Mitch Keller

Organization Prospect Rankings

• 
  Ranked Pittsburgh Pirates #1 prospect in 2020
  TRACK RECORD: Keller is the latest pitcher to top the Pirates' system, joining the likes of Gerrit Cole, Jameson Taillon and Tyler Glasnow. Keller has flashed the pure stuff to be a top-of-therotation starter, though the Pirates haven't gotten those results consistently from the previous group. Keller's chances might be better. He will work with a new big league pitching coach and likely a more updated organizational pitching philosophy, which has held Pirates pitching prospects back in recent years. Keller made his big league debut in 2019 and has already started to abandon the Pirates' penchant for heavy fastball usage. He ran up a 7.13 ERA over 48 innings in his debut, but he put a late emphasis on his slider and curveball and saw an uptick in strikeouts.
  
  SCOUTING REPORT: Velocity has been Keller's calling card since hitting 94 mph in the Rookielevel Gulf Coast League out of high school. He has since increased that velocity to sit 94-96 with sink down in the zone and has touched 99. He improved the control and command of his fastball after a mechanical adjustment in 2015 but has seen his control regress the last two seasons. His curveball has long looked like a plus pitch, with sharp 12-to-6 movement that leads to strikeouts and grounders. He added a slider last year, which is quickly looking like a plus offering with a 26.8 percent swinging strike rate. It was his second most-used pitch in the majors and was used more than his curveball in all but three starts at the end of the season. The slider was developed because of issues with Keller's changeup, which flashes average with fade but has largely been inconsistent and ineffective. He has big stuff and throws strikes, but he often gets too much of the plate and struggles with sequencing.
  
  THE FUTURE: The Pirates plan for Keller to be a critical part of their rotation, whether their plan is to win now or rebuild. If his slider is as good as it appeared in 2019, then a high strikeout rate should remain. If he can maintain the strikeout and walk rates and fine-tune his command, he should provide the Pirates with a mid- or front-of-therotation starter. He will open 2020 in the majors.
• 
  Ranked Pittsburgh Pirates #1 prospect in 2019
  Track Record: Keller's velocity spiked about 10 mph between his junior and senior years of high school, and the mid-90s fastball he displayed at showcase events instantly made him a major prospect. A second-round pick, he was committed to North Carolina but was lured into pro ball by the Pirates' $1 million bonus offer. He made the high Class A Florida State League all-star team in 2017 before being promoted to Double-A Altoona in August of that year. He began 2018 with the Curve and was promoted to Triple-A Indianapolis after allowing just four runs in five starts from May 31-June 25. He also drew the start for the U.S. in the Futures Game. Keller wasn't as consistent at Triple-A, giving up eight runs in 2.2 innings in his first start and finishing the season with a 4.82 ERA.
  
  Scouting Report: Keller's fastball and curveball are the best in the Pirates' system. He has put muscle on a rangy frame and sits 94-96 mph without a lot of exertion. When he rears back, he can reach 99 mph. He can locate to all four quadrants with late life, tilt and armside run. His plus curveball takes an 11-to-5 shape with hard downward bite. He's struggled for years to perfect his changeup. It doesn't have the velocity differential that the Pirates were hoping for, but it does have enough sink to it that it works as an average groundball pitch. Part of Keller's struggles in 2018 came because of mechanical problems on the backside of his delivery that led to his pitches coming out of his hand flat. He focused on eliminating those problems late in the season but still had the worst season of his career in terms of command. He walked a career-high 55 batters, and Triple-A batters hit .280 off him, evidence that he was missing too much in the middle of the plate.
  
  The Future: Keller will begin the 2019 season in Indianapolis and have to prove he can consistently dominate before the Pirates consider calling him up to the majors. His long-term future is as a top-to-middle of the rotation arm, most likely as a No. 2 or 3 starter, and the Pirates will likely want to see him make a big league start in September if not sooner. Keller's development is vital to the Pirates success in upcoming years.
• 
  Ranked Pittsburgh Pirates #1 prospect in 2018
  Keller, whose older brother Jon is a righthander in the Rockies system, became a major draft prospect between his junior and senior years of high school when he added 10 mph and started hitting the mid-90s at showcase events. He struck out 91 batters in 69 innings as a senior and was committed to North Carolina, but the Pirates selected him in the second round in 2014 and got him on board with a $1 million bonus. Keller started out strong in the Rookie-level Gulf Coast League in 2014 but missed much of 2015 with forearm problems. However, his dominant 2016 campaign at low Class A West Virginia turned him into a priority prospect when he combined swing-and-miss stuff with outstanding command, striking out 131 batters and walking just 18. His rise accelerated in 2017 despite a lower-back injury that cost him several weeks and a shin injury that also cost him time. Keller began the season with high Class A Bradenton and was promoted to Double-A Altoona in August. He pitched a one-hit, 90-pitch shutout in the Eastern League playoffs against Bowie. Keller has put on muscle to a rangy frame, which allows him to produce easy velocity without overly stressing his arm. His fastball sits 94-96 mph with late life, tilt and armside run. He can hit 99 when he rears back. His fastball command is improving, and he can throw it to all four quadrants against batters on either side of the plate. His heater sets up a big looping curveball with an 11-5 shape with hard downward bite. He still considers his fastball his best pitch, but the Pirates are trying to convince him to trust his curveball. Their next goal is to help him with a developing changeup, which is still an average pitch for him. It has armside run and sink, but he probably needs to take something off because it comes in too close to 90 mph. Keller projects to be a mid- to top-of-the-rotation starter and could eventually mesh with a big league staff mostly comprised of young, tall righthanders with skill sets similar to his. He will most likely begin 2018 at Altoona, but could find his way to Triple-A Indianapolis by the end of the season. A big league debut in 2019 seems probable.
• 
  Ranked Pittsburgh Pirates #2 prospect in 2017
  Keller climbed up many teams' draft boards when he added nearly 10 mph to his fastball between his junior and senior seasons of high school. The Pirates snatched him in the second round of the 2014 draft and signed him for an above-slot $1 million to forgo a North Carolina commitment. His older brother Jon is a pitcher in the Orioles system. Keller's fastball reaches 97 mph, sits at 93-95 and has the type of late life that causes plenty of swings and misses. He also has an above-average curveball with 11-to-5 shape that improved as the 2016 season progressed. He learned to take a little off his breaking ball in order to gain better control. Keller's changeup is also becoming an effective pitch. It drops just as it reaches the strike zone, generating many ground balls. Durability is a concern after Keller missed most of 2015 with forearm problems, but he stayed healthy throughout the 2016 season at low Class A West Virginia and finished strong with high Class A Bradenton, winning a pair of playoff starts to help the Marauders win the Florida State League title. He earns high marks for his maturity. For example, he immediately offered to help victims when flooding struck southern West Virginia. Keller will begin 2017 back with Bradenton and will likely end it at Double-A Altoona. He has the stuff, size and makeup to become a front-of-the-rotation stalwart and could reach the majors by late 2018 or early 2019.
• 
  Ranked Pittsburgh Pirates #18 prospect in 2016
  Keller's stock rose significantly after his fastball velocity took a big jump before his senior season of high school, going from 86-88 mph to 91-93 and hitting 95 with good sinking action. He wound up signing for $1 million as a 2014 second-round pick, which was nearly $135,000 over slot value, to forgo playing at North Carolina. Keller strained his forearm in spring training last year and did not make his season debut until Aug. 2 at Rookie-level Bristol. He struggled with the control and command of his fastball and curveball while making little progress with his changeup. While Keller did make six starts in the Appalachian League, his bout of forearm soreness triggered red flags because that injury often is a precursor to Tommy John surgery. He will get his first taste of full-season ball in 2016 at low Class A West Virginia, if healthy. The Pirates love sinker pitchers--and Keller has a good one--but he is a long way from the major leagues after logging just 47 pro innings so far.
• 
  Ranked Pittsburgh Pirates #9 prospect in 2015
  Keller seemed solid in his commitment to play college ball at North Carolina, but the Pirates were able to sign the 2014 second-rounder after offering him $1 million. His draft stock soared when his fastball jumped from the low 90s to the mid-90s as a Xavier High senior. His older brother Jon is a pitching prospect for the Orioles. Keller's plus fastball is his best pitch. He found that he was able to overpower Rookie-level Gulf Coast League hitters in 2014 nearly as easily as the high school hitters he faced in the past. Keller could well add another tick or two to his fastball because of his projectable frame. He also generates good sinking action and plenty of groundballs. His secondary pitches are not nearly as advanced and require plenty of projection. Keller needs to consistently finish his delivery on his curveball and is working to gain better feel for his changeup. He could stand to tighten his delivery in order to improve his control. The Pirates are aggressive in using defensive shifts throughout the organization, so Keller's groundball tendencies play into the philosophy very well. He will most likely begin 2015 at low Class A West Virginia. He has a lot of work to do, but the pieces are all present--including a willingness to learn--to excel as a stater.

Draft Prospects

• Ranked #76 prospect in 2014 draft
  Keller, who was not a presence on the showcase circuit last summer, has a ton of helium this spring after making significant developmental strides. He joins Keaton McKinney to give the Hawkeye State two prep arms that could go in the top three rounds. At 6-foot-3, 195 pounds, Keller has a lean, projectable build with long limbs and is a good athlete. His fastball sits 90-92 mph with late life and downhill plane from a high three-quarters slot, touching 95 in shorter stints. His curveball has average potential, flashing better, though he doesn't consistently finish the pitch. His changeup has improved and flashes average potential. Keller has an easy delivery that should give him average control. His arm circle has some length, with a wrist wrap in the back, but he throws strikes. Keller is the younger brother of Orioles farmhand Jon Keller, a righthander who was also drafted out of Xavier High before signing out of Tampa last year. Mitch is committed to North Carolina.

Minor League Top Prospects

• 
  Ranked International League #6 prospect in 2019
  Keller already has a pair of knockout weapons in his mid-90s fastball and powerful curveball. If he can get at least one of his changeup or slider over the plate with regularity, he’ll open the door to reaching his ceiling. Both pitches flash at least average potential but need to be thrown with better command. "He has refined some of that,” Indianapolis manager Brian Esposito said. "It’s about throwing the ball over the plate with quality execution.”
• 
  Ranked International League #11 prospect in 2018
  Keller cruised through Double-A and got promoted to the IL in late June. He struggled to a 7.98 ERA in his first five starts before adjusting and going 3-0, 2.20 in his final five starts. Keller continued to show an incredible ability to sit 94-95 mph and touch 97-98 with very little effort. With that gift he became too fastball dependent at times and resistant to throwing his secondaries, which got exposed at Triple-A. Keller’s curveball has plus action but he struggles to throw it for strikes, both in terms of getting it over or getting batters to chase it. When his changeup works it has fade to the lefthanded hitters and opens up the inside part of the plate, but it was also inconsistent and overall played fringey to average. Keller’s struggles to get his secondaries over led to a spike in his walk rate (3.8 BB/9) at Triple-A. However, he still missed plenty of bats with his plus-plus fastball and when he got his secondaries over, they flashed above-average to plus. That promise and the adjustments he made at the end of the year keep him in the upper echelon of pitching prospects.
• 
  Ranked Eastern League #6 prospect in 2018
  After spending a stint in the EL last year and a strong turn in the Arizona Fall League, Keller returned to Altoona this year to continue developing his changeup at Double-A. Keller’s one-two punch is his fastball and curveball. His heater consistently sat in the mid-90s and topped out at 97 mph with glove-side life, and his hook sat in the high 70s with snappy 12-to-6 break. Keller’s changeup remains further behind as his third pitch, though scouts upgraded it potentially average by the time he moved to Triple-A Indianapolis in late June. Keller’s durable body and outstanding stuff give him considerable upside. He just needs to continue to refine his changeup.
• 
  Ranked Florida State League #3 prospect in 2017
  Keller keeps pitching simple. He challenges hitters with one of the best fastballs in the minors, and he dominated the FSL in a return stint after finishing 2016 with Bradenton for one regular-season start and two playoff starts. He overcame a one-month bout with a back strain to earn a Double-A promotion in August, where he finished the season reaching 98 mph regularly with his fastball. Keller's fastball earns plus-plus grades from some scouts for its combination of 93-97 mph velocity and above-average life. He has elite fastball command for his age. Often Keller can go through a lineup once or twice without having to resort to his above-average to plus curveball or fringe-average changeup more than a handful of times. He has excellent athleticism and a sound delivery that produce that command. While he's often a two-pitch pitcher at this stage, his elite fastball command helps him earn comparisons with Curt Schilling for a fastball-heavy approach.
• 
  Ranked South Atlantic League #2 prospect in 2016
  In a league filled with pitching prospects, Keller still managed to stand out as a potential future ace. He announced his presence with three straight scoreless starts to begin the season in which he struck out 23 and walked no one in 15 innings. Keller's 93-97 mph fastball comes out of his hand easy, and he also showed consistently that he could generate swings and misses and weak contact with it in the strike zone because it has tilt and life. His fastball was dominant all season long, but his power breaking ball got better as the season progressed. Early on, he tried to make every curve a fire-breathing snapdragon that dived out of the zone, but later on he loosed his breaking ball early in the count for strikes, then saved his 11-to-5 hammer for later in counts. Keller's changeup also improved. It's a little hard at times, but with his ability to locate it and generate deception, it generates roll-over groundouts thanks to its late drop. Keller finished just as well as he started, ending his season with a 29-inning scoreless streak.
• 
  Ranked Florida Complex League #13 prospect in 2014
  Keller's stock took off in the spring, when he went from throwing in the high 80s to sitting in the low 90s and touching 95 mph. That helped compel the Pirates to draft him in the second round and sign him for $1 million. He pitched well in the GCL, albeit on a typically short leash for a first-year pitcher out of high school. Keller could grow into more velocity because he has physical projection left in his lean, long-armed frame. He delivers the ball downhill from a high-three-quarters slot, with a lively fastball that helps him generate plenty of groundballs. His curveball is his best secondary offering when he finishes the pitch, showing average or better potential. Keller worked on his changeup, and while it's still a pitch he needs to improve, it has flashed average potential. Some scouts think he should be a consistent strike-thrower, though his control was hit-or-miss in the GCL, and he does have a long arm action with a wrist wrap in the back.

Top 100 Rankings

• Ranked Baseball America's #52 prospect in 2020
• Ranked Baseball America's #26 prospect in 2019
• Ranked Baseball America's #12 prospect in 2018
• Ranked Baseball America's #22 prospect in 2017

• February, 2020 Scouting Report
  TRACK RECORD: Keller is the latest pitcher to top the Pirates' system, joining the likes of Gerrit Cole, Jameson Taillon and Tyler Glasnow. Keller has flashed the pure stuff to be a top-of-therotation starter, though the Pirates haven't gotten those results consistently from the previous group. Keller's chances might be better. He will work with a new big league pitching coach and likely a more updated organizational pitching philosophy, which has held Pirates pitching prospects back in recent years. Keller made his big league debut in 2019 and has already started to abandon the Pirates' penchant for heavy fastball usage. He ran up a 7.13 ERA over 48 innings in his debut, but he put a late emphasis on his slider and curveball and saw an uptick in strikeouts.
  
  SCOUTING REPORT: Velocity has been Keller's calling card since hitting 94 mph in the Rookielevel Gulf Coast League out of high school. He has since increased that velocity to sit 94-96 with sink down in the zone and has touched 99. He improved the control and command of his fastball after a mechanical adjustment in 2015 but has seen his control regress the last two seasons. His curveball has long looked like a plus pitch, with sharp 12-to-6 movement that leads to strikeouts and grounders. He added a slider last year, which is quickly looking like a plus offering with a 26.8 percent swinging strike rate. It was his second most-used pitch in the majors and was used more than his curveball in all but three starts at the end of the season. The slider was developed because of issues with Keller's changeup, which flashes average with fade but has largely been inconsistent and ineffective. He has big stuff and throws strikes, but he often gets too much of the plate and struggles with sequencing.
  
  THE FUTURE: The Pirates plan for Keller to be a critical part of their rotation, whether their plan is to win now or rebuild. If his slider is as good as it appeared in 2019, then a high strikeout rate should remain. If he can maintain the strikeout and walk rates and fine-tune his command, he should provide the Pirates with a mid- or front-of-therotation starter. He will open 2020 in the majors.
• December, 2018 Scouting Report
  Keller already has a pair of knockout weapons in his mid-90s fastball and powerful curveball. If he can get at least one of his changeup or slider over the plate with regularity, he’ll open the door to reaching his ceiling. Both pitches flash at least average potential but need to be thrown with better command. "He has refined some of that,” Indianapolis manager Brian Esposito said. "It’s about throwing the ball over the plate with quality execution.”
• July, 2018 Scouting Report
  After a couple of rough outings in May, Keller made some mechanical corrections and dominated Double-A competition in June, leading to a promotion from Altoona at the end of the month. The 6-foot-3, 195-pounder added a sinking changeup to a fastball that sits between 94-96 mph and big curveball, He allowed just two runs in 26 innings in his final four starts before his promotion, surrendering just one hit in eight shutout innings in his final start with the Curve. At the time of his promotion, he led the Eastern League in wins (nine), ranked third in ERA (2.72), seventh in WHIP (1.12) and ninth in strikeouts (76).
• December, 2016 Scouting Report
  Background: Keller climbed up many teams' draft boards when he added nearly 10 mph to his fastball between his junior and senior seasons of high school. The Pirates snatched him in the second round of the 2014 draft and signed him for an above-slot $1 million to forgo a North Carolina commitment. His older brother Jon is a pitcher in the Orioles system. Scouting Report: Keller's fastball reaches 97 mph, sits at 93-95 and has the type of late life that causes plenty of swings and misses. He also has an above-average curveball with 11-to-5 shape that improved as the 2016 season progressed. He learned to take a little off his breaking ball in order to gain better control. Keller's changeup is also becoming an effective pitch. It drops just as it reaches the strike zone, generating many ground balls. Durability is a concern after Keller missed most of 2015 with forearm problems, but he stayed healthy throughout the 2016 season at low Class A West Virginia and finished strong with high Class A Bradenton, winning a pair of playoff starts to help it win the Florida State League title. He earns high marks for his maturity. For example, he immediately offered to help victims when flooding struck southern West Virginia.
  
  The Future: Keller will begin the 2017 season back with Bradenton and will likely end it at Double-A Altoona. He has the stuff, size and makeup to become a front-of-the-rotation stalwart and could reach the majors by late 2018 or early 2019.