuted at Fenway Park soaking in the sights and sounds where his father once stood in a World Series game. 

“The history of this ballpark, I got to come here as a little kid and watch my dad play. To be out there and competing it’s very special,” Holliday said.

Now, Holliday was the big leaguer and his father and family that were in attendance to see him. His father Matt, grandfather Tom and younger brother Ethan, the top prospect in the 2025 class, were all in attendance, gifted tickets coordinated by former Red Sox World Series champion Kevin Millar. 

Perhaps the perk of being the son of a big leaguer, Holliday said after the game he didn’t feel overwhelmed by the moment.

“I wasn’t very nervous,” he said. “My results weren’t what I like, but I wasn’t nervous. I felt comfortable on defense and I felt comfortable at the plate.”

The game didn’t go as Holliday had hoped. It started off well, as Holliday made a strong play to start a 6-4-3 double play to end the second inning. In the top of the third Holliday stepped to the plate for the first time. He worked a 2-2 count after falling behind 1-2, but then swung through an 82 mph sweeper from Kutter Crawford for a swinging strike three. 

The next inning things didn’t get much better. Holliday ranged back on a popup off the bat of Tyler O’Neill that found its way into the shallow outfield grass. Holliday lost track of the ball and it landed over his shoulder for an RBI single scoring the Red Sox first run of the game. 

“With the wind kind of pushing in, I got a chance to come back and obviously I would have liked to make the play. It’s a tough one but it’s good experience and just to be able to learn from that,”  he said.

Holliday had a chance to redeem himself in the fifth as he stepped to the plate with no outs and Jordan Westburg on first. Instead, he hit into a fielder’s choice, as Westburg was out at second. 

Holliday stepped to the plate again in the top of sixth, with runners on second and third. He grounded out to second baseman Pablo Reyes, but it was enough to score Cowser from third and move Jordan Westburg to third. Holliday earned his first MLB RBI. 

The Orioles stormed back over the final three innings of the game, overcoming a 5-0 Red Sox lead heading into the top of the sixth. The Orioles scored seven total runs across the sixth and seventh innings, as Baltimore captured a victory in Holliday’s debut. 

It was a major momentous night for the Orioles, the Holliday family and the future of MLB. 

The post Top Prospect Jackson Holliday’s Orioles Debut A Family Affair At Fenway Park appeared first on College Baseball, MLB Draft, Prospects - Baseball America.

In most cases, it is still extremely early in the season, and we should refrain from overreacting to a week’s worth of major league performance and some Spring Training. Although this is generally true, there are some news items or actionable performance outcomes that we should be responding to. In other words, as a whole, we minimized movement-for-the-sake-of-movement. Even then, there have been some significant changes to dynasty values.

Rather than reporting on the individual changes up or down to a player’s value, we’ve bucketed them into groupings to help categorize why they’ve moved up or down so early in the season.

The post Dynasty Fantasy Stock Watch: Assessing Value In Early April appeared first on College Baseball, MLB Draft, Prospects - Baseball America.

There’s plenty to cover. Just this week, we’ve…

• Updated our 2024 Top 100 Prospects
• Highlighted 70 players scouts are buzzing about this spring
• Examined 10 intriguing Opening Day assignments
• Picked breakout teams

The Top 100 update is our first of the season and includes a fair share of changes, highlighted by the rise of Jared Jones. The Pirates righty has shown electric stuff so far in 2024 and jumped nearly 50 spots. We also re-organized the back of the top 10, plus there are a few new names to the list.

Have a question for J.J.? You can submit it below and they’ll start to populate at 2 p.m. ET. Can’t wait to chat!

The post Chat: Updating Our 2024 Top 100 Prospects, MiLB Opening Day & More appeared first on College Baseball, MLB Draft, Prospects - Baseball America.

With their lease expiring at the Oakland Coliseum after this season, the A’s reached an agreement with the Triple-A Sacramento River Cats to play home games at the latter’s Sutter Health Park for the 2025, 2026 and 2027 seasons. There is an option for a fourth season.

While the A’s retain some sense of continuity by moving 85 miles inland and to a city with a similar population, myriad questions surround the facility standards of Sacramento’s 14,000-capacity park. Issues with clubhouses, training rooms and ballpark lighting—which are all calibrated to Triple-A standards—must be resolved before next season.

But as far as the product on the field is concerned, we can examine how Sacramento’s park has played in Pacific Coast League competition to get a sense for how it might play as an American League venue in 2025.

The River Cats have existed since 2000 but have played just three full seasons in the 10-team PCL that resulted from the reconfigured minor leagues. 

Traditional park factors don’t tell the whole story for a field like Sacramento—whose three-year factor for runs scored is 80—because the River Cats play many road games in extremely hitter-friendly locales like Las Vegas, Reno and Salt Lake City. The influence of those parks tends to distort the bottom line. 

That’s why we will focus on output compiled only during Sacramento home games and then compare it with Oakland home games in 2023. Rank refers to standing among the 30 teams at that level, whether MLB or Triple-A.

In the past two seasons, Sacramento has played as one of the more pitcher-friendly Triple-A ballparks. Its rate for runs scored—this is the per-game average of runs scored and allowed in River Cats home games—resides comfortably near the bottom. 

The home run rate at Sacramento has fluctuated, but in the past two seasons it was comparable to the 2023 home run rate at the Oakland Coliseum.

While it is true that the PCL is a hitters’ league overall, Sacramento is consistently one of the exceptions, especially in the high-octane Western Division. No PCL team saw fewer runs in home games than Sacramento last season, and only Sugar Land featured fewer runs in 2022.

Sacramento’s Sutter Health Park favors Triple-A pitchers on a scale similar to way Oakland Coliseum plays for MLB pitchers. The dimensions of the two parks are also similar. It is roughly 400 feet to center field and about 330 feet down each line in both Oakland and Sacramento.   

This might be a coincidence. Or it might be a vestige of Sacramento entering existence as an Athletics affiliate in 2000. They remained partners through 2014, at which point Sacramento began an affiliation with the Giants.

For the first nine seasons of their existence, the River Cats led the entire minor leagues in attendance. Time will tell how well received the Athletics will be in Sacramento.

The post A’s Announce Move To Triple-A Sacramento: Here’s What To Expect appeared first on College Baseball, MLB Draft, Prospects - Baseball America.

This volume of thievery is especially impressive because fewer hitters stop at first base today than they have for most of the 30-team era. The total of singles plus walks plus hit by pitches last season was 43,962, the sixth-lowest total of the past 25 full seasons.

It’s no secret that a series of rules changes spurred the stolen base surge of 2023. What may be less appreciated is where those stolen bases are coming from.

Every batting order position saw an uptick in stolen-base attempts in 2023 compared with 2022. These comparison points are a perfect snapshot, given that both seasons featured the universal DH but were played with different rules governing time between pitches, disengagements from the pitching rubber and base size. 

Stolen Bases Attempted By Batting Order Position

The results are even more dramatic than this. 

Bottom-of-the-order hitters have fewer overall stolen-base opportunities because they bat fewer times and also reach base far less often than batters at the top of the order. If we restate the above as stolen bases attempted in relation to estimated times on first base we see the following.

Stolen Bases Attempted In Relation To Times On First Base

Now we see that No. 9 hitters took advantage of the new MLB milieu more than any other lineup position, and No. 8 hitters had the third-highest increase in stolen base attempt rate.

And while leadoff hitters increased their raw stolen base output more than any batting order position but No. 2 hitters, in fact their rate of attempts increased by about two per 100 times on first base, which was just the fifth-highest year-over-year increase.

When you stop to think, it makes sense that No. 8 and 9 hitters would attempt stolen bases nearly as often as leadoff hitters.

• Many players batting eighth or ninth are strong defensive players with plus athleticism and minus hitting ability. 

On that point, the leaders in stolen bases out of the No. 9 spot last year were Jorge Mateo (15), Myles Straw (13), Esteury Ruiz (13), Brenton Doyle (13) and Jose Caballero (12).   

It’s a similar story with No. 8 hitters. The stolen-base leaders were Brice Turang (14), Ji-Hwan Bae (12), Will Benson (11), Dairon Blanco (10) and Drew Waters (10).

• Bottom-of-the-order hitters are less effective hitters overall who are more likely to gain only one base when they do reach. Since it’s easier to steal second base than third or home, these players increase their value by stealing second base occasionally.

• The benefit of a No. 9 hitter gaining an extra base often outweighs the cost of being thrown out. Advancing into scoring position for the top of the order has tremendous value, especially with two outs. Scoring a runner from first base with two outs is unlikely, so moving to second base has enhanced value in that game state.

Even if the basestealer is unsuccessful, the leadoff hitter begins the next inning. 

Early in the 2024 season, we are seeing No. 8 and 9 hitters attempting stolen bases at the same high rate as leadoff hitters, though overall takeoff rates are lower than last year—caveat: It’s early, but still much higher than they were in 2022.

The post In New MLB Milieu, Bottom-Of-The-Order Hitters Have Become Unsung Men Of Steal appeared first on College Baseball, MLB Draft, Prospects - Baseball America.